A RAG-Based Multi-Agent LLM System for Natural Hazard Resilience and Adaptation

Large language models (LLMs) are a transformational capability at the frontier of artificial intelligence and machine learning that can support decision-makers in addressing pressing societal challenges such as extreme natural hazard events. As generalized models, LLMs often struggle to provide context-specific information, particularly in areas requiring specialized knowledge. In this work we propose a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG)-based multi-agent LLM system to support analysis and decision-making in the context of natural hazards and extreme weather events. As a proof of concept, we present WildfireGPT, a specialized system focused on wildfire hazards. The architecture employs a user-centered, multi-agent design to deliver tailored risk insights across diverse stakeholder groups. By integrating natural hazard and extreme weather projection data, observational datasets, and scientific literature through an RAG framework, the system ensures both the accuracy and contextual relevance of the information it provides. Evaluation across ten expert-led case studies demonstrates that WildfireGPT significantly outperforms existing LLM-based solutions for decision support.

Information Retrieval for Climate Impact

The purpose of the MANILA24 Workshop on information retrieval for climate impact was to bring together researchers from academia, industry, governments, and NGOs to identify and discuss core research problems in information retrieval to assess climate change impacts. The workshop aimed to foster collaboration by bringing communities together that have so far not been very well connected -- information retrieval, natural language processing, systematic reviews, impact assessments, and climate science. The workshop brought together a diverse set of researchers and practitioners interested in contributing to the development of a technical research agenda for information retrieval to assess climate change impacts.

EAIRA: Establishing a Methodology for Evaluating AI Models as Scientific Research Assistants

Recent advancements have positioned AI, and particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), as transformative tools for scientific research, capable of addressing complex tasks that require reasoning, problem-solving, and decision-making. Their exceptional capabilities suggest their potential as scientific research assistants but also highlight the need for holistic, rigorous, and domain-specific evaluation to assess effectiveness in real-world scientific applications. This paper describes a multifaceted methodology for Evaluating AI models as scientific Research Assistants (EAIRA) developed at Argonne National Laboratory. This methodology incorporates four primary classes of evaluations. 1) Multiple Choice Questions to assess factual recall; 2) Open Response to evaluate advanced reasoning and problem-solving skills; 3) Lab-Style Experiments involving detailed analysis of capabilities as research assistants in controlled environments; and 4) Field-Style Experiments to capture researcher-LLM interactions at scale in a wide range of scientific domains and applications. These complementary methods enable a comprehensive analysis of LLM strengths and weaknesses with respect to their scientific knowledge, reasoning abilities, and adaptability. Recognizing the rapid pace of LLM advancements, we designed the methodology to evolve and adapt so as to ensure its continued relevance and applicability. This paper describes the methodology state at the end of February 2025. Although developed within a subset of scientific domains, the methodology is designed to be generalizable to a wide range of scientific domains.

Debiasing Watermarks for Large Language Models via Maximal Coupling

Watermarking language models is essential for distinguishing between human and machine-generated text and thus maintaining the integrity and trustworthiness of digital communication. We present a novel green/red list watermarking approach that partitions the token set into ``green'' and ``red'' lists, subtly increasing the generation probability for green tokens. To correct token distribution bias, our method employs maximal coupling, using a uniform coin flip to decide whether to apply bias correction, with the result embedded as a pseudorandom watermark signal. Theoretical analysis confirms this approach's unbiased nature and robust detection capabilities. Experimental results show that it outperforms prior techniques by preserving text quality while maintaining high detectability, and it demonstrates resilience to targeted modifications aimed at improving text quality. This research provides a promising watermarking solution for language models, balancing effective detection with minimal impact on text quality.

ChatVis: Automating Scientific Visualization with a Large Language Model

We develop an iterative assistant we call ChatVis that can synthetically generate Python scripts for data analysis and visualization using a large language model (LLM). The assistant allows a user to specify the operations in natural language, attempting to generate a Python script for the desired operations, prompting the LLM to revise the script as needed until it executes correctly. The iterations include an error detection and correction mechanism that extracts error messages from the execution of the script and subsequently prompts LLM to correct the error. Our method demonstrates correct execution on five canonical visualization scenarios, comparing results with ground truth. We also compared our results with scripts generated by several other LLMs without any assistance. In every instance, ChatVis successfully generated the correct script, whereas the unassisted LLMs failed to do so. The code is available on GitHub: https://github.com/tanwimallick/ChatVis/.

A Peek into Token Bias: Large Language Models Are Not Yet Genuine Reasoners

This study introduces a hypothesis-testing framework to assess whether large language models (LLMs) possess genuine reasoning abilities or primarily depend on token bias. We go beyond evaluating LLMs on accuracy; rather, we aim to investigate their token bias in solving logical reasoning tasks. Specifically, we develop carefully controlled synthetic datasets, featuring conjunction fallacy and syllogistic problems. Our framework outlines a list of hypotheses where token biases are readily identifiable, with all null hypotheses assuming genuine reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The findings in this study suggest, with statistical guarantee, that most LLMs still struggle with logical reasoning. While they may perform well on classic problems, their success largely depends on recognizing superficial patterns with strong token bias, thereby raising concerns about their actual reasoning and generalization abilities.

Multi-Modal and Multi-Agent Systems Meet Rationality: A Survey

Rationality is the quality of being guided by reason, characterized by logical thinking and decision-making that align with evidence and logical rules. This quality is essential for effective problem-solving, as it ensures that solutions are well-founded and systematically derived. Despite the advancements of large language models (LLMs) in generating human-like text with remarkable accuracy, they present biases inherited from the training data, inconsistency across different contexts, and difficulty understanding complex scenarios involving multiple layers of context. Therefore, recent research attempts to leverage the strength of multiple agents working collaboratively with various types of data and tools for enhanced consistency and reliability. To that end, this paper aims to understand whether multi-modal and multi-agent systems are advancing toward rationality by surveying the state-of-the-art works, identifying advancements over single-agent and single-modal systems in terms of rationality, and discussing open problems and future directions. We maintain an open repository at https://github.com/bowen-upenn/MMMA_Rationality.

WildfireGPT: Tailored Large Language Model for Wildfire Analysis

The recent advancement of large language models (LLMs) represents a transformational capability at the frontier of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). However, LLMs are generalized models, trained on extensive text corpus, and often struggle to provide context-specific information, particularly in areas requiring specialized knowledge such as wildfire details within the broader context of climate change. For decision-makers and policymakers focused on wildfire resilience and adaptation, it is crucial to obtain responses that are not only precise but also domain-specific, rather than generic. To that end, we developed WildfireGPT, a prototype LLM agent designed to transform user queries into actionable insights on wildfire risks. We enrich WildfireGPT by providing additional context such as climate projections and scientific literature to ensure its information is current, relevant, and scientifically accurate. This enables WildfireGPT to be an effective tool for delivering detailed, user-specific insights on wildfire risks to support a diverse set of end users, including researchers, engineers, urban planners, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators.

Analyzing Regional Impacts of Climate Change using Natural Language Processing Techniques

Understanding the multifaceted effects of climate change across diverse geographic locations is crucial for timely adaptation and the development of effective mitigation strategies. As the volume of scientific literature on this topic continues to grow exponentially, manually reviewing these documents has become an immensely challenging task. Utilizing Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to analyze this wealth of information presents an efficient and scalable solution. By gathering extensive amounts of peer-reviewed articles and studies, we can extract and process critical information about the effects of climate change in specific regions. We employ BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) for Named Entity Recognition (NER), which enables us to efficiently identify specific geographies within the climate literature. This, in turn, facilitates location-specific analyses. We conduct region-specific climate trend analyses to pinpoint the predominant themes or concerns related to climate change within a particular area, trace the temporal progression of these identified issues, and evaluate their frequency, severity, and potential development over time. These in-depth examinations of location-specific climate data enable the creation of more customized policy-making, adaptation, and mitigation strategies, addressing each region's unique challenges and providing more effective solutions rooted in data-driven insights. This approach, founded on a thorough exploration of scientific texts, offers actionable insights to a wide range of stakeholders, from policymakers to engineers to environmentalists. By proactively understanding these impacts, societies are better positioned to prepare, allocate resources wisely, and design tailored strategies to cope with future climate conditions, ensuring a more resilient future for all.

Wavelet-Inspired Multiscale Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting

Traffic forecasting is the foundation for intelligent transportation systems. Spatiotemporal graph neural networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in traffic forecasting. However, these methods do not explicitly model some of the natural characteristics in traffic data, such as the multiscale structure that encompasses spatial and temporal variations at different levels of granularity or scale. To that end, we propose a Wavelet-Inspired Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (WavGCRN) which combines multiscale analysis (MSA)-based method with Deep Learning (DL)-based method. In WavGCRN, the traffic data is decomposed into time-frequency components with Discrete Wavelet Transformation (DWT), constructing a multi-stream input structure; then Graph Convolutional Recurrent networks (GCRNs) are employed as encoders for each stream, extracting spatiotemporal features in different scales; and finally the learnable Inversed DWT and GCRN are combined as the decoder, fusing the information from all streams for traffic metrics reconstruction and prediction. Furthermore, road-network-informed graphs and data-driven graph learning are combined to accurately capture spatial correlation. The proposed method can offer well-defined interpretability, powerful learning capability, and competitive forecasting performance on real-world traffic data sets.