STOAT: Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Causal Inference Network

Spatial-temporal causal time series (STC-TS) involve region-specific temporal observations driven by causally relevant covariates and interconnected across geographic or network-based spaces. Existing methods often model spatial and temporal dynamics independently and overlook causality-driven probabilistic forecasting, limiting their predictive power. To address this, we propose STOAT (Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Causal Inference Network), a novel framework for probabilistic forecasting in STC-TS. The proposed method extends a causal inference approach by incorporating a spatial relation matrix that encodes interregional dependencies (e.g. proximity or connectivity), enabling spatially informed causal effect estimation. The resulting latent series are processed by deep probabilistic models to estimate the parameters of the distributions, enabling calibrated uncertainty modeling. We further explore multiple output distributions (e.g., Gaussian, Student's-$t$, Laplace) to capture region-specific variability. Experiments on COVID-19 data across six countries demonstrate that STOAT outperforms state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting models (DeepAR, DeepVAR, Deep State Space Model, etc.) in key metrics, particularly in regions with strong spatial dependencies. By bridging causal inference and geospatial probabilistic forecasting, STOAT offers a generalizable framework for complex spatial-temporal tasks, such as epidemic management.

A Probabilistic Framework for Imputing Genetic Distances in Spatiotemporal Pathogen Models

Pathogen genome data offers valuable structure for spatial models, but its utility is limited by incomplete sequencing coverage. We propose a probabilistic framework for inferring genetic distances between unsequenced cases and known sequences within defined transmission chains, using time-aware evolutionary distance modeling. The method estimates pairwise divergence from collection dates and observed genetic distances, enabling biologically plausible imputation grounded in observed divergence patterns, without requiring sequence alignment or known transmission chains. Applied to highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5 cases in wild birds in the United States, this approach supports scalable, uncertainty-aware augmentation of genomic datasets and enhances the integration of evolutionary information into spatiotemporal modeling workflows.

Optimizing Electric Vehicle Charging Station Locations: A Data-driven System with Multi-source Fusion

With the growing electric vehicles (EVs) charging demand, urban planners face the challenges of providing charging infrastructure at optimal locations. For example, range anxiety during long-distance travel and the inadequate distribution of residential charging stations are the major issues many cities face. To achieve reasonable estimation and deployment of the charging demand, we develop a data-driven system based on existing EV trips in New South Wales (NSW) state, Australia, incorporating multiple factors that enhance the geographical feasibility of recommended charging stations. Our system integrates data sources including EV trip data, geographical data such as route data and Local Government Area (LGA) boundaries, as well as features like fire and flood risks, and Points of Interest (POIs). We visualize our results to intuitively demonstrate the findings from our data-driven, multi-source fusion system, and evaluate them through case studies. The outcome of this work can provide a platform for discussion to develop new insights that could be used to give guidance on where to position future EV charging stations.

Information Retrieval for Climate Impact

The purpose of the MANILA24 Workshop on information retrieval for climate impact was to bring together researchers from academia, industry, governments, and NGOs to identify and discuss core research problems in information retrieval to assess climate change impacts. The workshop aimed to foster collaboration by bringing communities together that have so far not been very well connected -- information retrieval, natural language processing, systematic reviews, impact assessments, and climate science. The workshop brought together a diverse set of researchers and practitioners interested in contributing to the development of a technical research agenda for information retrieval to assess climate change impacts.

Embedding spatial context in urban traffic forecasting with contrastive pre-training

Urban traffic forecasting is a commonly encountered problem, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as urban planning, civil engineering and transport. In this paper, we study the enhancement of traffic forecasting with pre-training, focusing on spatio-temporal graph methods. While various machine learning methods to solve traffic forecasting problems have been explored and extensively studied, there is a gap of a more contextual approach: studying how relevant non-traffic data can improve prediction performance on traffic forecasting problems. We call this data spatial context. We introduce a novel method of combining road and traffic information through the notion of a traffic quotient graph, a quotient graph formed from road geometry and traffic sensors. We also define a way to encode this relationship in the form of a geometric encoder, pre-trained using contrastive learning methods and enhanced with OpenStreetMap data. We introduce and discuss ways to integrate this geometric encoder with existing graph neural network (GNN)-based traffic forecasting models, using a contrastive pre-training paradigm. We demonstrate the potential for this hybrid model to improve generalisation and performance with zero additional traffic data. Code for this paper is available at https://github.com/mattchrlw/forecasting-on-new-roads.

Harnessing Test-time Adaptation for NLU tasks Involving Dialects of English

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is an excellent method which helps generalize models across domains, tasks, and distributions without the use of labeled datasets. Thus, TTA is very useful in natural language processing (NLP) in the dialectal setting, since oftentimes, models are trained on Standard American English (SAE), evaluated on Indian English or Nigerian English, of which distribution differs significantly from the former. This is especially useful since dialectal datasets are scarce. In this paper, we explore one of the most famous TTA techniques, SHOT, in dialectal NLP. We finetune and evaluate SHOT on different combinations of dialectal GLUE. Our findings show that SHOT is a viable technique when labeled datasets are unavailable. We also theoretically propose the concept of dialectal gap and show that it has a positive correlation with the effectiveness of SHOT. We also find that in many cases, finetuning on SAE yields higher performance than finetuning on dialectal data. Our code is available at https://github.com/dukenguyenxyz/dialect-adaptation

COMODO: Cross-Modal Video-to-IMU Distillation for Efficient Egocentric Human Activity Recognition

Egocentric video-based models capture rich semantic information and have demonstrated strong performance in human activity recognition (HAR). However, their high power consumption, privacy concerns, and dependence on lighting conditions limit their feasibility for continuous on-device recognition. In contrast, inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensors offer an energy-efficient and privacy-preserving alternative, yet they suffer from limited large-scale annotated datasets, leading to weaker generalization in downstream tasks. To bridge this gap, we propose COMODO, a cross-modal self-supervised distillation framework that transfers rich semantic knowledge from the video modality to the IMU modality without requiring labeled annotations. COMODO leverages a pretrained and frozen video encoder to construct a dynamic instance queue, aligning the feature distributions of video and IMU embeddings. By distilling knowledge from video representations, our approach enables the IMU encoder to inherit rich semantic information from video while preserving its efficiency for real-world applications. Experiments on multiple egocentric HAR datasets demonstrate that COMODO consistently improves downstream classification performance, achieving results comparable to or exceeding fully supervised fine-tuned models. Moreover, COMODO exhibits strong cross-dataset generalization. Benefiting from its simplicity, our method is also generally applicable to various video and time-series pre-trained models, offering the potential to leverage more powerful teacher and student foundation models in future research. The code is available at https://github.com/Breezelled/COMODO .

TrajLLM: A Modular LLM-Enhanced Agent-Based Framework for Realistic Human Trajectory Simulation

This work leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate human mobility, addressing challenges like high costs and privacy concerns in traditional models. Our hierarchical framework integrates persona generation, activity selection, and destination prediction, using real-world demographic and psychological data to create realistic movement patterns. Both physical models and language models are employed to explore and demonstrate different methodologies for human mobility simulation. By structuring data with summarization and weighted density metrics, the system ensures scalable memory management while retaining actionable insights. Preliminary results indicate that LLM-driven simulations align with observed real-world patterns, offering scalable, interpretable insights for social problems such as urban planning, traffic management, and public health. The framework's ability to dynamically generate personas and activities enables it to provide adaptable and realistic daily routines. This study demonstrates the transformative potential of LLMs in advancing mobility modeling for societal and urban applications. The source code and interactive demo for our framework are available at https://github.com/cju0/TrajLLM.

Enhancing Conversational Agents with Theory of Mind: Aligning Beliefs, Desires, and Intentions for Human-Like Interaction

Natural language interaction with agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI), driven by Large Language Models (LLMs), is expected to remain a dominant paradigm in the near future. While humans instinctively align their communication with mental states -- an ability known as Theory of Mind (ToM), current LLM powered systems exhibit significant limitations in this regard. This study examines the extent to which open source language models (LLaMA) can capture and preserve ToM related information and how effectively it contributes to consistent ToM reasoning in generated responses. We further investigate whether explicit manipulation of ToM related components, such as beliefs, desires, and intentions, can enhance response alignment. Experiments on two LLaMA 3 variants demonstrate that incorporating ToM informed alignment improves response quality, achieving win rates of 67 and 63 percent for the 3B and 8B models, respectively. These findings highlight the potential of ToM driven strategies to improve alignment in LLM based conversational agents.

Resolution-Agnostic Transformer-based Climate Downscaling

Understanding future weather changes at regional and local scales is crucial for planning and decision-making, particularly in the context of extreme weather events, as well as for broader applications in agriculture, insurance, and infrastructure development. However, the computational cost of downscaling Global Climate Models (GCMs) to the fine resolutions needed for such applications presents a significant barrier. Drawing on advancements in weather forecasting models, this study introduces a cost-efficient downscaling method using a pretrained Earth Vision Transformer (Earth ViT) model. Initially trained on ERA5 data to downscale from 50 km to 25 km resolution, the model is then tested on the higher resolution BARRA-SY dataset at a 3 km resolution. Remarkably, it performs well without additional training, demonstrating its ability to generalize across different resolutions. This approach holds promise for generating large ensembles of regional climate simulations by downscaling GCMs with varying input resolutions without incurring additional training costs. Ultimately, this method could provide more comprehensive estimates of potential future changes in key climate variables, aiding in effective planning for extreme weather events and climate change adaptation strategies.