TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

PAITS: Pretraining and Augmentation for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series

Real-world time series data that commonly reflect sequential human behavior are often uniquely irregularly sampled and sparse, with highly nonuniform sampling over time and entities. Yet, commonly-used pretraining and augmentation methods for time series are not specifically designed for such scenarios. In this paper, we present PAITS (Pretraining and Augmentation for Irregularly-sampled Time Series), a framework for identifying suitable pretraining strategies for sparse and irregularly sampled time series datasets. PAITS leverages a novel combination of NLP-inspired pretraining tasks and augmentations, and a random search to identify an effective strategy for a given dataset. We demonstrate that different datasets benefit from different pretraining choices. Compared with prior methods, our approach is better able to consistently improve pretraining across multiple datasets and domains. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/irregular_timeseries_pretraining}.

Tool Documentation Enables Zero-Shot Tool-Usage with Large Language Models

Today, large language models (LLMs) are taught to use new tools by providing a few demonstrations of the tool's usage. Unfortunately, demonstrations are hard to acquire, and can result in undesirable biased usage if the wrong demonstration is chosen. Even in the rare scenario that demonstrations are readily available, there is no principled selection protocol to determine how many and which ones to provide. As tasks grow more complex, the selection search grows combinatorially and invariably becomes intractable. Our work provides an alternative to demonstrations: tool documentation. We advocate the use of tool documentation, descriptions for the individual tool usage, over demonstrations. We substantiate our claim through three main empirical findings on 6 tasks across both vision and language modalities. First, on existing benchmarks, zero-shot prompts with only tool documentation are sufficient for eliciting proper tool usage, achieving performance on par with few-shot prompts. Second, on a newly collected realistic tool-use dataset with hundreds of available tool APIs, we show that tool documentation is significantly more valuable than demonstrations, with zero-shot documentation significantly outperforming few-shot without documentation. Third, we highlight the benefits of tool documentations by tackling image generation and video tracking using just-released unseen state-of-the-art models as tools. Finally, we highlight the possibility of using tool documentation to automatically enable new applications: by using nothing more than the documentation of GroundingDino, Stable Diffusion, XMem, and SAM, LLMs can re-invent the functionalities of the just-released Grounded-SAM and Track Anything models.

SQL-PaLM: Improved Large Language Model Adaptation for Text-to-SQL

One impressive emergent capability of large language models (LLMs) is generation of code, including Structured Query Language (SQL) for databases. For the task of converting natural language text to SQL queries, Text-to-SQL, adaptation of LLMs is of paramount importance, both in in-context learning and fine-tuning settings, depending on the amount of adaptation data used. In this paper, we propose an LLM-based Text-to-SQL model SQL-PaLM, leveraging on PaLM-2, that pushes the state-of-the-art in both settings. Few-shot SQL-PaLM is based on an execution-based self-consistency prompting approach designed for Text-to-SQL, and achieves 77.3% in test-suite accuracy on Spider, which to our best knowledge is the first to outperform previous state-of-the-art with fine-tuning by a significant margin, 4%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the fine-tuned SQL-PALM outperforms it further by another 1%. Towards applying SQL-PaLM to real-world scenarios we further evaluate its robustness on other challenging variants of Spider and demonstrate the superior generalization capability of SQL-PaLM. In addition, via extensive case studies, we demonstrate the impressive intelligent capabilities and various success enablers of LLM-based Text-to-SQL.

LANISTR: Multimodal Learning from Structured and Unstructured Data

Multimodal large-scale pretraining has shown impressive performance gains for unstructured data including language, image, audio, and video. Yet, the scenario most prominent in real-world applications is the existence of combination of structured (including tabular and time-series) and unstructured data, and this has so far been understudied. Towards this end, we propose LANISTR, a novel attention-based framework to learn from LANguage, Image, and STRuctured data. We introduce a new multimodal fusion module with a similarity-based multimodal masking loss that enables LANISTR to learn cross-modal relations from large-scale multimodal data with missing modalities during training and test time. On two publicly available challenging datasets, MIMIC-IV and Amazon Product Review, LANISTR achieves absolute improvements of 6.47% (AUROC) and up to 17.69% (accuracy), respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art multimodal models while showing superior generalization capabilities.

Universal Self-adaptive Prompting

A hallmark of modern large language models (LLMs) is their impressive general zero-shot and few-shot abilities, often elicited through prompt-based and/or in-context learning. However, while highly coveted and being the most general, zero-shot performances in LLMs are still typically weaker due to the lack of guidance and the difficulty of applying existing automatic prompt design methods in general tasks when ground-truth labels are unavailable. In this study, we address this by presenting Universal Self-adaptive Prompting (USP), an automatic prompt design approach specifically tailored for zero-shot learning (while compatible with few-shot). Requiring only a small amount of unlabeled data & an inference-only LLM, USP is highly versatile: to achieve universal prompting, USP categorizes a possible NLP task into one of the three possible task types, and then uses a corresponding selector to select the most suitable queries & zero-shot model-generated responses as pseudo-demonstrations, thereby generalizing ICL to the zero-shot setup in a fully automated way. We evaluate zero-shot USP with two PaLM models, and demonstrate performances that are considerably stronger than standard zero-shot baselines and are comparable to or even superior than few-shot baselines across more than 20 natural language understanding (NLU) and natural language generation (NLG) tasks.

Better Zero-Shot Reasoning with Self-Adaptive Prompting

Modern large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities at sophisticated tasks, often through step-by-step reasoning similar to humans. This is made possible by their strong few and zero-shot abilities -- they can effectively learn from a handful of handcrafted, completed responses ("in-context examples"), or are prompted to reason spontaneously through specially designed triggers. Nonetheless, some limitations have been observed. First, performance in the few-shot setting is sensitive to the choice of examples, whose design requires significant human effort. Moreover, given the diverse downstream tasks of LLMs, it may be difficult or laborious to handcraft per-task labels. Second, while the zero-shot setting does not require handcrafting, its performance is limited due to the lack of guidance to the LLMs. To address these limitations, we propose Consistency-based Self-adaptive Prompting (COSP), a novel prompt design method for LLMs. Requiring neither handcrafted responses nor ground-truth labels, COSP selects and builds the set of examples from the LLM zero-shot outputs via carefully designed criteria that combine consistency, diversity and repetition. In the zero-shot setting for three different LLMs, we show that using only LLM predictions, COSP improves performance up to 15% compared to zero-shot baselines and matches or exceeds few-shot baselines for a range of reasoning tasks.

FormNetV2: Multimodal Graph Contrastive Learning for Form Document Information Extraction

The recent advent of self-supervised pre-training techniques has led to a surge in the use of multimodal learning in form document understanding. However, existing approaches that extend the mask language modeling to other modalities require careful multi-task tuning, complex reconstruction target designs, or additional pre-training data. In FormNetV2, we introduce a centralized multimodal graph contrastive learning strategy to unify self-supervised pre-training for all modalities in one loss. The graph contrastive objective maximizes the agreement of multimodal representations, providing a natural interplay for all modalities without special customization. In addition, we extract image features within the bounding box that joins a pair of tokens connected by a graph edge, capturing more targeted visual cues without loading a sophisticated and separately pre-trained image embedder. FormNetV2 establishes new state-of-the-art performance on FUNSD, CORD, SROIE and Payment benchmarks with a more compact model size.

Distilling Step-by-Step! Outperforming Larger Language Models with Less Training Data and Smaller Model Sizes

Deploying large language models (LLMs) is challenging because they are memory inefficient and compute-intensive for practical applications. In reaction, researchers train smaller task-specific models by either finetuning with human labels or distilling using LLM-generated labels. However, finetuning and distillation require large amounts of training data to achieve comparable performance to LLMs. We introduce Distilling step-by-step, a new mechanism that (a) trains smaller models that outperform LLMs, and (b) achieves so by leveraging less training data needed by finetuning or distillation. Our method extracts LLM rationales as additional supervision for small models within a multi-task training framework. We present three findings across 4 NLP benchmarks: First, compared to both finetuning and distillation, our mechanism achieves better performance with much fewer labeled/unlabeled training examples. Second, compared to LLMs, we achieve better performance using substantially smaller model sizes. Third, we reduce both the model size and the amount of data required to outperform LLMs; our 770M T5 model outperforms the 540B PaLM model using only 80% of available data on a benchmark task.

ASPEST: Bridging the Gap Between Active Learning and Selective Prediction

Selective prediction aims to learn a reliable model that abstains from making predictions when the model uncertainty is high. These predictions can then be deferred to a human expert for further evaluation. In many real-world scenarios, however, the distribution of test data is different from the training data. This results in more inaccurate predictions, necessitating increased human labeling, which is difficult and expensive in many scenarios. Active learning circumvents this difficulty by only querying the most informative examples and, in several cases, has been shown to lower the overall labeling effort. In this work, we bridge the gap between selective prediction and active learning, proposing a new learning paradigm called active selective prediction which learns to query more informative samples from the shifted target domain while increasing accuracy and coverage. For this new problem, we propose a simple but effective solution, ASPEST, that trains ensembles of model snapshots using self-training with their aggregated outputs as pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on several image, text and structured datasets with domain shifts demonstrate that active selective prediction can significantly outperform prior work on selective prediction and active learning (e.g. on the MNIST$\to$SVHN benchmark with the labeling budget of 100, ASPEST improves the AUC metric from 79.36% to 88.84%) and achieves more optimal utilization of humans in the loop.