Variance Reduction Methods for Sublinear Reinforcement Learning

This work considers the problem of provably optimal reinforcement learning for episodic finite horizon MDPs, i.e. how an agent learns to maximize his/her long term reward in an uncertain environment. The main contribution is in providing a novel algorithm --- Variance-reduced Upper Confidence Q-learning (vUCQ) --- which enjoys a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{HSAT} + H^5SA)$, where the $T$ is the number of time steps the agent acts in the MDP, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $H$ is the (episodic) horizon time. This is the first regret bound that is both sub-linear in the model size and asymptotically optimal. The algorithm is sub-linear in that the time to achieve $\epsilon$-average regret for any constant $\epsilon$ is $O(SA)$, which is a number of samples that is far less than that required to learn any non-trivial estimate of the transition model (the transition model is specified by $O(S^2A)$ parameters). The importance of sub-linear algorithms is largely the motivation for algorithms such as $Q$-learning and other "model free" approaches. vUCQ algorithm also enjoys minimax optimal regret in the long run, matching the $\Omega(\sqrt{HSAT})$ lower bound. Variance-reduced Upper Confidence Q-learning (vUCQ) is a successive refinement method in which the algorithm reduces the variance in $Q$-value estimates and couples this estimation scheme with an upper confidence based algorithm. Technically, the coupling of both of these techniques is what leads to the algorithm enjoying both the sub-linear regret property and the asymptotically optimal regret.

Prediction with a Short Memory

We consider the problem of predicting the next observation given a sequence of past observations, and consider the extent to which accurate prediction requires complex algorithms that explicitly leverage long-range dependencies. Perhaps surprisingly, our positive results show that for a broad class of sequences, there is an algorithm that predicts well on average, and bases its predictions only on the most recent few observation together with a set of simple summary statistics of the past observations. Specifically, we show that for any distribution over observations, if the mutual information between past observations and future observations is upper bounded by $I$, then a simple Markov model over the most recent $I/\epsilon$ observations obtains expected KL error $\epsilon$---and hence $\ell_1$ error $\sqrt{\epsilon}$---with respect to the optimal predictor that has access to the entire past and knows the data generating distribution. For a Hidden Markov Model with $n$ hidden states, $I$ is bounded by $\log n$, a quantity that does not depend on the mixing time, and we show that the trivial prediction algorithm based on the empirical frequencies of length $O(\log n/\epsilon)$ windows of observations achieves this error, provided the length of the sequence is $d^{\Omega(\log n/\epsilon)}$, where $d$ is the size of the observation alphabet. We also establish that this result cannot be improved upon, even for the class of HMMs, in the following two senses: First, for HMMs with $n$ hidden states, a window length of $\log n/\epsilon$ is information-theoretically necessary to achieve expected $\ell_1$ error $\sqrt{\epsilon}$. Second, the $d^{\Theta(\log n/\epsilon)}$ samples required to estimate the Markov model for an observation alphabet of size $d$ is necessary for any computationally tractable learning algorithm, assuming the hardness of strongly refuting a certain class of CSPs.

Learning Overcomplete HMMs

We study the problem of learning overcomplete HMMs---those that have many hidden states but a small output alphabet. Despite having significant practical importance, such HMMs are poorly understood with no known positive or negative results for efficient learning. In this paper, we present several new results---both positive and negative---which help define the boundaries between the tractable and intractable settings. Specifically, we show positive results for a large subclass of HMMs whose transition matrices are sparse, well-conditioned, and have small probability mass on short cycles. On the other hand, we show that learning is impossible given only a polynomial number of samples for HMMs with a small output alphabet and whose transition matrices are random regular graphs with large degree. We also discuss these results in the context of learning HMMs which can capture long-term dependencies.

Stochastic subgradient method converges on tame functions

This work considers the question: what convergence guarantees does the stochastic subgradient method have in the absence of smoothness and convexity? We prove that the stochastic subgradient method, on any semialgebraic locally Lipschitz function, produces limit points that are all first-order stationary. More generally, our result applies to any function with a Whitney stratifiable graph. In particular, this work endows the stochastic subgradient method, and its proximal extension, with rigorous convergence guarantees for a wide class of problems arising in data science---including all popular deep learning architectures.

Towards Generalization and Simplicity in Continuous Control

This work shows that policies with simple linear and RBF parameterizations can be trained to solve a variety of continuous control tasks, including the OpenAI gym benchmarks. The performance of these trained policies are competitive with state of the art results, obtained with more elaborate parameterizations such as fully connected neural networks. Furthermore, existing training and testing scenarios are shown to be very limited and prone to over-fitting, thus giving rise to only trajectory-centric policies. Training with a diverse initial state distribution is shown to produce more global policies with better generalization. This allows for interactive control scenarios where the system recovers from large on-line perturbations; as shown in the supplementary video.

Variance Reduction for Policy Gradient with Action-Dependent Factorized Baselines

Policy gradient methods have enjoyed great success in deep reinforcement learning but suffer from high variance of gradient estimates. The high variance problem is particularly exasperated in problems with long horizons or high-dimensional action spaces. To mitigate this issue, we derive a bias-free action-dependent baseline for variance reduction which fully exploits the structural form of the stochastic policy itself and does not make any additional assumptions about the MDP. We demonstrate and quantify the benefit of the action-dependent baseline through both theoretical analysis as well as numerical results, including an analysis of the suboptimality of the optimal state-dependent baseline. The result is a computationally efficient policy gradient algorithm, which scales to high-dimensional control problems, as demonstrated by a synthetic 2000-dimensional target matching task. Our experimental results indicate that action-dependent baselines allow for faster learning on standard reinforcement learning benchmarks and high-dimensional hand manipulation and synthetic tasks. Finally, we show that the general idea of including additional information in baselines for improved variance reduction can be extended to partially observed and multi-agent tasks.

Leverage Score Sampling for Faster Accelerated Regression and ERM

Given a matrix $\mathbf{A}\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$ and a vector $b \in\mathbb{R}^{d}$, we show how to compute an $\epsilon$-approximate solution to the regression problem $ \min_{x\in\mathbb{R}^{d}}\frac{1}{2} \|\mathbf{A} x - b\|_{2}^{2} $ in time $ \tilde{O} ((n+\sqrt{d\cdot\kappa_{\text{sum}}})\cdot s\cdot\log\epsilon^{-1}) $ where $\kappa_{\text{sum}}=\mathrm{tr}\left(\mathbf{A}^{\top}\mathbf{A}\right)/\lambda_{\min}(\mathbf{A}^{T}\mathbf{A})$ and $s$ is the maximum number of non-zero entries in a row of $\mathbf{A}$. Our algorithm improves upon the previous best running time of $ \tilde{O} ((n+\sqrt{n \cdot\kappa_{\text{sum}}})\cdot s\cdot\log\epsilon^{-1})$. We achieve our result through a careful combination of leverage score sampling techniques, proximal point methods, and accelerated coordinate descent. Our method not only matches the performance of previous methods, but further improves whenever leverage scores of rows are small (up to polylogarithmic factors). We also provide a non-linear generalization of these results that improves the running time for solving a broader class of ERM problems.

Learning Features of Music from Scratch

This paper introduces a new large-scale music dataset, MusicNet, to serve as a source of supervision and evaluation of machine learning methods for music research. MusicNet consists of hundreds of freely-licensed classical music recordings by 10 composers, written for 11 instruments, together with instrument/note annotations resulting in over 1 million temporal labels on 34 hours of chamber music performances under various studio and microphone conditions. The paper defines a multi-label classification task to predict notes in musical recordings, along with an evaluation protocol, and benchmarks several machine learning architectures for this task: i) learning from spectrogram features; ii) end-to-end learning with a neural net; iii) end-to-end learning with a convolutional neural net. These experiments show that end-to-end models trained for note prediction learn frequency selective filters as a low-level representation of audio.

Minimal Realization Problems for Hidden Markov Models

Consider a stationary discrete random process with alphabet size d, which is assumed to be the output process of an unknown stationary Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Given the joint probabilities of finite length strings of the process, we are interested in finding a finite state generative model to describe the entire process. In particular, we focus on two classes of models: HMMs and quasi-HMMs, which is a strictly larger class of models containing HMMs. In the main theorem, we show that if the random process is generated by an HMM of order less or equal than k, and whose transition and observation probability matrix are in general position, namely almost everywhere on the parameter space, both the minimal quasi-HMM realization and the minimal HMM realization can be efficiently computed based on the joint probabilities of all the length N strings, for N > 4 lceil log_d(k) rceil +1. In this paper, we also aim to compare and connect the two lines of literature: realization theory of HMMs, and the recent development in learning latent variable models with tensor decomposition techniques.

Convergence Rates of Active Learning for Maximum Likelihood Estimation

An active learner is given a class of models, a large set of unlabeled examples, and the ability to interactively query labels of a subset of these examples; the goal of the learner is to learn a model in the class that fits the data well. Previous theoretical work has rigorously characterized label complexity of active learning, but most of this work has focused on the PAC or the agnostic PAC model. In this paper, we shift our attention to a more general setting -- maximum likelihood estimation. Provided certain conditions hold on the model class, we provide a two-stage active learning algorithm for this problem. The conditions we require are fairly general, and cover the widely popular class of Generalized Linear Models, which in turn, include models for binary and multi-class classification, regression, and conditional random fields. We provide an upper bound on the label requirement of our algorithm, and a lower bound that matches it up to lower order terms. Our analysis shows that unlike binary classification in the realizable case, just a single extra round of interaction is sufficient to achieve near-optimal performance in maximum likelihood estimation. On the empirical side, the recent work in ~\cite{Zhang12} and~\cite{Zhang14} (on active linear and logistic regression) shows the promise of this approach.