Prescriptive Scaling Reveals the Evolution of Language Model Capabilities

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

Weight Decay Improves Language Model Plasticity

The prevailing paradigm in large language model (LLM) development is to pretrain a base model, then perform further training to improve performance and model behavior. However, hyperparameter optimization and scaling laws have been studied primarily from the perspective of the base model's validation loss, ignoring downstream adaptability. In this work, we study pretraining from the perspective of model plasticity, that is, the ability of the base model to successfully adapt to downstream tasks through fine-tuning. We focus on the role of weight decay, a key regularization parameter during pretraining. Through systematic experiments, we show that models trained with larger weight decay values are more plastic, meaning they show larger performance gains when fine-tuned on downstream tasks. This phenomenon can lead to counterintuitive trade-offs where base models that perform worse after pretraining can perform better after fine-tuning. Further investigation of weight decay's mechanistic effects on model behavior reveals that it encourages linearly separable representations, regularizes attention matrices, and reduces overfitting on the training data. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the importance of using evaluation metrics beyond cross-entropy loss for hyperparameter optimization and casts light on the multifaceted role of that a single optimization hyperparameter plays in shaping model behavior.

Stop Training for the Worst: Progressive Unmasking Accelerates Masked Diffusion Training

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising approach for generative modeling in discrete spaces. By generating sequences in any order and allowing for parallel decoding, they enable fast inference and strong performance on non-causal tasks. However, this flexibility comes with a training complexity trade-off: MDMs train on an exponentially large set of masking patterns, which is not only computationally expensive, but also creates a train--test mismatch between the random masks used in training and the highly structured masks induced by inference-time unmasking. In this work, we propose Progressive UnMAsking (PUMA), a simple modification of the forward masking process that aligns training-time and inference-time masking patterns, thereby focusing optimization on inference-aligned masks and speeding up training. Empirically, PUMA speeds up pretraining at the 125M scale by $\approx 2.5\times$ and offers complementary advantages on top of common recipes like autoregressive initialization. We open-source our codebase at https://github.com/JaeyeonKim01/PUMA.

Anytime Pretraining: Horizon-Free Learning-Rate Schedules with Weight Averaging

Large language models are increasingly trained in continual or open-ended settings, where the total training horizon is not known in advance. Despite this, most existing pretraining recipes are not anytime: they rely on horizon-dependent learning rate schedules and extensive tuning under a fixed compute budget. In this work, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating the existence of anytime learning schedules for overparameterized linear regression, and we highlight the central role of weight averaging - also known as model merging - in achieving the minimax convergence rates of stochastic gradient descent. We show that these anytime schedules polynomially decay with time, with the decay rate determined by the source and capacity conditions of the problem. Empirically, we evaluate 150M and 300M parameter language models trained at 1-32x Chinchilla scale, comparing constant learning rates with weight averaging and $1/\sqrt{t}$ schedules with weight averaging against a well-tuned cosine schedule. Across the full training range, the anytime schedules achieve comparable final loss to cosine decay. Taken together, our results suggest that weight averaging combined with simple, horizon-free step sizes offers a practical and effective anytime alternative to cosine learning rate schedules for large language model pretraining.

GQ-VAE: A gated quantized VAE for learning variable length tokens

While most frontier models still use deterministic frequency-based tokenization algorithms such as byte-pair encoding (BPE), there has been significant recent work to design learned neural tokenizers. However, these schemes generally add to underlying language model complexity and force large changes to architecture, making them hard to implement at large scales. To overcome these challenges, we propose the gated quantized variational autoencoder (GQ-VAE), a novel architecture that can be independently pre-trained to serve as a drop-in replacement for existing tokenizers. The key innovation of the architecture is to learn to encode variable-length discrete tokens. GQ-VAE improves compression and language modeling performance over a standard VQ-VAE tokenizer, and approaches the compression rate and language modeling performance of BPE. Interestingly, if we use BPE with a smaller vocabulary, such that the compression is equivalent between GQ-VAE and BPE, we find that GQ-VAE improves downstream language model learning. We conclude with a discussion of several exciting avenues for future work. Code can be found at https://github.com/Theo-Datta-115/gq-vae.

The Potential of Second-Order Optimization for LLMs: A Study with Full Gauss-Newton

Recent efforts to accelerate LLM pretraining have focused on computationally-efficient approximations that exploit second-order structure. This raises a key question for large-scale training: how much performance is forfeited by these approximations? To probe this question, we establish a practical upper bound on iteration complexity by applying full Gauss-Newton (GN) preconditioning to transformer models of up to 150M parameters. Our experiments show that full GN updates yield substantial gains over existing optimizers, achieving a 5.4x reduction in training iterations compared to strong baselines like SOAP and Muon. Furthermore, we find that a precise layerwise GN preconditioner, which ignores cross-layer information, nearly matches the performance of the full GN method. Collectively, our results suggest: (1) the GN approximation is highly effective for preconditioning, implying higher-order loss terms may not be critical for convergence speed; (2) the layerwise Hessian structure contains sufficient information to achieve most of these potential gains; and (3) a significant performance gap exists between current approximate methods and an idealized layerwise oracle.

Selective Underfitting in Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have emerged as the principal paradigm for generative modeling across various domains. During training, they learn the score function, which in turn is used to generate samples at inference. They raise a basic yet unsolved question: which score do they actually learn? In principle, a diffusion model that matches the empirical score in the entire data space would simply reproduce the training data, failing to generate novel samples. Recent work addresses this question by arguing that diffusion models underfit the empirical score due to training-time inductive biases. In this work, we refine this perspective, introducing the notion of selective underfitting: instead of underfitting the score everywhere, better diffusion models more accurately approximate the score in certain regions of input space, while underfitting it in others. We characterize these regions and design empirical interventions to validate our perspective. Our results establish that selective underfitting is essential for understanding diffusion models, yielding new, testable insights into their generalization and generative performance.

Fine-Tuning Masked Diffusion for Provable Self-Correction

A natural desideratum for generative models is self-correction--detecting and revising low-quality tokens at inference. While Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising approach for generative modeling in discrete spaces, their capacity for self-correction remains poorly understood. Prior attempts to incorporate self-correction into MDMs either require overhauling MDM architectures/training or rely on imprecise proxies for token quality, limiting their applicability. Motivated by this, we introduce PRISM--Plug-in Remasking for Inference-time Self-correction of Masked Diffusions--a lightweight, model-agnostic approach that applies to any pretrained MDM. Theoretically, PRISM defines a self-correction loss that provably learns per-token quality scores, without RL or a verifier. These quality scores are computed in the same forward pass with MDM and used to detect low-quality tokens. Empirically, PRISM advances MDM inference across domains and scales: Sudoku; unconditional text (170M); and code with LLaDA (8B).

Characterization and Mitigation of Training Instabilities in Microscaling Formats

Training large language models is an expensive, compute-bound process that must be repeated as models scale, algorithms improve, and new data is collected. To address this, next-generation hardware accelerators increasingly support lower-precision arithmetic formats, such as the Microscaling (MX) formats introduced in NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture. These formats use a shared scale within blocks of parameters to extend representable range and perform forward/backward GEMM operations in reduced precision for efficiency gains. In this work, we investigate the challenges and viability of block-scaled precision formats during model training. Across nearly one thousand language models trained from scratch -- spanning compute budgets from $2 \times 10^{17}$ to $4.8 \times 10^{19}$ FLOPs and sweeping over a broad range of weight-activation precision combinations -- we consistently observe that training in MX formats exhibits sharp, stochastic instabilities in the loss, particularly at larger compute scales. To explain this phenomenon, we conduct controlled experiments and ablations on a smaller proxy model that exhibits similar behavior as the language model, sweeping across architectural settings, hyperparameters, and precision formats. These experiments motivate a simple model in which multiplicative gradient bias introduced by the quantization of layer-norm affine parameters and a small fraction of activations can trigger runaway divergence. Through \emph{in situ} intervention experiments on our proxy model, we demonstrate that instabilities can be averted or delayed by modifying precision schemes mid-training. Guided by these findings, we evaluate stabilization strategies in the LLM setting and show that certain hybrid configurations recover performance competitive with full-precision training. We release our code at https://github.com/Hither1/systems-scaling.

Inside you are many wolves: Using cognitive models to interpret value trade-offs in LLMs

Navigating everyday social situations often requires juggling conflicting goals, such as conveying a harsh truth, maintaining trust, all while still being mindful of another person's feelings. These value trade-offs are an integral part of human decision-making and language use, however, current tools for interpreting such dynamic and multi-faceted notions of values in LLMs are limited. In cognitive science, so-called "cognitive models" provide formal accounts of these trade-offs in humans, by modeling the weighting of a speaker's competing utility functions in choosing an action or utterance. In this work, we use a leading cognitive model of polite speech to interpret the extent to which LLMs represent human-like trade-offs. We apply this lens to systematically evaluate value trade-offs in two encompassing model settings: degrees of reasoning "effort" in frontier black-box models, and RL post-training dynamics of open-source models. Our results highlight patterns of higher informational utility than social utility in reasoning models, and in open-source models shown to be stronger in mathematical reasoning. Our findings from LLMs' training dynamics suggest large shifts in utility values early on in training with persistent effects of the choice of base model and pretraining data, compared to feedback dataset or alignment method. We show that our method is responsive to diverse aspects of the rapidly evolving LLM landscape, with insights for forming hypotheses about other high-level behaviors, shaping training regimes for reasoning models, and better controlling trade-offs between values during model training.