Developing Federated Time-to-Event Scores Using Heterogeneous Real-World Survival Data

Survival analysis serves as a fundamental component in numerous healthcare applications, where the determination of the time to specific events (such as the onset of a certain disease or death) for patients is crucial for clinical decision-making. Scoring systems are widely used for swift and efficient risk prediction. However, existing methods for constructing survival scores presume that data originates from a single source, posing privacy challenges in collaborations with multiple data owners. We propose a novel framework for building federated scoring systems for multi-site survival outcomes, ensuring both privacy and communication efficiency. We applied our approach to sites with heterogeneous survival data originating from emergency departments in Singapore and the United States. Additionally, we independently developed local scores at each site. In testing datasets from each participant site, our proposed federated scoring system consistently outperformed all local models, evidenced by higher integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (iAUC) values, with a maximum improvement of 11.6%. Additionally, the federated score's time-dependent AUC(t) values showed advantages over local scores, exhibiting narrower confidence intervals (CIs) across most time points. The model developed through our proposed method exhibits effective performance on each local site, signifying noteworthy implications for healthcare research. Sites participating in our proposed federated scoring model training gained benefits by acquiring survival models with enhanced prediction accuracy and efficiency. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of our privacy-preserving federated survival score generation framework and its applicability to real-world heterogeneous survival data.

Federated Learning for Clinical Structured Data: A Benchmark Comparison of Engineering and Statistical Approaches

Federated learning (FL) has shown promising potential in safeguarding data privacy in healthcare collaborations. While the term "FL" was originally coined by the engineering community, the statistical field has also explored similar privacy-preserving algorithms. Statistical FL algorithms, however, remain considerably less recognized than their engineering counterparts. Our goal was to bridge the gap by presenting the first comprehensive comparison of FL frameworks from both engineering and statistical domains. We evaluated five FL frameworks using both simulated and real-world data. The results indicate that statistical FL algorithms yield less biased point estimates for model coefficients and offer convenient confidence interval estimations. In contrast, engineering-based methods tend to generate more accurate predictions, sometimes surpassing central pooled and statistical FL models. This study underscores the relative strengths and weaknesses of both types of methods, emphasizing the need for increased awareness and their integration in future FL applications.

Towards Adversarial Patch Analysis and Certified Defense against Crowd Counting

Crowd counting has drawn much attention due to its importance in safety-critical surveillance systems. Especially, deep neural network (DNN) methods have significantly reduced estimation errors for crowd counting missions. Recent studies have demonstrated that DNNs are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, i.e., normal images with human-imperceptible perturbations could mislead DNNs to make false predictions. In this work, we propose a robust attack strategy called Adversarial Patch Attack with Momentum (APAM) to systematically evaluate the robustness of crowd counting models, where the attacker's goal is to create an adversarial perturbation that severely degrades their performances, thus leading to public safety accidents (e.g., stampede accidents). Especially, the proposed attack leverages the extreme-density background information of input images to generate robust adversarial patches via a series of transformations (e.g., interpolation, rotation, etc.). We observe that by perturbing less than 6\% of image pixels, our attacks severely degrade the performance of crowd counting systems, both digitally and physically. To better enhance the adversarial robustness of crowd counting models, we propose the first regression model-based Randomized Ablation (RA), which is more sufficient than Adversarial Training (ADT) (Mean Absolute Error of RA is 5 lower than ADT on clean samples and 30 lower than ADT on adversarial examples). Extensive experiments on five crowd counting models demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of the proposed method. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/harrywuhust2022/Adv-Crowd-analysis}.