A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models

Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have emerged claiming breakthroughs in skill. However, these have mostly been benchmarked using deterministic skill scores, and little is known about their probabilistic skill. Unfortunately, it is hard to fairly compare AI weather models in a probabilistic sense, since variations in choice of ensemble initialization, definition of state, and noise injection methodology become confounding. Moreover, even obtaining ensemble forecast baselines is a substantial engineering challenge given the data volumes involved. We sidestep both problems by applying a decades-old idea -- lagged ensembles -- whereby an ensemble can be constructed from a moderately-sized library of deterministic forecasts. This allows the first parameter-free intercomparison of leading AI weather models' probabilistic skill against an operational baseline. The results reveal that two leading AI weather models, i.e. GraphCast and Pangu, are tied on the probabilistic CRPS metric even though the former outperforms the latter in deterministic scoring. We also reveal how multiple time-step loss functions, which many data-driven weather models have employed, are counter-productive: they improve deterministic metrics at the cost of increased dissipation, deteriorating probabilistic skill. This is confirmed through ablations applied to a spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) approach to AI weather forecasting. Separate SFNO ablations modulating effective resolution reveal it has a useful effect on ensemble dispersion relevant to achieving good ensemble calibration. We hope these and forthcoming insights from lagged ensembles can help guide the development of AI weather forecasts and have thus shared the diagnostic code.

Towards Stability of Autoregressive Neural Operators

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to prototypical neural networks leads to significantly lower errors in long-range forecasts with 800\% longer forecasts without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our \href{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/stabilizing_neural_operators-5774/}{code} for reproducibility.

Towards Foundation Models for Scientific Machine Learning: Characterizing Scaling and Transfer Behavior

Pre-trained machine learning (ML) models have shown great performance for a wide range of applications, in particular in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). Here, we study how pre-training could be used for scientific machine learning (SciML) applications, specifically in the context of transfer learning. We study the transfer behavior of these models as (i) the pre-trained model size is scaled, (ii) the downstream training dataset size is scaled, (iii) the physics parameters are systematically pushed out of distribution, and (iv) how a single model pre-trained on a mixture of different physics problems can be adapted to various downstream applications. We find that-when fine-tuned appropriately-transfer learning can help reach desired accuracy levels with orders of magnitude fewer downstream examples (across different tasks that can even be out-of-distribution) than training from scratch, with consistent behavior across a wide range of downstream examples. We also find that fine-tuning these models yields more performance gains as model size increases, compared to training from scratch on new downstream tasks. These results hold for a broad range of PDE learning tasks. All in all, our results demonstrate the potential of the "pre-train and fine-tune" paradigm for SciML problems, demonstrating a path towards building SciML foundation models. We open-source our code for reproducibility.

Generative Modeling of High-resolution Global Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme precipitation events is of critical importance to preparing for and adapting to climate change. Making accurate high-resolution precipitation forecasts using traditional physical models remains a major challenge in operational weather forecasting as they incur substantial computational costs and struggle to achieve sufficient forecast skill. Recently, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in closing the gap with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in terms of precipitation forecast skill, opening up exciting new avenues for precipitation modeling. However, it is challenging for these deep learning models to fully resolve the fine-scale structures of precipitation phenomena and adequately characterize the extremes of the long-tailed precipitation distribution. In this work, we present several improvements to the architecture and training process of a current state-of-the art deep learning precipitation model (FourCastNet) using a novel generative adversarial network (GAN) to better capture fine scales and extremes. Our improvements achieve superior performance in capturing the extreme percentiles of global precipitation, while comparable to state-of-the-art NWP models in terms of forecast skill at 1--2 day lead times. Together, these improvements set a new state-of-the-art in global precipitation forecasting.

FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators

Extreme weather amplified by climate change is causing increasingly devastating impacts across the globe. The current use of physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) limits accuracy due to high computational cost and strict time-to-solution limits. We report that a data-driven deep learning Earth system emulator, FourCastNet, can predict global weather and generate medium-range forecasts five orders-of-magnitude faster than NWP while approaching state-of-the-art accuracy. FourCast-Net is optimized and scales efficiently on three supercomputing systems: Selene, Perlmutter, and JUWELS Booster up to 3,808 NVIDIA A100 GPUs, attaining 140.8 petaFLOPS in mixed precision (11.9%of peak at that scale). The time-to-solution for training FourCastNet measured on JUWELS Booster on 3,072GPUs is 67.4minutes, resulting in an 80,000times faster time-to-solution relative to state-of-the-art NWP, in inference. FourCastNet produces accurate instantaneous weather predictions for a week in advance, enables enormous ensembles that better capture weather extremes, and supports higher global forecast resolutions.

FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators

FourCastNet, short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, is a global data-driven weather forecasting model that provides accurate short to medium-range global predictions at $0.25^{\circ}$ resolution. FourCastNet accurately forecasts high-resolution, fast-timescale variables such as the surface wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric water vapor. It has important implications for planning wind energy resources, predicting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones, and atmospheric rivers. FourCastNet matches the forecasting accuracy of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, at short lead times for large-scale variables, while outperforming IFS for variables with complex fine-scale structure, including precipitation. FourCastNet generates a week-long forecast in less than 2 seconds, orders of magnitude faster than IFS. The speed of FourCastNet enables the creation of rapid and inexpensive large-ensemble forecasts with thousands of ensemble-members for improving probabilistic forecasting. We discuss how data-driven deep learning models such as FourCastNet are a valuable addition to the meteorology toolkit to aid and augment NWP models.

Self-supervised similarity search for large scientific datasets

We present the use of self-supervised learning to explore and exploit large unlabeled datasets. Focusing on 42 million galaxy images from the latest data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys, we first train a self-supervised model to distil low-dimensional representations that are robust to symmetries, uncertainties, and noise in each image. We then use the representations to construct and publicly release an interactive semantic similarity search tool. We demonstrate how our tool can be used to rapidly discover rare objects given only a single example, increase the speed of crowd-sourcing campaigns, and construct and improve training sets for supervised applications. While we focus on images from sky surveys, the technique is straightforward to apply to any scientific dataset of any dimensionality. The similarity search web app can be found at https://github.com/georgestein/galaxy_search

Mining for strong gravitational lenses with self-supervised learning

We employ self-supervised representation learning to distill information from 76 million galaxy images from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys' Data Release 9. Targeting the identification of new strong gravitational lens candidates, we first create a rapid similarity search tool to discover new strong lenses given only a single labelled example. We then show how training a simple linear classifier on the self-supervised representations, requiring only a few minutes on a CPU, can automatically classify strong lenses with great efficiency. We present 1192 new strong lens candidates that we identified through a brief visual identification campaign, and release an interactive web-based similarity search tool and the top network predictions to facilitate crowd-sourcing rapid discovery of additional strong gravitational lenses and other rare objects: github.com/georgestein/ssl-legacysurvey

Fast, high-fidelity Lyman $α$ forests with convolutional neural networks

Full-physics cosmological simulations are powerful tools for studying the formation and evolution of structure in the universe but require extreme computational resources. Here, we train a convolutional neural network to use a cheaper N-body-only simulation to reconstruct the baryon hydrodynamic variables (density, temperature, and velocity) on scales relevant to the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly$\alpha$) forest, using data from Nyx simulations. We show that our method enables rapid estimation of these fields at a resolution of $\sim$20kpc, and captures the statistics of the Ly$\alpha$ forest with much greater accuracy than existing approximations. Because our model is fully-convolutional, we can train on smaller simulation boxes and deploy on much larger ones, enabling substantial computational savings. Furthermore, as our method produces an approximation for the hydrodynamic fields instead of Ly$\alpha$ flux directly, it is not limited to a particular choice of ionizing background or mean transmitted flux.

Estimating Galactic Distances From Images Using Self-supervised Representation Learning

We use a contrastive self-supervised learning framework to estimate distances to galaxies from their photometric images. We incorporate data augmentations from computer vision as well as an application-specific augmentation accounting for galactic dust. We find that the resulting visual representations of galaxy images are semantically useful and allow for fast similarity searches, and can be successfully fine-tuned for the task of redshift estimation. We show that (1) pretraining on a large corpus of unlabeled data followed by fine-tuning on some labels can attain the accuracy of a fully-supervised model which requires 2-4x more labeled data, and (2) that by fine-tuning our self-supervised representations using all available data labels in the Main Galaxy Sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we outperform the state-of-the-art supervised learning method.