Hindsight Preference Optimization for Financial Time Series Advisory

Time series models predict numbers; decision-makers need advisory -- directional signals with reasoning, actionable suggestions, and risk management. Training language models for such predictive advisory faces a fundamental challenge: quality depends on outcomes unknown at prediction time. We bridge two ideas from reinforcement learning -- using information unavailable during execution to retrospectively generate training signal, and preference alignment -- and propose Hindsight Preference Optimization: observed outcomes let an LLM judge rank candidate advisories on dimensions that scalar metrics cannot capture, producing preference pairs for DPO without human annotation. We apply this to Vision-Language-Model-based predictive advisories on S&P 500 equity time series, demonstrated by a 4B model outperforming its 235B teacher on both accuracy and advisory quality.

Prompt Optimization Is a Coin Flip: Diagnosing When It Helps in Compound AI Systems

Prompt optimization in compound AI systems is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip: across 72 optimization runs on Claude Haiku (6 methods $\times$ 4 tasks $\times$ 3 repeats), 49% score below zero-shot; on Amazon Nova Lite, the failure rate is even higher. Yet on one task, all six methods improve over zero-shot by up to $+6.8$ points. What distinguishes success from failure? We investigate with 18,000 grid evaluations and 144 optimization runs, testing two assumptions behind end-to-end optimization tools like TextGrad and DSPy: (A) individual prompts are worth optimizing, and (B) agent prompts interact, requiring joint optimization. Interaction effects are never significant ($p > 0.52$, all $F < 1.0$), and optimization helps only when the task has exploitable output structure -- a format the model can produce but does not default to. We provide a two-stage diagnostic: an \$80 ANOVA pre-test for agent coupling, and a 10-minute headroom test that predicts whether optimization is worthwhile -- turning a coin flip into an informed decision.

Do Agent Rules Shape or Distort? Guardrails Beat Guidance in Coding Agents

Developers increasingly guide AI coding agents through natural language instruction files (e.g., CLAUDE.md, .cursorrules), yet no controlled study has measured whether these rules actually improve agent performance or which properties make a rule beneficial. We scrape 679 such files (25,532 rules) from GitHub and conduct the first large-scale empirical evaluation, running over 5,000 agent runs with a state-of-the-art coding agent on SWE-bench Verified. Rules improve performance by 7--14 percentage points, but random rules help as much as expert-curated ones -- suggesting rules work through context priming rather than specific instruction. Negative constraints ("do not refactor unrelated code") are the only individually beneficial rule type, while positive directives ("follow code style") actively hurt -- a pattern we analyze through the lens of potential-based reward shaping (PBRS). Moreover, individual rules are mostly harmful in isolation yet collectively helpful, with no degradation up to 50 rules. These findings expose a hidden reliability risk -- well-intentioned rules routinely degrade agent performance -- and provide a clear principle for safe agent configuration: constrain what agents must not do, rather than prescribing what they should.

Verified Multi-Agent Orchestration: A Plan-Execute-Verify-Replan Framework for Complex Query Resolution

We present Verified Multi-Agent Orchestration (VMAO), a framework that coordinates specialized LLM-based agents through a verification-driven iterative loop. Given a complex query, our system decomposes it into a directed acyclic graph (DAG) of sub-questions, executes them through domain-specific agents in parallel, verifies result completeness via LLM-based evaluation, and adaptively replans to address gaps. The key contributions are: (1) dependency-aware parallel execution over a DAG of sub-questions with automatic context propagation, (2) verification-driven adaptive replanning that uses an LLM-based verifier as an orchestration-level coordination signal, and (3) configurable stop conditions that balance answer quality against resource usage. On 25 expert-curated market research queries, VMAO improves answer completeness from 3.1 to 4.2 and source quality from 2.6 to 4.1 (1-5 scale) compared to a single-agent baseline, demonstrating that orchestration-level verification is an effective mechanism for multi-agent quality assurance.

OpenVIS: Open-vocabulary Video Instance Segmentation

We propose and study a new computer vision task named open-vocabulary video instance segmentation (OpenVIS), which aims to simultaneously segment, detect, and track arbitrary objects in a video according to corresponding text descriptions. Compared to the original video instance segmentation, OpenVIS enables users to identify objects of desired categories, regardless of whether those categories were included in the training dataset. To achieve this goal, we propose a two-stage pipeline for proposing high-quality class-agnostic object masks and predicting their corresponding categories via pre-trained VLM. Specifically, we first employ a query-based mask proposal network to generate masks of all potential objects, where we replace the original class head with an instance head trained with a binary object loss, thereby enhancing the class-agnostic mask proposal ability. Then, we introduce a proposal post-processing approach to adapt the proposals better to the pre-trained VLMs, avoiding distortion and unnatural proposal inputs. Meanwhile, to facilitate research on this new task, we also propose an evaluation benchmark that utilizes off-the-shelf datasets to comprehensively assess its performance. Experimentally, the proposed OpenVIS exhibits a remarkable 148\% improvement compared to the full-supervised baselines on BURST, which have been trained on all categories.

SelfGait: A Spatiotemporal Representation Learning Method for Self-supervised Gait Recognition

Gait recognition plays a vital role in human identification since gait is a unique biometric feature that can be perceived at a distance. Although existing gait recognition methods can learn gait features from gait sequences in different ways, the performance of gait recognition suffers from insufficient labeled data, especially in some practical scenarios associated with short gait sequences or various clothing styles. It is unpractical to label the numerous gait data. In this work, we propose a self-supervised gait recognition method, termed SelfGait, which takes advantage of the massive, diverse, unlabeled gait data as a pre-training process to improve the representation abilities of spatiotemporal backbones. Specifically, we employ the horizontal pyramid mapping (HPM) and micro-motion template builder (MTB) as our spatiotemporal backbones to capture the multi-scale spatiotemporal representations. Experiments on CASIA-B and OU-MVLP benchmark gait datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SelfGait compared with four state-of-the-art gait recognition methods. The source code has been released at https://github.com/EchoItLiu/SelfGait.

Privacy-preserving Object Detection

Privacy considerations and bias in datasets are quickly becoming high-priority issues that the computer vision community needs to face. So far, little attention has been given to practical solutions that do not involve collection of new datasets. In this work, we show that for object detection on COCO, both anonymizing the dataset by blurring faces, as well as swapping faces in a balanced manner along the gender and skin tone dimension, can retain object detection performances while preserving privacy and partially balancing bias.