Hindsight Preference Optimization for Financial Time Series Advisory

Time series models predict numbers; decision-makers need advisory -- directional signals with reasoning, actionable suggestions, and risk management. Training language models for such predictive advisory faces a fundamental challenge: quality depends on outcomes unknown at prediction time. We bridge two ideas from reinforcement learning -- using information unavailable during execution to retrospectively generate training signal, and preference alignment -- and propose Hindsight Preference Optimization: observed outcomes let an LLM judge rank candidate advisories on dimensions that scalar metrics cannot capture, producing preference pairs for DPO without human annotation. We apply this to Vision-Language-Model-based predictive advisories on S&P 500 equity time series, demonstrated by a 4B model outperforming its 235B teacher on both accuracy and advisory quality.

Prompt Optimization Is a Coin Flip: Diagnosing When It Helps in Compound AI Systems

Prompt optimization in compound AI systems is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip: across 72 optimization runs on Claude Haiku (6 methods $\times$ 4 tasks $\times$ 3 repeats), 49% score below zero-shot; on Amazon Nova Lite, the failure rate is even higher. Yet on one task, all six methods improve over zero-shot by up to $+6.8$ points. What distinguishes success from failure? We investigate with 18,000 grid evaluations and 144 optimization runs, testing two assumptions behind end-to-end optimization tools like TextGrad and DSPy: (A) individual prompts are worth optimizing, and (B) agent prompts interact, requiring joint optimization. Interaction effects are never significant ($p > 0.52$, all $F < 1.0$), and optimization helps only when the task has exploitable output structure -- a format the model can produce but does not default to. We provide a two-stage diagnostic: an \$80 ANOVA pre-test for agent coupling, and a 10-minute headroom test that predicts whether optimization is worthwhile -- turning a coin flip into an informed decision.

Do Agent Rules Shape or Distort? Guardrails Beat Guidance in Coding Agents

Developers increasingly guide AI coding agents through natural language instruction files (e.g., CLAUDE.md, .cursorrules), yet no controlled study has measured whether these rules actually improve agent performance or which properties make a rule beneficial. We scrape 679 such files (25,532 rules) from GitHub and conduct the first large-scale empirical evaluation, running over 5,000 agent runs with a state-of-the-art coding agent on SWE-bench Verified. Rules improve performance by 7--14 percentage points, but random rules help as much as expert-curated ones -- suggesting rules work through context priming rather than specific instruction. Negative constraints ("do not refactor unrelated code") are the only individually beneficial rule type, while positive directives ("follow code style") actively hurt -- a pattern we analyze through the lens of potential-based reward shaping (PBRS). Moreover, individual rules are mostly harmful in isolation yet collectively helpful, with no degradation up to 50 rules. These findings expose a hidden reliability risk -- well-intentioned rules routinely degrade agent performance -- and provide a clear principle for safe agent configuration: constrain what agents must not do, rather than prescribing what they should.

Verified Multi-Agent Orchestration: A Plan-Execute-Verify-Replan Framework for Complex Query Resolution

We present Verified Multi-Agent Orchestration (VMAO), a framework that coordinates specialized LLM-based agents through a verification-driven iterative loop. Given a complex query, our system decomposes it into a directed acyclic graph (DAG) of sub-questions, executes them through domain-specific agents in parallel, verifies result completeness via LLM-based evaluation, and adaptively replans to address gaps. The key contributions are: (1) dependency-aware parallel execution over a DAG of sub-questions with automatic context propagation, (2) verification-driven adaptive replanning that uses an LLM-based verifier as an orchestration-level coordination signal, and (3) configurable stop conditions that balance answer quality against resource usage. On 25 expert-curated market research queries, VMAO improves answer completeness from 3.1 to 4.2 and source quality from 2.6 to 4.1 (1-5 scale) compared to a single-agent baseline, demonstrating that orchestration-level verification is an effective mechanism for multi-agent quality assurance.

Understand customer reviews with less data and in short time: pretrained language representation and active learning

In this paper, we address customer review understanding problems by using supervised machine learning approaches, in order to achieve a fully automatic review aspects categorisation and sentiment analysis. In general, such supervised learning algorithms require domain-specific expert knowledge for generating high quality labeled training data, and the cost of labeling can be very high. To achieve an in-production customer review machine learning enabled analysis tool with only a limited amount of data and within a reasonable training data collection time, we propose to use pre-trained language representation to boost model performance and active learning framework for accelerating the iterative training process. The results show that with integration of both components, the fully automatic review analysis can be achieved at a much faster pace.

Modelling customer online behaviours with neural networks: applications to conversion prediction and advertising retargeting

In this paper, we apply neural networks into digital marketing world for the purpose of better targeting the potential customers. To do so, we model the customer online behaviours using dedicated neural network architectures. Starting from user searched keywords in a search engine to the landing page and different following pages, until the user left the site, we model the whole visited journey with a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), together with Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) that can take into account of the semantic meaning of user searched keywords and different visited page names. With such model, we use Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the conversion rates of each potential customer in the future visiting. We believe our concept and the preliminary promising results in this paper enable the use of largely available customer online behaviours data for advanced digital marketing analysis.

Combining multiple resolutions into hierarchical representations for kernel-based image classification

Geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) framework has gained increasing interest recently. Following this popular paradigm, we propose a novel multiscale classification approach operating on a hierarchical image representation built from two images at different resolutions. They capture the same scene with different sensors and are naturally fused together through the hierarchical representation, where coarser levels are built from a Low Spatial Resolution (LSR) or Medium Spatial Resolution (MSR) image while finer levels are generated from a High Spatial Resolution (HSR) or Very High Spatial Resolution (VHSR) image. Such a representation allows one to benefit from the context information thanks to the coarser levels, and subregions spatial arrangement information thanks to the finer levels. Two dedicated structured kernels are then used to perform machine learning directly on the constructed hierarchical representation. This strategy overcomes the limits of conventional GEOBIA classification procedures that can handle only one or very few pre-selected scales. Experiments run on an urban classification task show that the proposed approach can highly improve the classification accuracy w.r.t. conventional approaches working on a single scale.

Combining multiscale features for classification of hyperspectral images: a sequence based kernel approach

Nowadays, hyperspectral image classification widely copes with spatial information to improve accuracy. One of the most popular way to integrate such information is to extract hierarchical features from a multiscale segmentation. In the classification context, the extracted features are commonly concatenated into a long vector (also called stacked vector), on which is applied a conventional vector-based machine learning technique (e.g. SVM with Gaussian kernel). In this paper, we rather propose to use a sequence structured kernel: the spectrum kernel. We show that the conventional stacked vector-based kernel is actually a special case of this kernel. Experiments conducted on various publicly available hyperspectral datasets illustrate the improvement of the proposed kernel w.r.t. conventional ones using the same hierarchical spatial features.

A Subpath Kernel for Learning Hierarchical Image Representations

Tree kernels have demonstrated their ability to deal with hierarchical data, as the intrinsic tree structure often plays a discriminative role. While such kernels have been successfully applied to various domains such as nature language processing and bioinformatics, they mostly concentrate on ordered trees and whose nodes are described by symbolic data. Meanwhile, hierarchical representations have gained increasing interest to describe image content. This is particularly true in remote sensing, where such representations allow for revealing different objects of interest at various scales through a tree structure. However, the induced trees are unordered and the nodes are equipped with numerical features. In this paper, we propose a new structured kernel for hierarchical image representations which is built on the concept of subpath kernel. Experimental results on both artificial and remote sensing datasets show that the proposed kernel manages to deal with the hierarchical nature of the data, leading to better classification rates.