Prompt Optimization Is a Coin Flip: Diagnosing When It Helps in Compound AI Systems

Prompt optimization in compound AI systems is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip: across 72 optimization runs on Claude Haiku (6 methods $\times$ 4 tasks $\times$ 3 repeats), 49% score below zero-shot; on Amazon Nova Lite, the failure rate is even higher. Yet on one task, all six methods improve over zero-shot by up to $+6.8$ points. What distinguishes success from failure? We investigate with 18,000 grid evaluations and 144 optimization runs, testing two assumptions behind end-to-end optimization tools like TextGrad and DSPy: (A) individual prompts are worth optimizing, and (B) agent prompts interact, requiring joint optimization. Interaction effects are never significant ($p > 0.52$, all $F < 1.0$), and optimization helps only when the task has exploitable output structure -- a format the model can produce but does not default to. We provide a two-stage diagnostic: an \$80 ANOVA pre-test for agent coupling, and a 10-minute headroom test that predicts whether optimization is worthwhile -- turning a coin flip into an informed decision.

Do Agent Rules Shape or Distort? Guardrails Beat Guidance in Coding Agents

Developers increasingly guide AI coding agents through natural language instruction files (e.g., CLAUDE.md, .cursorrules), yet no controlled study has measured whether these rules actually improve agent performance or which properties make a rule beneficial. We scrape 679 such files (25,532 rules) from GitHub and conduct the first large-scale empirical evaluation, running over 5,000 agent runs with a state-of-the-art coding agent on SWE-bench Verified. Rules improve performance by 7--14 percentage points, but random rules help as much as expert-curated ones -- suggesting rules work through context priming rather than specific instruction. Negative constraints ("do not refactor unrelated code") are the only individually beneficial rule type, while positive directives ("follow code style") actively hurt -- a pattern we analyze through the lens of potential-based reward shaping (PBRS). Moreover, individual rules are mostly harmful in isolation yet collectively helpful, with no degradation up to 50 rules. These findings expose a hidden reliability risk -- well-intentioned rules routinely degrade agent performance -- and provide a clear principle for safe agent configuration: constrain what agents must not do, rather than prescribing what they should.

From Debate to Decision: Conformal Social Choice for Safe Multi-Agent Deliberation

Multi-agent debate improves LLM reasoning, yet agreement among agents is not evidence of correctness. When agents converge on a wrong answer through social reinforcement, consensus-based stopping commits that error to an automated action with no recourse. We introduce Conformal Social Choice, a post-hoc decision layer that converts debate outputs into calibrated act-versus-escalate decisions. Verbalized probability distributions from heterogeneous agents are aggregated via a linear opinion pool and calibrated with split conformal prediction, yielding prediction sets with a marginal coverage guarantee: the correct answer is included with probability ${\geq}\,1{-}α$, without assumptions on individual model calibration. A hierarchical action policy maps singleton sets to autonomous action and larger sets to human escalation. On eight MMLU-Pro domains with three agents (Claude Haiku, DeepSeek-R1, Qwen-3 32B), coverage stays within 1--2 points of the target. The key finding is not that debate becomes more accurate, but that the conformal layer makes its failures actionable: 81.9% of wrong-consensus cases are intercepted at $α{=}0.05$. Because the layer refuses to act on cases where debate is confidently wrong, the remaining conformal singletons reach 90.0--96.8% accuracy (up to 22.1pp above consensus stopping) -- a selection effect, not a reasoning improvement. This safety comes at the cost of automation, but the operating point is user-adjustable via $α$.

Tackling Over-smoothing on Hypergraphs: A Ricci Flow-guided Neural Diffusion Approach

Hypergraph neural networks (HGNNs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling complex higher-order relationships. However, existing HGNNs often suffer from over-smoothing as the number of layers increases and lack effective control over message passing among nodes. Inspired by the theory of Ricci flow in differential geometry, we theoretically establish that introducing discrete Ricci flow into hypergraph structures can effectively regulate node feature evolution and thereby alleviate over-smoothing. Building on this insight, we propose Ricci Flow-guided Hypergraph Neural Diffusion(RFHND), a novel message passing paradigm for hypergraphs guided by discrete Ricci flow. Specifically, RFHND is based on a PDE system that describes the continuous evolution of node features on hypergraphs and adaptively regulates the rate of information diffusion at the geometric level, preventing feature homogenization and producing high-quality node representations. Experimental results show that RFHND significantly outperforms existing methods across multiple benchmark datasets and demonstrates strong robustness, while also effectively mitigating over-smoothing.

Verified Multi-Agent Orchestration: A Plan-Execute-Verify-Replan Framework for Complex Query Resolution

We present Verified Multi-Agent Orchestration (VMAO), a framework that coordinates specialized LLM-based agents through a verification-driven iterative loop. Given a complex query, our system decomposes it into a directed acyclic graph (DAG) of sub-questions, executes them through domain-specific agents in parallel, verifies result completeness via LLM-based evaluation, and adaptively replans to address gaps. The key contributions are: (1) dependency-aware parallel execution over a DAG of sub-questions with automatic context propagation, (2) verification-driven adaptive replanning that uses an LLM-based verifier as an orchestration-level coordination signal, and (3) configurable stop conditions that balance answer quality against resource usage. On 25 expert-curated market research queries, VMAO improves answer completeness from 3.1 to 4.2 and source quality from 2.6 to 4.1 (1-5 scale) compared to a single-agent baseline, demonstrating that orchestration-level verification is an effective mechanism for multi-agent quality assurance.

How Does the ReLU Activation Affect the Implicit Bias of Gradient Descent on High-dimensional Neural Network Regression?

Overparameterized ML models, including neural networks, typically induce underdetermined training objectives with multiple global minima. The implicit bias refers to the limiting global minimum that is attained by a common optimization algorithm, such as gradient descent (GD). In this paper, we characterize the implicit bias of GD for training a shallow ReLU model with the squared loss on high-dimensional random features. Prior work showed that the implicit bias does not exist in the worst-case (Vardi and Shamir, 2021), or corresponds exactly to the minimum-l2-norm solution among all global minima under exactly orthogonal data (Boursier et al., 2022). Our work interpolates between these two extremes and shows that, for sufficiently high-dimensional random data, the implicit bias approximates the minimum-l2-norm solution with high probability with a gap on the order $Θ(\sqrt{n/d})$, where n is the number of training examples and d is the feature dimension. Our results are obtained through a novel primal-dual analysis, which carefully tracks the evolution of predictions, data-span coefficients, as well as their interactions, and shows that the ReLU activation pattern quickly stabilizes with high probability over the random data.

Diffusion-Based sRGB Real Noise Generation via Prompt-Driven Noise Representation Learning

Denoising in the sRGB image space is challenging due to noise variability. Although end-to-end methods perform well, their effectiveness in real-world scenarios is limited by the scarcity of real noisy-clean image pairs, which are expensive and difficult to collect. To address this limitation, several generative methods have been developed to synthesize realistic noisy images from limited data. These generative approaches often rely on camera metadata during both training and testing to synthesize real-world noise. However, the lack of metadata or inconsistencies between devices restricts their usability. Therefore, we propose a novel framework called Prompt-Driven Noise Generation (PNG). This model is capable of acquiring high-dimensional prompt features that capture the characteristics of real-world input noise and creating a variety of realistic noisy images consistent with the distribution of the input noise. By eliminating the dependency on explicit camera metadata, our approach significantly enhances the generalizability and applicability of noise synthesis. Comprehensive experiments reveal that our model effectively produces realistic noisy images and show the successful application of these generated images in removing real-world noise across various benchmark datasets.

Privacy-Concealing Cooperative Perception for BEV Scene Segmentation

Cooperative perception systems for autonomous driving aim to overcome the limited perception range of a single vehicle by communicating with adjacent agents to share sensing information. While this improves perception performance, these systems also face a significant privacy-leakage issue, as sensitive visual content can potentially be reconstructed from the shared data. In this paper, we propose a novel Privacy-Concealing Cooperation (PCC) framework for Bird's Eye View (BEV) semantic segmentation. Based on commonly shared BEV features, we design a hiding network to prevent an image reconstruction network from recovering the input images from the shared features. An adversarial learning mechanism is employed to train the network, where the hiding network works to conceal the visual clues in the BEV features while the reconstruction network attempts to uncover these clues. To maintain segmentation performance, the perception network is integrated with the hiding network and optimized end-to-end. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed PCC framework effectively degrades the quality of the reconstructed images with minimal impact on segmentation performance, providing privacy protection for cooperating vehicles. The source code will be made publicly available upon publication.

Faster Rates For Federated Variational Inequalities

In this paper, we study federated optimization for solving stochastic variational inequalities (VIs), a problem that has attracted growing attention in recent years. Despite substantial progress, a significant gap remains between existing convergence rates and the state-of-the-art bounds known for federated convex optimization. In this work, we address this limitation by establishing a series of improved convergence rates. First, we show that, for general smooth and monotone variational inequalities, the classical Local Extra SGD algorithm admits tighter guarantees under a refined analysis. Next, we identify an inherent limitation of Local Extra SGD, which can lead to excessive client drift. Motivated by this observation, we propose a new algorithm, the Local Inexact Proximal Point Algorithm with Extra Step (LIPPAX), and show that it mitigates client drift and achieves improved guarantees in several regimes, including bounded Hessian, bounded operator, and low-variance settings. Finally, we extend our results to federated composite variational inequalities and establish improved convergence guarantees.

T-CACE: A Time-Conditioned Autoregressive Contrast Enhancement Multi-Task Framework for Contrast-Free Liver MRI Synthesis, Segmentation, and Diagnosis

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a leading modality for the diagnosis of liver cancer, significantly improving the classification of the lesion and patient outcomes. However, traditional MRI faces challenges including risks from contrast agent (CA) administration, time-consuming manual assessment, and limited annotated datasets. To address these limitations, we propose a Time-Conditioned Autoregressive Contrast Enhancement (T-CACE) framework for synthesizing multi-phase contrast-enhanced MRI (CEMRI) directly from non-contrast MRI (NCMRI). T-CACE introduces three core innovations: a conditional token encoding (CTE) mechanism that unifies anatomical priors and temporal phase information into latent representations; and a dynamic time-aware attention mask (DTAM) that adaptively modulates inter-phase information flow using a Gaussian-decayed attention mechanism, ensuring smooth and physiologically plausible transitions across phases. Furthermore, a constraint for temporal classification consistency (TCC) aligns the lesion classification output with the evolution of the physiological signal, further enhancing diagnostic reliability. Extensive experiments on two independent liver MRI datasets demonstrate that T-CACE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in image synthesis, segmentation, and lesion classification. This framework offers a clinically relevant and efficient alternative to traditional contrast-enhanced imaging, improving safety, diagnostic efficiency, and reliability for the assessment of liver lesion. The implementation of T-CACE is publicly available at: https://github.com/xiaojiao929/T-CACE.