Minimax Instrumental Variable Regression and $L_2$ Convergence Guarantees without Identification or Closedness

In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions. Recently, many flexible machine learning methods have been developed for instrumental variable estimation. However, these methods have at least one of the following limitations: (1) restricting the IV regression to be uniquely identified; (2) only obtaining estimation error rates in terms of pseudometrics (\emph{e.g.,} projected norm) rather than valid metrics (\emph{e.g.,} $L_2$ norm); or (3) imposing the so-called closedness condition that requires a certain conditional expectation operator to be sufficiently smooth. In this paper, we present the first method and analysis that can avoid all three limitations, while still permitting general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a new penalized minimax estimator that can converge to a fixed IV solution even when there are multiple solutions, and we derive a strong $L_2$ error rate for our estimator under lax conditions. Notably, this guarantee only needs a widely-used source condition and realizability assumptions, but not the so-called closedness condition. We argue that the source condition and the closedness condition are inherently conflicting, so relaxing the latter significantly improves upon the existing literature that requires both conditions. Our estimator can achieve this improvement because it builds on a novel formulation of the IV estimation problem as a constrained optimization problem.

Near-Minimax-Optimal Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with CVaR

In this paper, we study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the objective of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance $\tau$. Starting with multi-arm bandits (MABs), we show the minimax CVaR regret rate is $\Omega(\sqrt{\tau^{-1}AK})$, where $A$ is the number of actions and $K$ is the number of episodes, and that it is achieved by an Upper Confidence Bound algorithm with a novel Bernstein bonus. For online RL in tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), we show a minimax regret lower bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{\tau^{-1}SAK})$ (with normalized cumulative rewards), where $S$ is the number of states, and we propose a novel bonus-driven Value Iteration procedure. We show that our algorithm achieves the optimal regret of $\widetilde O(\sqrt{\tau^{-1}SAK})$ under a continuity assumption and in general attains a near-optimal regret of $\widetilde O(\tau^{-1}\sqrt{SAK})$, which is minimax-optimal for constant $\tau$. This improves on the best available bounds. By discretizing rewards appropriately, our algorithms are computationally efficient.

Refined Value-Based Offline RL under Realizability and Partial Coverage

In offline reinforcement learning (RL) we have no opportunity to explore so we must make assumptions that the data is sufficient to guide picking a good policy, taking the form of assuming some coverage, realizability, Bellman completeness, and/or hard margin (gap). In this work we propose value-based algorithms for offline RL with PAC guarantees under just partial coverage, specifically, coverage of just a single comparator policy, and realizability of soft (entropy-regularized) Q-function of the single policy and a related function defined as a saddle point of certain minimax optimization problem. This offers refined and generally more lax conditions for offline RL. We further show an analogous result for vanilla Q-functions under a soft margin condition. To attain these guarantees, we leverage novel minimax learning algorithms to accurately estimate soft or vanilla Q-functions with $L^2$-convergence guarantees. Our algorithms' loss functions arise from casting the estimation problems as nonlinear convex optimization problems and Lagrangifying.

Smooth Non-Stationary Bandits

In many applications of online decision making, the environment is non-stationary and it is therefore crucial to use bandit algorithms that handle changes. Most existing approaches are designed to protect against non-smooth changes, constrained only by total variation or Lipschitzness over time, where they guarantee $T^{2/3}$ regret. However, in practice environments are often changing {\it smoothly}, so such algorithms may incur higher-than-necessary regret in these settings and do not leverage information on the {\it rate of change}. In this paper, we study a non-stationary two-arm bandit problem where we assume an arm's mean reward is a $\beta$-H\"older function over (normalized) time, meaning it is $(\beta-1)$-times Lipschitz-continuously differentiable. We show the first {\it separation} between the smooth and non-smooth regimes by presenting a policy with $T^{3/5}$ regret for $\beta=2$. We complement this result by a $T^{\frac{\beta+1}{2\beta+1}}$ lower bound for any integer $\beta\ge 1$, which matches our upper bound for $\beta=2$.

Near-Optimal Non-Parametric Sequential Tests and Confidence Sequences with Possibly Dependent Observations

Sequential testing, always-valid $p$-values, and confidence sequences promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, unlike fixed-$n$ inference based on asymptotic normality, existing sequential tests either make parametric assumptions and end up under-covering/over-rejecting when these fail or use non-parametric but conservative concentration inequalities and end up over-covering/under-rejecting. To circumvent these issues, we sidestep exact at-least-$\alpha$ coverage and focus on asymptotically exact coverage and asymptotic optimality. That is, we seek sequential tests whose probability of ever rejecting a true hypothesis asymptotically approaches $\alpha$ and whose expected time to reject a false hypothesis approaches a lower bound on all tests with asymptotic coverage at least $\alpha$, both under an appropriate asymptotic regime. We permit observations to be both non-parametric and dependent and focus on testing whether the observations form a martingale difference sequence. We propose the universal sequential probability ratio test (uSPRT), a slight modification to the normal-mixture sequential probability ratio test, where we add a burn-in period and adjust thresholds accordingly. We show that even in this very general setting, the uSPRT is asymptotically optimal under mild generic conditions. We apply the results to stabilized estimating equations to test means, treatment effects, etc. Our results also provide corresponding guarantees for the implied confidence sequences. Numerical simulations verify our guarantees and the benefits of the uSPRT over alternatives.

A Review of Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) is one of the most vibrant research frontiers in machine learning and has been recently applied to solve a number of challenging problems. In this paper, we primarily focus on off-policy evaluation (OPE), one of the most fundamental topics in RL. In recent years, a number of OPE methods have been developed in the statistics and computer science literature. We provide a discussion on the efficiency bound of OPE, some of the existing state-of-the-art OPE methods, their statistical properties and some other related research directions that are currently actively explored.

The Implicit Delta Method

Epistemic uncertainty quantification is a crucial part of drawing credible conclusions from predictive models, whether concerned about the prediction at a given point or any downstream evaluation that uses the model as input. When the predictive model is simple and its evaluation differentiable, this task is solved by the delta method, where we propagate the asymptotically-normal uncertainty in the predictive model through the evaluation to compute standard errors and Wald confidence intervals. However, this becomes difficult when the model and/or evaluation becomes more complex. Remedies include the bootstrap, but it can be computationally infeasible when training the model even once is costly. In this paper, we propose an alternative, the implicit delta method, which works by infinitesimally regularizing the training loss of the predictive model to automatically assess downstream uncertainty. We show that the change in the evaluation due to regularization is consistent for the asymptotic variance of the evaluation estimator, even when the infinitesimal change is approximated by a finite difference. This provides both a reliable quantification of uncertainty in terms of standard errors as well as permits the construction of calibrated confidence intervals. We discuss connections to other approaches to uncertainty quantification, both Bayesian and frequentist, and demonstrate our approach empirically.

Provable Safe Reinforcement Learning with Binary Feedback

Safety is a crucial necessity in many applications of reinforcement learning (RL), whether robotic, automotive, or medical. Many existing approaches to safe RL rely on receiving numeric safety feedback, but in many cases this feedback can only take binary values; that is, whether an action in a given state is safe or unsafe. This is particularly true when feedback comes from human experts. We therefore consider the problem of provable safe RL when given access to an offline oracle providing binary feedback on the safety of state, action pairs. We provide a novel meta algorithm, SABRE, which can be applied to any MDP setting given access to a blackbox PAC RL algorithm for that setting. SABRE applies concepts from active learning to reinforcement learning to provably control the number of queries to the safety oracle. SABRE works by iteratively exploring the state space to find regions where the agent is currently uncertain about safety. Our main theoretical results shows that, under appropriate technical assumptions, SABRE never takes unsafe actions during training, and is guaranteed to return a near-optimal safe policy with high probability. We provide a discussion of how our meta-algorithm may be applied to various settings studied in both theoretical and empirical frameworks.

Debiased Inference on Identified Linear Functionals of Underidentified Nuisances via Penalized Minimax Estimation

We study generic inference on identified linear functionals of nonunique nuisances defined as solutions to underidentified conditional moment restrictions. This problem appears in a variety of applications, including nonparametric instrumental variable models, proximal causal inference under unmeasured confounding, and missing-not-at-random data with shadow variables. Although the linear functionals of interest, such as average treatment effect, are identifiable under suitable conditions, nonuniqueness of nuisances pose serious challenges to statistical inference, since in this setting common nuisance estimators can be unstable and lack fixed limits. In this paper, we propose penalized minimax estimators for the nuisance functions and show they enable valid inference in this challenging setting. The proposed nuisance estimators can accommodate flexible function classes, and importantly, they can converge to fixed limits determined by the penalization, regardless of whether the nuisances are unique or not. We use the penalized nuisance estimators to form a debiased estimator for the linear functional of interest and prove its asymptotic normality under generic high-level conditions, which provide for asymptotically valid confidence intervals.

Future-Dependent Value-Based Off-Policy Evaluation in POMDPs

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) for partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) with general function approximation. Existing methods such as sequential importance sampling estimators and fitted-Q evaluation suffer from the curse of horizon in POMDPs. To circumvent this problem, we develop a novel model-free OPE method by introducing future-dependent value functions that take future proxies as inputs. Future-dependent value functions play similar roles as classical value functions in fully-observable MDPs. We derive a new Bellman equation for future-dependent value functions as conditional moment equations that use history proxies as instrumental variables. We further propose a minimax learning method to learn future-dependent value functions using the new Bellman equation. We obtain the PAC result, which implies our OPE estimator is consistent as long as futures and histories contain sufficient information about latent states, and the Bellman completeness. Finally, we extend our methods to learning of dynamics and establish the connection between our approach and the well-known spectral learning methods in POMDPs.