Can Language Models Recognize Convincing Arguments?

The remarkable and ever-increasing capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have raised concerns about their potential misuse for creating personalized, convincing misinformation and propaganda. To gain insights into LLMs' persuasive capabilities without directly engaging in experimentation with humans, we propose studying their performance on the related task of detecting convincing arguments. We extend a dataset by Durmus & Cardie (2018) with debates, votes, and user traits and propose tasks measuring LLMs' ability to (1) distinguish between strong and weak arguments, (2) predict stances based on beliefs and demographic characteristics, and (3) determine the appeal of an argument to an individual based on their traits. We show that LLMs perform on par with humans in these tasks and that combining predictions from different LLMs yields significant performance gains, even surpassing human performance. The data and code released with this paper contribute to the crucial ongoing effort of continuously evaluating and monitoring the rapidly evolving capabilities and potential impact of LLMs.

Prevalence and prevention of large language model use in crowd work

We show that the use of large language models (LLMs) is prevalent among crowd workers, and that targeted mitigation strategies can significantly reduce, but not eliminate, LLM use. On a text summarization task where workers were not directed in any way regarding their LLM use, the estimated prevalence of LLM use was around 30%, but was reduced by about half by asking workers to not use LLMs and by raising the cost of using them, e.g., by disabling copy-pasting. Secondary analyses give further insight into LLM use and its prevention: LLM use yields high-quality but homogeneous responses, which may harm research concerned with human (rather than model) behavior and degrade future models trained with crowdsourced data. At the same time, preventing LLM use may be at odds with obtaining high-quality responses; e.g., when requesting workers not to use LLMs, summaries contained fewer keywords carrying essential information. Our estimates will likely change as LLMs increase in popularity or capabilities, and as norms around their usage change. Yet, understanding the co-evolution of LLM-based tools and users is key to maintaining the validity of research done using crowdsourcing, and we provide a critical baseline before widespread adoption ensues.

Stranger Danger! Cross-Community Interactions with Fringe Users Increase the Growth of Fringe Communities on Reddit

Fringe communities promoting conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies have thrived on mainstream platforms, raising questions about the mechanisms driving their growth. Here, we hypothesize and study a possible mechanism: new members may be recruited through fringe-interactions: the exchange of comments between members and non-members of fringe communities. We apply text-based causal inference techniques to study the impact of fringe-interactions on the growth of three prominent fringe communities on Reddit: r/Incel, r/GenderCritical, and r/The_Donald. Our results indicate that fringe-interactions attract new members to fringe communities. Users who receive these interactions are up to 4.2 percentage points (pp) more likely to join fringe communities than similar, matched users who do not. This effect is influenced by 1) the characteristics of communities where the interaction happens (e.g., left vs. right-leaning communities) and 2) the language used in the interactions. Interactions using toxic language have a 5pp higher chance of attracting newcomers to fringe communities than non-toxic interactions. We find no effect when repeating this analysis by replacing fringe (r/Incel, r/GenderCritical, and r/The_Donald) with non-fringe communities (r/climatechange, r/NBA, r/leagueoflegends), suggesting this growth mechanism is specific to fringe communities. Overall, our findings suggest that curtailing fringe-interactions may reduce the growth of fringe communities on mainstream platforms.

ACTI at EVALITA 2023: Overview of the Conspiracy Theory Identification Task

Conspiracy Theory Identication task is a new shared task proposed for the first time at the Evalita 2023. The ACTI challenge, based exclusively on comments published on conspiratorial channels of telegram, is divided into two subtasks: (i) Conspiratorial Content Classification: identifying conspiratorial content and (ii) Conspiratorial Category Classification about specific conspiracy theory classification. A total of fifteen teams participated in the task for a total of 81 submissions. We illustrate the best performing approaches were based on the utilization of large language models. We finally draw conclusions about the utilization of these models for counteracting the spreading of misinformation in online platforms.

Artificial Artificial Artificial Intelligence: Crowd Workers Widely Use Large Language Models for Text Production Tasks

Large language models (LLMs) are remarkable data annotators. They can be used to generate high-fidelity supervised training data, as well as survey and experimental data. With the widespread adoption of LLMs, human gold--standard annotations are key to understanding the capabilities of LLMs and the validity of their results. However, crowdsourcing, an important, inexpensive way to obtain human annotations, may itself be impacted by LLMs, as crowd workers have financial incentives to use LLMs to increase their productivity and income. To investigate this concern, we conducted a case study on the prevalence of LLM usage by crowd workers. We reran an abstract summarization task from the literature on Amazon Mechanical Turk and, through a combination of keystroke detection and synthetic text classification, estimate that 33-46% of crowd workers used LLMs when completing the task. Although generalization to other, less LLM-friendly tasks is unclear, our results call for platforms, researchers, and crowd workers to find new ways to ensure that human data remain human, perhaps using the methodology proposed here as a stepping stone. Code/data: https://github.com/epfl-dlab/GPTurk

Generating Faithful Synthetic Data with Large Language Models: A Case Study in Computational Social Science

Large Language Models (LLMs) have democratized synthetic data generation, which in turn has the potential to simplify and broaden a wide gamut of NLP tasks. Here, we tackle a pervasive problem in synthetic data generation: its generative distribution often differs from the distribution of real-world data researchers care about (in other words, it is unfaithful). In a case study on sarcasm detection, we study three strategies to increase the faithfulness of synthetic data: grounding, filtering, and taxonomy-based generation. We evaluate these strategies using the performance of classifiers trained with generated synthetic data on real-world data. While all three strategies improve the performance of classifiers, we find that grounding works best for the task at hand. As synthetic data generation plays an ever-increasing role in NLP research, we expect this work to be a stepping stone in improving its utility. We conclude this paper with some recommendations on how to generate high(er)-fidelity synthetic data for specific tasks.

Understanding Online Migration Decisions Following the Banning of Radical Communities

The proliferation of radical online communities and their violent offshoots has sparked great societal concern. However, the current practice of banning such communities from mainstream platforms has unintended consequences: (I) the further radicalization of their members in fringe platforms where they migrate; and (ii) the spillover of harmful content from fringe back onto mainstream platforms. Here, in a large observational study on two banned subreddits, r/The\_Donald and r/fatpeoplehate, we examine how factors associated with the RECRO radicalization framework relate to users' migration decisions. Specifically, we quantify how these factors affect users' decisions to post on fringe platforms and, for those who do, whether they continue posting on the mainstream platform. Our results show that individual-level factors, those relating to the behavior of users, are associated with the decision to post on the fringe platform. Whereas social-level factors, users' connection with the radical community, only affect the propensity to be coactive on both platforms. Overall, our findings pave the way for evidence-based moderation policies, as the decisions to migrate and remain coactive amplify unintended consequences of community bans.

Spillover of Antisocial Behavior from Fringe Platforms: The Unintended Consequences of Community Banning

Online platforms face pressure to keep their communities civil and respectful. Thus, the bannings of problematic online communities from mainstream platforms like Reddit and Facebook are often met with enthusiastic public reactions. However, this policy can lead users to migrate to alternative fringe platforms with lower moderation standards and where antisocial behaviors like trolling and harassment are widely accepted. As users of these communities often remain \ca across mainstream and fringe platforms, antisocial behaviors may spill over onto the mainstream platform. We study this possible spillover by analyzing around $70,000$ users from three banned communities that migrated to fringe platforms: r/The\_Donald, r/GenderCritical, and r/Incels. Using a difference-in-differences design, we contrast \ca users with matched counterparts to estimate the causal effect of fringe platform participation on users' antisocial behavior on Reddit. Our results show that participating in the fringe communities increases users' toxicity on Reddit (as measured by Perspective API) and involvement with subreddits similar to the banned community -- which often also breach platform norms. The effect intensifies with time and exposure to the fringe platform. In short, we find evidence for a spillover of antisocial behavior from fringe platforms onto Reddit via co-participation.

Automatic Diagnosis of the Short-Duration 12-Lead ECG using a Deep Neural Network: the CODE Study

We present a Deep Neural Network (DNN) model for predicting electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities in short-duration 12-lead ECG recordings. The analysis of the digital ECG obtained in a clinical setting can provide a full evaluation of the cardiac electrical activity and have not been studied in an end-to-end machine learning scenario. Using the database of the Telehealth Network of Minas Gerais, under the scope of the CODE (Clinical Outcomes in Digital Electrocardiology) study, we built a novel dataset with more than 2 million ECG tracings, orders of magnitude larger than those used in previous studies. Moreover, our dataset is more realistic, as it consists of 12-lead ECGs recorded during standard in-clinic exams. Using this data, we trained a residual neural network with 9 convolutional layers to map ECG signals with a duration of 7 to 10 seconds into 6 different classes of ECG abnormalities. High-performance measures were obtained for all ECG abnormalities, with F1 scores above $80\%$ and specificity indexes over $99\%$. We compare the performance with cardiology and emergency resident medical doctors as well as medical students and, considering the F1 score, the DNN matches or outperforms the medical residents and students for all abnormalities. These results indicate that end-to-end automatic ECG analysis based on DNNs, previously used only in a single-lead setup, generalizes well to the 12-lead ECG. This is an important result in that it takes this technology much closer to standard clinical practice.

Automatic Diagnosis of Short-Duration 12-Lead ECG using a Deep Convolutional Network

We present a model for predicting electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities in short-duration 12-lead ECG signals which outperformed medical doctors on the 4th year of their cardiology residency. Such exams can provide a full evaluation of heart activity and have not been studied in previous end-to-end machine learning papers. Using the database of a large telehealth network, we built a novel dataset with more than 2 million ECG tracings, orders of magnitude larger than those used in previous studies. Moreover, our dataset is more realistic, as it consist of 12-lead ECGs recorded during standard in-clinics exams. Using this data, we trained a residual neural network with 9 convolutional layers to map 7 to 10 second ECG signals to 6 classes of ECG abnormalities. Future work should extend these results to cover a large range of ECG abnormalities, which could improve the accessibility of this diagnostic tool and avoid wrong diagnosis from medical doctors.