Interpretable Multi-Source Data Fusion Through Latent Variable Gaussian Process

With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), various domains of science and engineering communites has leveraged data-driven surrogates to model complex systems from numerous sources of information (data). The proliferation has led to significant reduction in cost and time involved in development of superior systems designed to perform specific functionalities. A high proposition of such surrogates are built extensively fusing multiple sources of data, may it be published papers, patents, open repositories, or other resources. However, not much attention has been paid to the differences in quality and comprehensiveness of the known and unknown underlying physical parameters of the information sources that could have downstream implications during system optimization. Towards resolving this issue, a multi-source data fusion framework based on Latent Variable Gaussian Process (LVGP) is proposed. The individual data sources are tagged as a characteristic categorical variable that are mapped into a physically interpretable latent space, allowing the development of source-aware data fusion modeling. Additionally, a dissimilarity metric based on the latent variables of LVGP is introduced to study and understand the differences in the sources of data. The proposed approach is demonstrated on and analyzed through two mathematical (representative parabola problem, 2D Ackley function) and two materials science (design of FeCrAl and SmCoFe alloys) case studies. From the case studies, it is observed that compared to using single-source and source unaware ML models, the proposed multi-source data fusion framework can provide better predictions for sparse-data problems, interpretability regarding the sources, and enhanced modeling capabilities by taking advantage of the correlations and relationships among different sources.

Methods for Acquiring and Incorporating Knowledge into Stock Price Prediction: A Survey

Predicting stock prices presents a challenging research problem due to the inherent volatility and non-linear nature of the stock market. In recent years, knowledge-enhanced stock price prediction methods have shown groundbreaking results by utilizing external knowledge to understand the stock market. Despite the importance of these methods, there is a scarcity of scholarly works that systematically synthesize previous studies from the perspective of external knowledge types. Specifically, the external knowledge can be modeled in different data structures, which we group into non-graph-based formats and graph-based formats: 1) non-graph-based knowledge captures contextual information and multimedia descriptions specifically associated with an individual stock; 2) graph-based knowledge captures interconnected and interdependent information in the stock market. This survey paper aims to provide a systematic and comprehensive description of methods for acquiring external knowledge from various unstructured data sources and then incorporating it into stock price prediction models. We also explore fusion methods for combining external knowledge with historical price features. Moreover, this paper includes a compilation of relevant datasets and delves into potential future research directions in this domain.

Unleashing the Potential of Unsupervised Deep Outlier Detection through Automated Training Stopping

Outlier detection (OD) has received continuous research interests due to its wide applications. With the development of deep learning, increasingly deep OD algorithms are proposed. Despite the availability of numerous deep OD models, existing research has reported that the performance of deep models is extremely sensitive to the configuration of hyperparameters (HPs). However, the selection of HPs for deep OD models remains a notoriously difficult task due to the lack of any labels and long list of HPs. In our study. we shed light on an essential factor, training time, that can introduce significant variation in the performance of deep model. Even the performance is stable across other HPs, training time itself can cause a serious HP sensitivity issue. Motivated by this finding, we are dedicated to formulating a strategy to terminate model training at the optimal iteration. Specifically, we propose a novel metric called loss entropy to internally evaluate the model performance during training while an automated training stopping algorithm is devised. To our knowledge, our approach is the first to enable reliable identification of the optimal training iteration during training without requiring any labels. Our experiments on tabular, image datasets show that our approach can be applied to diverse deep models and datasets. It not only enhances the robustness of deep models to their HPs, but also improves the performance and reduces plenty of training time compared to naive training.

Application of probabilistic modeling and automated machine learning framework for high-dimensional stress field

Modern computational methods, involving highly sophisticated mathematical formulations, enable several tasks like modeling complex physical phenomenon, predicting key properties and design optimization. The higher fidelity in these computer models makes it computationally intensive to query them hundreds of times for optimization and one usually relies on a simplified model albeit at the cost of losing predictive accuracy and precision. Towards this, data-driven surrogate modeling methods have shown a lot of promise in emulating the behavior of the expensive computer models. However, a major bottleneck in such methods is the inability to deal with high input dimensionality and the need for relatively large datasets. With such problems, the input and output quantity of interest are tensors of high dimensionality. Commonly used surrogate modeling methods for such problems, suffer from requirements like high number of computational evaluations that precludes one from performing other numerical tasks like uncertainty quantification and statistical analysis. In this work, we propose an end-to-end approach that maps a high-dimensional image like input to an output of high dimensionality or its key statistics. Our approach uses two main framework that perform three steps: a) reduce the input and output from a high-dimensional space to a reduced or low-dimensional space, b) model the input-output relationship in the low-dimensional space, and c) enable the incorporation of domain-specific physical constraints as masks. In order to accomplish the task of reducing input dimensionality we leverage principal component analysis, that is coupled with two surrogate modeling methods namely: a) Bayesian hybrid modeling, and b) DeepHyper's deep neural networks. We demonstrate the applicability of the approach on a problem of a linear elastic stress field data.

Are we really making much progress in unsupervised graph outlier detection? Revisiting the problem with new insight and superior method

A large number of studies on Graph Outlier Detection (GOD) have emerged in recent years due to its wide applications, in which Unsupervised Node Outlier Detection (UNOD) on attributed networks is an important area. UNOD focuses on detecting two kinds of typical outliers in graphs: the structural outlier and the contextual outlier. Most existing works conduct the experiments based on the datasets with injected outliers. However, we find that the most widely-used outlier injection approach has a serious data leakage issue. By only utilizing such data leakage, a simple approach can achieve the state-of-the-art performance in detecting outliers. In addition, we observe that most existing algorithms have performance drops with varied injection settings. The other major issue is on balanced detection performance between the two types of outliers, which has not been considered by existing studies. In this paper, we analyze the cause of the data leakage issue in depth since the injection approach is a building block to advance UNOD. Moreover, we devise a novel variance-based model to detect structural outliers, which is more robust to different injection settings. On top of this, we propose a new framework, Variance-based Graph Outlier Detection (VGOD), which combines our variance-based model and attribute reconstruction model to detect outliers in a balanced way. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and the efficiency of VGOD. The results on 5 real-world datasets validate that VGOD achieves not only the best performance in detecting outliers but also a balanced detection performance between structural and contextual outliers.

A Framework for CSI-Based Indoor Localization with 1D Convolutional Neural Networks

Modern indoor localization techniques are essential to overcome the weak GPS coverage in indoor environments. Recently, considerable progress has been made in Channel State Information (CSI) based indoor localization with signal fingerprints. However, CSI signal patterns can be complicated in the large and highly dynamic indoor spaces with complex interiors, thus a solution for solving this issue is urgently needed to expand the applications of CSI to a broader indoor space. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end solution including data collection, pattern clustering, denoising, calibration and a lightweight one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D CNN) model with CSI fingerprinting to tackle this problem. We have also created and plan to open source a CSI dataset with a large amount of data collected across complex indoor environments at Colorado State University. Experiments indicate that our approach achieves up to 68.5% improved performance (mean distance error) with minimal number of parameters, compared to the best-known deep machine learning and CSI-based indoor localization works.

Inverse Aerodynamic Design of Gas Turbine Blades using Probabilistic Machine Learning

One of the critical components in Industrial Gas Turbines (IGT) is the turbine blade. Design of turbine blades needs to consider multiple aspects like aerodynamic efficiency, durability, safety and manufacturing, which make the design process sequential and iterative.The sequential nature of these iterations forces a long design cycle time, ranging from several months to years. Due to the reactionary nature of these iterations, little effort has been made to accumulate data in a manner that allows for deep exploration and understanding of the total design space. This is exemplified in the process of designing the individual components of the IGT resulting in a potential unrealized efficiency. To overcome the aforementioned challenges, we demonstrate a probabilistic inverse design machine learning framework (PMI), to carry out an explicit inverse design. PMI calculates the design explicitly without excessive costly iteration and overcomes the challenges associated with ill-posed inverse problems. In this work, the framework will be demonstrated on inverse aerodynamic design of three-dimensional turbine blades.

Fully Hyperbolic Graph Convolution Network for Recommendation

Recently, Graph Convolution Network (GCN) based methods have achieved outstanding performance for recommendation. These methods embed users and items in Euclidean space, and perform graph convolution on user-item interaction graphs. However, real-world datasets usually exhibit tree-like hierarchical structures, which make Euclidean space less effective in capturing user-item relationship. In contrast, hyperbolic space, as a continuous analogue of a tree-graph, provides a promising alternative. In this paper, we propose a fully hyperbolic GCN model for recommendation, where all operations are performed in hyperbolic space. Utilizing the advantage of hyperbolic space, our method is able to embed users/items with less distortion and capture user-item interaction relationship more accurately. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets show that our method outperforms both Euclidean and hyperbolic counterparts and requires far lower embedding dimensionality to achieve comparable performance.

Label-informed Graph Structure Learning for Node Classification

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved great success among various domains. Nevertheless, most GNN methods are sensitive to the quality of graph structures. To tackle this problem, some studies exploit different graph structure learning strategies to refine the original graph structure. However, these methods only consider feature information while ignoring available label information. In this paper, we propose a novel label-informed graph structure learning framework which incorporates label information explicitly through a class transition matrix. We conduct extensive experiments on seven node classification benchmark datasets and the results show that our method outperforms or matches the state-of-the-art baselines.