Causality Enhanced Origin-Destination Flow Prediction in Data-Scarce Cities

Accurate origin-destination (OD) flow prediction is of great importance to developing cities, as it can contribute to optimize urban structures and layouts. However, with the common issues of missing regional features and lacking OD flow data, it is quite daunting to predict OD flow in developing cities. To address this challenge, we propose a novel Causality-Enhanced OD Flow Prediction (CE-OFP), a unified framework that aims to transfer urban knowledge between cities and achieve accuracy improvements in OD flow predictions across data-scarce cities. In specific, we propose a novel reinforcement learning model to discover universal causalities among urban features in data-rich cities and build corresponding causal graphs. Then, we further build Causality-Enhanced Variational Auto-Encoder (CE-VAE) to incorporate causal graphs for effective feature reconstruction in data-scarce cities. Finally, with the reconstructed features, we devise a knowledge distillation method with a graph attention network to migrate the OD prediction model from data-rich cities to data-scare cities. Extensive experiments on two pairs of real-world datasets validate that the proposed CE-OFP remarkably outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, which can reduce the RMSE of OD flow prediction for data-scarce cities by up to 11%.

Causal Discovery and Inference towards Urban Elements and Associated Factors

To uncover the city's fundamental functioning mechanisms, it is important to acquire a deep understanding of complicated relationships among citizens, location, and mobility behaviors. Previous research studies have applied direct correlation analysis to investigate such relationships. Nevertheless, due to the ubiquitous confounding effects, empirical correlation analysis may not accurately reflect underlying causal relationships among basic urban elements. In this paper, we propose a novel urban causal computing framework to comprehensively explore causalities and confounding effects among a variety of factors across different types of urban elements. In particular, we design a reinforcement learning algorithm to discover the potential causal graph, which depicts the causal relations between urban factors. The causal graph further serves as the guidance for estimating causal effects between pair-wise urban factors by propensity score matching. After removing the confounding effects from correlations, we leverage significance levels of causal effects in downstream urban mobility prediction tasks. Experimental studies on open-source urban datasets show that the discovered causal graph demonstrates a hierarchical structure, where citizens affect locations, and they both cause changes in urban mobility behaviors. Experimental results in urban mobility prediction tasks further show that the proposed method can effectively reduce confounding effects and enhance performance of urban computing tasks.

EPR-GAIL: An EPR-Enhanced Hierarchical Imitation Learning Framework to Simulate Complex User Consumption Behaviors

User consumption behavior data, which records individuals' online spending history at various types of stores, has been widely used in various applications, such as store recommendation, site selection, and sale forecasting. However, its high worth is limited due to deficiencies in data comprehensiveness and changes of application scenarios. Thus, generating high-quality sequential consumption data by simulating complex user consumption behaviors is of great importance to real-world applications. Two branches of existing sequence generation methods are both limited in quality. Model-based methods with simplified assumptions fail to model the complex decision process of user consumption, while data-driven methods that emulate real-world data are prone to noises, unobserved behaviors, and dynamic decision space. In this work, we propose to enhance the fidelity and trustworthiness of the data-driven Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) method by blending it with the Exploration and Preferential Return EPR model . The core idea of our EPR-GAIL framework is to model user consumption behaviors as a complex EPR decision process, which consists of purchase, exploration, and preference decisions. Specifically, we design the hierarchical policy function in the generator as a realization of the EPR decision process and employ the probability distributions of the EPR model to guide the reward function in the discriminator. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets of user consumption behaviors on an online platform demonstrate that the EPR-GAIL framework outperforms the best state-of-the-art baseline by over 19\% in terms of data fidelity. Furthermore, the generated consumption behavior data can improve the performance of sale prediction and location recommendation by up to 35.29% and 11.19%, respectively, validating its advantage for practical applications.

Predicting the Energy Landscape of Stochastic Dynamical System via Physics-informed Self-supervised Learning

Energy landscapes play a crucial role in shaping dynamics of many real-world complex systems. System evolution is often modeled as particles moving on a landscape under the combined effect of energy-driven drift and noise-induced diffusion, where the energy governs the long-term motion of the particles. Estimating the energy landscape of a system has been a longstanding interdisciplinary challenge, hindered by the high operational costs or the difficulty of obtaining supervisory signals. Therefore, the question of how to infer the energy landscape in the absence of true energy values is critical. In this paper, we propose a physics-informed self-supervised learning method to learn the energy landscape from the evolution trajectories of the system. It first maps the system state from the observation space to a discrete landscape space by an adaptive codebook, and then explicitly integrates energy into the graph neural Fokker-Planck equation, enabling the joint learning of energy estimation and evolution prediction. Experimental results across interdisciplinary systems demonstrate that our estimated energy has a correlation coefficient above 0.9 with the ground truth, and evolution prediction accuracy exceeds the baseline by an average of 17.65\%. The code is available at github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PESLA.

A Survey on Responsible LLMs: Inherent Risk, Malicious Use, and Mitigation Strategy

While large language models (LLMs) present significant potential for supporting numerous real-world applications and delivering positive social impacts, they still face significant challenges in terms of the inherent risk of privacy leakage, hallucinated outputs, and value misalignment, and can be maliciously used for generating toxic content and unethical purposes after been jailbroken. Therefore, in this survey, we present a comprehensive review of recent advancements aimed at mitigating these issues, organized across the four phases of LLM development and usage: data collecting and pre-training, fine-tuning and alignment, prompting and reasoning, and post-processing and auditing. We elaborate on the recent advances for enhancing the performance of LLMs in terms of privacy protection, hallucination reduction, value alignment, toxicity elimination, and jailbreak defenses. In contrast to previous surveys that focus on a single dimension of responsible LLMs, this survey presents a unified framework that encompasses these diverse dimensions, providing a comprehensive view of enhancing LLMs to better serve real-world applications.

MIA-Tuner: Adapting Large Language Models as Pre-training Text Detector

The increasing parameters and expansive dataset of large language models (LLMs) highlight the urgent demand for a technical solution to audit the underlying privacy risks and copyright issues associated with LLMs. Existing studies have partially addressed this need through an exploration of the pre-training data detection problem, which is an instance of a membership inference attack (MIA). This problem involves determining whether a given piece of text has been used during the pre-training phase of the target LLM. Although existing methods have designed various sophisticated MIA score functions to achieve considerable detection performance in pre-trained LLMs, how to achieve high-confidence detection and how to perform MIA on aligned LLMs remain challenging. In this paper, we propose MIA-Tuner, a novel instruction-based MIA method, which instructs LLMs themselves to serve as a more precise pre-training data detector internally, rather than design an external MIA score function. Furthermore, we design two instruction-based safeguards to respectively mitigate the privacy risks brought by the existing methods and MIA-Tuner. To comprehensively evaluate the most recent state-of-the-art LLMs, we collect a more up-to-date MIA benchmark dataset, named WIKIMIA-24, to replace the widely adopted benchmark WIKIMIA. We conduct extensive experiments across various aligned and unaligned LLMs over the two benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that MIA-Tuner increases the AUC of MIAs from 0.7 to a significantly high level of 0.9.

PateGail: A Privacy-Preserving Mobility Trajectory Generator with Imitation Learning

Generating human mobility trajectories is of great importance to solve the lack of large-scale trajectory data in numerous applications, which is caused by privacy concerns. However, existing mobility trajectory generation methods still require real-world human trajectories centrally collected as the training data, where there exists an inescapable risk of privacy leakage. To overcome this limitation, in this paper, we propose PateGail, a privacy-preserving imitation learning model to generate mobility trajectories, which utilizes the powerful generative adversary imitation learning model to simulate the decision-making process of humans. Further, in order to protect user privacy, we train this model collectively based on decentralized mobility data stored in user devices, where personal discriminators are trained locally to distinguish and reward the real and generated human trajectories. In the training process, only the generated trajectories and their rewards obtained based on personal discriminators are shared between the server and devices, whose privacy is further preserved by our proposed perturbation mechanisms with theoretical proof to satisfy differential privacy. Further, to better model the human decision-making process, we propose a novel aggregation mechanism of the rewards obtained from personal discriminators. We theoretically prove that under the reward obtained based on the aggregation mechanism, our proposed model maximizes the lower bound of the discounted total rewards of users. Extensive experiments show that the trajectories generated by our model are able to resemble real-world trajectories in terms of five key statistical metrics, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithms by over 48.03%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the synthetic trajectories are able to efficiently support practical applications, including mobility prediction and location recommendation.

Artificial Intelligence for Complex Network: Potential, Methodology and Application

Complex networks pervade various real-world systems, from the natural environment to human societies. The essence of these networks is in their ability to transition and evolve from microscopic disorder-where network topology and node dynamics intertwine-to a macroscopic order characterized by certain collective behaviors. Over the past two decades, complex network science has significantly enhanced our understanding of the statistical mechanics, structures, and dynamics underlying real-world networks. Despite these advancements, there remain considerable challenges in exploring more realistic systems and enhancing practical applications. The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, coupled with the abundance of diverse real-world network data, has heralded a new era in complex network science research. This survey aims to systematically address the potential advantages of AI in overcoming the lingering challenges of complex network research. It endeavors to summarize the pivotal research problems and provide an exhaustive review of the corresponding methodologies and applications. Through this comprehensive survey-the first of its kind on AI for complex networks-we expect to provide valuable insights that will drive further research and advancement in this interdisciplinary field.

Practical Membership Inference Attacks against Fine-tuned Large Language Models via Self-prompt Calibration

Membership Inference Attacks (MIA) aim to infer whether a target data record has been utilized for model training or not. Prior attempts have quantified the privacy risks of language models (LMs) via MIAs, but there is still no consensus on whether existing MIA algorithms can cause remarkable privacy leakage on practical Large Language Models (LLMs). Existing MIAs designed for LMs can be classified into two categories: reference-free and reference-based attacks. They are both based on the hypothesis that training records consistently strike a higher probability of being sampled. Nevertheless, this hypothesis heavily relies on the overfitting of target models, which will be mitigated by multiple regularization methods and the generalization of LLMs. The reference-based attack seems to achieve promising effectiveness in LLMs, which measures a more reliable membership signal by comparing the probability discrepancy between the target model and the reference model. However, the performance of reference-based attack is highly dependent on a reference dataset that closely resembles the training dataset, which is usually inaccessible in the practical scenario. Overall, existing MIAs are unable to effectively unveil privacy leakage over practical fine-tuned LLMs that are overfitting-free and private. We propose a Membership Inference Attack based on Self-calibrated Probabilistic Variation (SPV-MIA). Specifically, since memorization in LLMs is inevitable during the training process and occurs before overfitting, we introduce a more reliable membership signal, probabilistic variation, which is based on memorization rather than overfitting. Furthermore, we introduce a self-prompt approach, which constructs the dataset to fine-tune the reference model by prompting the target LLM itself. In this manner, the adversary can collect a dataset with a similar distribution from public APIs.

A Probabilistic Fluctuation based Membership Inference Attack for Diffusion Models

Membership Inference Attack (MIA) identifies whether a record exists in a machine learning model's training set by querying the model. MIAs on the classic classification models have been well-studied, and recent works have started to explore how to transplant MIA onto generative models. Our investigation indicates that existing MIAs designed for generative models mainly depend on the overfitting in target models. However, overfitting can be avoided by employing various regularization techniques, whereas existing MIAs demonstrate poor performance in practice. Unlike overfitting, memorization is essential for deep learning models to attain optimal performance, making it a more prevalent phenomenon. Memorization in generative models leads to an increasing trend in the probability distribution of generating records around the member record. Therefore, we propose a Probabilistic Fluctuation Assessing Membership Inference Attack (PFAMI), a black-box MIA that infers memberships by detecting these trends via analyzing the overall probabilistic fluctuations around given records. We conduct extensive experiments across multiple generative models and datasets, which demonstrate PFAMI can improve the attack success rate (ASR) by about 27.9% when compared with the best baseline.