Efficient Counterfactual Reasoning in ProbLog via Single World Intervention Programs

Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP) languages, like ProbLog, naturally support reasoning under uncertainty, while maintaining a declarative and interpretable framework. Meanwhile, counterfactual reasoning (i.e., answering ``what if'' questions) is critical for ensuring AI systems are robust and trustworthy; however, integrating this capability into PLP can be computationally prohibitive and unstable in accuracy. This paper addresses this challenge, by proposing an efficient program transformation for counterfactuals as Single World Intervention Programs (SWIPs) in ProbLog. By systematically splitting ProbLog clauses to observed and fixed components relevant to a counterfactual, we create a transformed program that (1) does not asymptotically exceed the computational complexity of existing methods, and is strictly smaller in common cases, and (2) reduces counterfactual reasoning to marginal inference over a simpler program. We formally prove the correctness of our approach, which relies on a weaker set independence assumptions and is consistent with conditional independencies, showing the resulting marginal probabilities match the counterfactual distributions of the underlying Structural Causal Model in wide domains. Our method achieves a 35\% reduction in inference time versus existing methods in extensive experiments. This work makes complex counterfactual reasoning more computationally tractable and reliable, providing a crucial step towards developing more robust and explainable AI systems. The code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/swip.

Integrating LTL Constraints into PPO for Safe Reinforcement Learning

This paper proposes Proximal Policy Optimization with Linear Temporal Logic Constraints (PPO-LTL), a framework that integrates safety constraints written in LTL into PPO for safe reinforcement learning. LTL constraints offer rigorous representations of complex safety requirements, such as regulations that broadly exist in robotics, enabling systematic monitoring of safety requirements. Violations against LTL constraints are monitored by limit-deterministic Büchi automata, and then translated by a logic-to-cost mechanism into penalty signals. The signals are further employed for guiding the policy optimization via the Lagrangian scheme. Extensive experiments on the Zones and CARLA environments show that our PPO-LTL can consistently reduce safety violations, while maintaining competitive performance, against the state-of-the-art methods. The code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/PPO-LTL.

Generalisation of RLHF under Reward Shift and Clipped KL Regularisation

Alignment and adaptation in large language models heavily rely on reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF); yet, theoretical understanding of its generalisability remains premature, especially when the learned reward could shift, and the KL control is estimated and clipped. To address this issue, we develop generalisation theory for RLHF that explicitly accounts for (1) \emph{reward shift}: reward models are trained on preference data from earlier or mixed behaviour policies while RLHF optimises the current policy on its own rollouts; and (2) \emph{clipped KL regularisation}: the KL regulariser is estimated from sampled log-probability ratios and then clipped for stabilisation, resulting in an error to RLHF. We present generalisation bounds for RLHF, suggesting that the generalisation error stems from a sampling error from prompts and rollouts, a reward shift error, and a KL clipping error. We also discuss special cases of (1) initialising RLHF parameters with a uniform prior over a finite space, and (2) training RLHF by stochastic gradient descent, as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The theory yields practical implications in (1) optimal KL clipping threshold, and (2) budget allocation in prompts, rollouts, and preference data.

Near-Constant Strong Violation and Last-Iterate Convergence for Online CMDPs via Decaying Safety Margins

We study safe online reinforcement learning in Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) under strong regret and violation metrics, which forbid error cancellation over time. Existing primal-dual methods that achieve sublinear strong reward regret inevitably incur growing strong constraint violation or are restricted to average-iterate convergence due to inherent oscillations. To address these limitations, we propose the Flexible safety Domain Optimization via Margin-regularized Exploration (FlexDOME) algorithm, the first to provably achieve near-constant $\tilde{O}(1)$ strong constraint violation alongside sublinear strong regret and non-asymptotic last-iterate convergence. FlexDOME incorporates time-varying safety margins and regularization terms into the primal-dual framework. Our theoretical analysis relies on a novel term-wise asymptotic dominance strategy, where the safety margin is rigorously scheduled to asymptotically majorize the functional decay rates of the optimization and statistical errors, thereby clamping cumulative violations to a near-constant level. Furthermore, we establish non-asymptotic last-iterate convergence guarantees via a policy-dual Lyapunov argument. Experiments corroborate our theoretical findings.

Rationality Measurement and Theory for Reinforcement Learning Agents

This paper proposes a suite of rationality measures and associated theory for reinforcement learning agents, a property increasingly critical yet rarely explored. We define an action in deployment to be perfectly rational if it maximises the hidden true value function in the steepest direction. The expected value discrepancy of a policy's actions against their rational counterparts, culminating over the trajectory in deployment, is defined to be expected rational risk; an empirical average version in training is also defined. Their difference, termed as rational risk gap, is decomposed into (1) an extrinsic component caused by environment shifts between training and deployment, and (2) an intrinsic one due to the algorithm's generalisability in a dynamic environment. They are upper bounded by, respectively, (1) the $1$-Wasserstein distance between transition kernels and initial state distributions in training and deployment, and (2) the empirical Rademacher complexity of the value function class. Our theory suggests hypotheses on the benefits from regularisers (including layer normalisation, $\ell_2$ regularisation, and weight normalisation) and domain randomisation, as well as the harm from environment shifts. Experiments are in full agreement with these hypotheses. The code is available at https://github.com/EVIEHub/Rationality.

DeXposure-FM: A Time-series, Graph Foundation Model for Credit Exposures and Stability on Decentralized Financial Networks

Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies. Thus, a shock to one token may result in significant and uncontrolled contagion effects. As the DeFi ecosystem becomes increasingly linked with traditional financial infrastructure through instruments, such as stablecoins, the risk posed by this dynamic demands more powerful quantification tools. We introduce DeXposure-FM, the first time-series, graph foundation model for measuring and forecasting inter-protocol credit exposure on DeFi networks, to the best of our knowledge. Employing a graph-tabular encoder, with pre-trained weight initialization, and multiple task-specific heads, DeXposure-FM is trained on the DeXposure dataset that has 43.7 million data entries, across 4,300+ protocols on 602 blockchains, covering 24,300+ unique tokens. The training is operationalized for credit-exposure forecasting, predicting the joint dynamics of (1) protocol-level flows, and (2) the topology and weights of credit-exposure links. The DeXposure-FM is empirically validated on two machine learning benchmarks; it consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, including a graph foundation model and temporal graph neural networks. DeXposure-FM further produces financial economics tools that support macroprudential monitoring and scenario-based DeFi stress testing, by enabling protocol-level systemic-importance scores, sector-level spillover and concentration measures via a forecast-then-measure pipeline. Empirical verification fully supports our financial economics tools. The model and code have been publicly available. Model: https://huggingface.co/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM. Code: https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM.

Drawback of Enforcing Equivariance and its Compensation via the Lens of Expressive Power

Equivariant neural networks encode symmetry as an inductive bias and have achieved strong empirical performance in wide domains. However, their expressive power remains not well understood. Focusing on 2-layer ReLU networks, this paper investigates the impact of equivariance constraints on the expressivity of equivariant and layer-wise equivariant networks. By examining the boundary hyperplanes and the channel vectors of ReLU networks, we construct an example showing that equivariance constraints could strictly limit expressive power. However, we demonstrate that this drawback can be compensated via enlarging the model size. Furthermore, we show that despite a larger model size, the resulting architecture could still correspond to a hypothesis space with lower complexity, implying superior generalizability for equivariant networks.

The Current State of AI Bias Bounties: An Overview of Existing Programmes and Research

Current bias evaluation methods rarely engage with communities impacted by AI systems. Inspired by bug bounties, bias bounties have been proposed as a reward-based method that involves communities in AI bias detection by asking users of AI systems to report biases they encounter when interacting with such systems. In the absence of a state-of-the-art review, this survey aimed to identify and analyse existing AI bias bounty programmes and to present academic literature on bias bounties. Google, Google Scholar, PhilPapers, and IEEE Xplore were searched, and five bias bounty programmes, as well as five research publications, were identified. All bias bounties were organised by U.S.-based organisations as time-limited contests, with public participation in four programmes and prize pools ranging from 7,000 to 24,000 USD. The five research publications included a report on the application of bug bounties to algorithmic harms, an article addressing Twitter's bias bounty, a proposal for bias bounties as an institutional mechanism to increase AI scrutiny, a workshop discussing bias bounties from queer perspectives, and an algorithmic framework for bias bounties. We argue that reducing the technical requirements to enter bounty programmes is important to include those without coding experience. Given the limited adoption of bias bounties, future efforts should explore the transferability of the best practices from bug bounties and examine how such programmes can be designed to be sensitive to underrepresented groups while lowering adoption barriers for organisations.

DICE: Data Influence Cascade in Decentralized Learning

Decentralized learning offers a promising approach to crowdsource data consumptions and computational workloads across geographically distributed compute interconnected through peer-to-peer networks, accommodating the exponentially increasing demands. However, proper incentives are still in absence, considerably discouraging participation. Our vision is that a fair incentive mechanism relies on fair attribution of contributions to participating nodes, which faces non-trivial challenges arising from the localized connections making influence ``cascade'' in a decentralized network. To overcome this, we design the first method to estimate \textbf{D}ata \textbf{I}nfluence \textbf{C}ascad\textbf{E} (DICE) in a decentralized environment. Theoretically, the framework derives tractable approximations of influence cascade over arbitrary neighbor hops, suggesting the influence cascade is determined by an interplay of data, communication topology, and the curvature of loss landscape. DICE also lays the foundations for applications including selecting suitable collaborators and identifying malicious behaviors. Project page is available at https://raiden-zhu.github.io/blog/2025/DICE/.

When a Reinforcement Learning Agent Encounters Unknown Unknowns

An AI agent might surprisingly find she has reached an unknown state which she has never been aware of -- an unknown unknown. We mathematically ground this scenario in reinforcement learning: an agent, after taking an action calculated from value functions $Q$ and $V$ defined on the {\it {aware domain}}, reaches a state out of the domain. To enable the agent to handle this scenario, we propose an {\it episodic Markov decision {process} with growing awareness} (EMDP-GA) model, taking a new {\it noninformative value expansion} (NIVE) approach to expand value functions to newly aware areas: when an agent arrives at an unknown unknown, value functions $Q$ and $V$ whereon are initialised by noninformative beliefs -- the averaged values on the aware domain. This design is out of respect for the complete absence of knowledge in the newly discovered state. The upper confidence bound momentum Q-learning is then adapted to the growing awareness for training the EMDP-GA model. We prove that (1) the regret of our approach is asymptotically consistent with the state of the art (SOTA) without exposure to unknown unknowns in an extremely uncertain environment, and (2) our computational complexity and space complexity are comparable with the SOTA -- these collectively suggest that though an unknown unknown is surprising, it will be asymptotically properly discovered with decent speed and an affordable cost.