MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Signal Quality Auditing for Time-series Data

Signal quality assessment (SQA) is required for monitoring the reliability of data acquisition systems, especially in AI-driven Predictive Maintenance (PMx) application contexts. SQA is vital for addressing "silent failures" of data acquisition hardware and software, which when unnoticed, misinform the users of data, creating the risk for incorrect decisions with unintended or even catastrophic consequences. We have developed an open-source software implementation of signal quality indices (SQIs) for the analysis of time-series data. We codify a range of SQIs, demonstrate them using established benchmark data, and show that they can be effective for signal quality assessment. We also study alternative approaches to denoising time-series data in an attempt to improve the quality of the already degraded signal, and evaluate them empirically on relevant real-world data. To our knowledge, our software toolkit is the first to provide an open source implementation of a broad range of signal quality assessment and improvement techniques validated on publicly available benchmark data for ease of reproducibility. The generality of our framework can be easily extended to assessing reliability of arbitrary time-series measurements in complex systems, especially when morphological patterns of the waveform shapes and signal periodicity are of key interest in downstream analyses.

Motion Informed Needle Segmentation in Ultrasound Images

Segmenting a moving needle in ultrasound images is challenging due to the presence of artifacts, noise, and needle occlusion. This task becomes even more demanding in scenarios where data availability is limited. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been successful in many computer vision applications, but struggle to accurately segment needles without considering their motion. In this paper, we present a novel approach for needle segmentation that combines classical Kalman Filter (KF) techniques with data-driven learning, incorporating both needle features and needle motion. Our method offers two key contributions. First, we propose a compatible framework that seamlessly integrates into commonly used encoder-decoder style architectures. Second, we demonstrate superior performance compared to recent state-of-the-art needle segmentation models using our novel convolutional neural network (CNN) based KF-inspired block, achieving a 15\% reduction in pixel-wise needle tip error and an 8\% reduction in length error. Third, to our knowledge we are the first to implement a learnable filter to incorporate non-linear needle motion for improving needle segmentation.

Forecasting Response to Treatment with Deep Learning and Pharmacokinetic Priors

Forecasting healthcare time series is crucial for early detection of adverse outcomes and for patient monitoring. Forecasting, however, can be difficult in practice due to noisy and intermittent data. The challenges are often exacerbated by change points induced via extrinsic factors, such as the administration of medication. We propose a novel encoder that informs deep learning models of the pharmacokinetic effects of drugs to allow for accurate forecasting of time series affected by treatment. We showcase the effectiveness of our approach in a task to forecast blood glucose using both realistically simulated and real-world data. Our pharmacokinetic encoder helps deep learning models surpass baselines by approximately 11% on simulated data and 8% on real-world data. The proposed approach can have multiple beneficial applications in clinical practice, such as issuing early warnings about unexpected treatment responses, or helping to characterize patient-specific treatment effects in terms of drug absorption and elimination characteristics.

AQuA: A Benchmarking Tool for Label Quality Assessment

Machine learning (ML) models are only as good as the data they are trained on. But recent studies have found datasets widely used to train and evaluate ML models, e.g. ImageNet, to have pervasive labeling errors. Erroneous labels on the train set hurt ML models' ability to generalize, and they impact evaluation and model selection using the test set. Consequently, learning in the presence of labeling errors is an active area of research, yet this field lacks a comprehensive benchmark to evaluate these methods. Most of these methods are evaluated on a few computer vision datasets with significant variance in the experimental protocols. With such a large pool of methods and inconsistent evaluation, it is also unclear how ML practitioners can choose the right models to assess label quality in their data. To this end, we propose a benchmarking environment AQuA to rigorously evaluate methods that enable machine learning in the presence of label noise. We also introduce a design space to delineate concrete design choices of label error detection models. We hope that our proposed design space and benchmark enable practitioners to choose the right tools to improve their label quality and that our benchmark enables objective and rigorous evaluation of machine learning tools facing mislabeled data.

HINT: Hierarchical Mixture Networks For Coherent Probabilistic Forecasting

We present the Hierarchical Mixture Networks (HINT), a model family for efficient and accurate coherent forecasting. We specialize the networks on the task via a multivariate mixture optimized with composite likelihood and made coherent via bootstrap reconciliation. Additionally, we robustify the networks to stark time series scale variations, incorporating normalized feature extraction and recomposition of output scales within their architecture. We demonstrate 8% sCRPS improved accuracy across five datasets compared to the existing state-of-the-art. We conduct ablation studies on our model's components and extensively investigate the theoretical properties of the multivariate mixture. HINT's code is available at this https://github.com/Nixtla/neuralforecast.

Recovering Sparse and Interpretable Subgroups with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects with Censored Time-to-Event Outcomes

Studies involving both randomized experiments as well as observational data typically involve time-to-event outcomes such as time-to-failure, death or onset of an adverse condition. Such outcomes are typically subject to censoring due to loss of follow-up and established statistical practice involves comparing treatment efficacy in terms of hazard ratios between the treated and control groups. In this paper we propose a statistical approach to recovering sparse phenogroups (or subtypes) that demonstrate differential treatment effects as compared to the study population. Our approach involves modelling the data as a mixture while enforcing parameter shrinkage through structured sparsity regularization. We propose a novel inference procedure for the proposed model and demonstrate its efficacy in recovering sparse phenotypes across large landmark real world clinical studies in cardiovascular health.

Reslicing Ultrasound Images for Data Augmentation and Vessel Reconstruction

Robot-guided catheter insertion has the potential to deliver urgent medical care in situations where medical personnel are unavailable. However, this technique requires accurate and reliable segmentation of anatomical landmarks in the body. For the ultrasound imaging modality, obtaining large amounts of training data for a segmentation model is time-consuming and expensive. This paper introduces RESUS (RESlicing of UltraSound Images), a weak supervision data augmentation technique for ultrasound images based on slicing reconstructed 3D volumes from tracked 2D images. This technique allows us to generate views which cannot be easily obtained in vivo due to physical constraints of ultrasound imaging, and use these augmented ultrasound images to train a semantic segmentation model. We demonstrate that RESUS achieves statistically significant improvement over training with non-augmented images and highlight qualitative improvements through vessel reconstruction.

Classifying Unstructured Clinical Notes via Automatic Weak Supervision

Healthcare providers usually record detailed notes of the clinical care delivered to each patient for clinical, research, and billing purposes. Due to the unstructured nature of these narratives, providers employ dedicated staff to assign diagnostic codes to patients' diagnoses using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding system. This manual process is not only time-consuming but also costly and error-prone. Prior work demonstrated potential utility of Machine Learning (ML) methodology in automating this process, but it has relied on large quantities of manually labeled data to train the models. Additionally, diagnostic coding systems evolve with time, which makes traditional supervised learning strategies unable to generalize beyond local applications. In this work, we introduce a general weakly-supervised text classification framework that learns from class-label descriptions only, without the need to use any human-labeled documents. It leverages the linguistic domain knowledge stored within pre-trained language models and the data programming framework to assign code labels to individual texts. We demonstrate the efficacy and flexibility of our method by comparing it to state-of-the-art weak text classifiers across four real-world text classification datasets, in addition to assigning ICD codes to medical notes in the publicly available MIMIC-III database.

The Digital Twin Landscape at the Crossroads of Predictive Maintenance, Machine Learning and Physics Based Modeling

The concept of a digital twin has exploded in popularity over the past decade, yet confusion around its plurality of definitions, its novelty as a new technology, and its practical applicability still exists, all despite numerous reviews, surveys, and press releases. The history of the term digital twin is explored, as well as its initial context in the fields of product life cycle management, asset maintenance, and equipment fleet management, operations, and planning. A definition for a minimally viable framework to utilize a digital twin is also provided based on seven essential elements. A brief tour through DT applications and industries where DT methods are employed is also outlined. The application of a digital twin framework is highlighted in the field of predictive maintenance, and its extensions utilizing machine learning and physics based modeling. Employing the combination of machine learning and physics based modeling to form hybrid digital twin frameworks, may synergistically alleviate the shortcomings of each method when used in isolation. Key challenges of implementing digital twin models in practice are additionally discussed. As digital twin technology experiences rapid growth and as it matures, its great promise to substantially enhance tools and solutions for intelligent upkeep of complex equipment, are expected to materialize.