Omitted Variable Bias in Machine Learned Causal Models

We derive general, yet simple, sharp bounds on the size of the omitted variable bias for a broad class of causal parameters that can be identified as linear functionals of the conditional expectation function of the outcome. Such functionals encompass many of the traditional targets of investigation in causal inference studies, such as, for example, (weighted) average of potential outcomes, average treatment effects (including subgroup effects, such as the effect on the treated), (weighted) average derivatives, and policy effects from shifts in covariate distribution -- all for general, nonparametric causal models. Our construction relies on the Riesz-Frechet representation of the target functional. Specifically, we show how the bound on the bias depends only on the additional variation that the latent variables create both in the outcome and in the Riesz representer for the parameter of interest. Moreover, in many important cases (e.g, average treatment effects in partially linear models, or in nonseparable models with a binary treatment) the bound is shown to depend on two easily interpretable quantities: the nonparametric partial $R^2$ (Pearson's "correlation ratio") of the unobserved variables with the treatment and with the outcome. Therefore, simple plausibility judgments on the maximum explanatory power of omitted variables (in explaining treatment and outcome variation) are sufficient to place overall bounds on the size of the bias. Finally, leveraging debiased machine learning, we provide flexible and efficient statistical inference methods to estimate the components of the bounds that are identifiable from the observed distribution.

Causal Regularization Using Domain Priors

Neural networks leverage both causal and correlation-based relationships in data to learn models that optimize a given performance criterion, such as classification accuracy. This results in learned models that may not necessarily reflect the true causal relationships between input and output. When domain priors of causal relationships are available at the time of training, it is essential that a neural network model maintains these relationships as causal, even as it learns to optimize the performance criterion. We propose a causal regularization method that can incorporate such causal domain priors into the network and which supports both direct and total causal effects. We show that this approach can generalize to various kinds of specifications of causal priors, including monotonicity of causal effect of a given input feature or removing a certain influence for purposes of fairness. Our experiments on eleven benchmark datasets show the usefulness of this approach in regularizing a learned neural network model to maintain desired causal effects. On most datasets, domain-prior consistent models can be obtained without compromising on accuracy.

Sayer: Using Implicit Feedback to Optimize System Policies

We observe that many system policies that make threshold decisions involving a resource (e.g., time, memory, cores) naturally reveal additional, or implicit feedback. For example, if a system waits X min for an event to occur, then it automatically learns what would have happened if it waited <X min, because time has a cumulative property. This feedback tells us about alternative decisions, and can be used to improve the system policy. However, leveraging implicit feedback is difficult because it tends to be one-sided or incomplete, and may depend on the outcome of the event. As a result, existing practices for using feedback, such as simply incorporating it into a data-driven model, suffer from bias. We develop a methodology, called Sayer, that leverages implicit feedback to evaluate and train new system policies. Sayer builds on two ideas from reinforcement learning -- randomized exploration and unbiased counterfactual estimators -- to leverage data collected by an existing policy to estimate the performance of new candidate policies, without actually deploying those policies. Sayer uses implicit exploration and implicit data augmentation to generate implicit feedback in an unbiased form, which is then used by an implicit counterfactual estimator to evaluate and train new policies. The key idea underlying these techniques is to assign implicit probabilities to decisions that are not actually taken but whose feedback can be inferred; these probabilities are carefully calculated to ensure statistical unbiasedness. We apply Sayer to two production scenarios in Azure, and show that it can evaluate arbitrary policies accurately, and train new policies that outperform the production policies.

The Connection between Out-of-Distribution Generalization and Privacy of ML Models

With the goal of generalizing to out-of-distribution (OOD) data, recent domain generalization methods aim to learn "stable" feature representations whose effect on the output remains invariant across domains. Given the theoretical connection between generalization and privacy, we ask whether better OOD generalization leads to better privacy for machine learning models, where privacy is measured through robustness to membership inference (MI) attacks. In general, we find that the relationship does not hold. Through extensive evaluation on a synthetic dataset and image datasets like MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and Chest X-rays, we show that a lower OOD generalization gap does not imply better robustness to MI attacks. Instead, privacy benefits are based on the extent to which a model captures the stable features. A model that captures stable features is more robust to MI attacks than models that exhibit better OOD generalization but do not learn stable features. Further, for the same provable differential privacy guarantees, a model that learns stable features provides higher utility as compared to others. Our results offer the first extensive empirical study connecting stable features and privacy, and also have a takeaway for the domain generalization community; MI attack can be used as a complementary metric to measure model quality.

DoWhy: Addressing Challenges in Expressing and Validating Causal Assumptions

Estimation of causal effects involves crucial assumptions about the data-generating process, such as directionality of effect, presence of instrumental variables or mediators, and whether all relevant confounders are observed. Violation of any of these assumptions leads to significant error in the effect estimate. However, unlike cross-validation for predictive models, there is no global validator method for a causal estimate. As a result, expressing different causal assumptions formally and validating them (to the extent possible) becomes critical for any analysis. We present DoWhy, a framework that allows explicit declaration of assumptions through a causal graph and provides multiple validation tests to check a subset of these assumptions. Our experience with DoWhy highlights a number of open questions for future research: developing new ways beyond causal graphs to express assumptions, the role of causal discovery in learning relevant parts of the graph, and developing validation tests that can better detect errors, both for average and conditional treatment effects. DoWhy is available at https://github.com/microsoft/dowhy.

Noise2Fast: Fast Self-Supervised Single Image Blind Denoising

In the last several years deep learning based approaches have come to dominate many areas of computer vision, and image denoising is no exception. Neural networks can learn by example to map noisy images to clean images. However, access to noisy/clean or even noisy/noisy image pairs isn't always readily available in the desired domain. Recent approaches have allowed for the denoising of single noisy images without access to any training data aside from that very image. But since they require both training and inference to be carried out on each individual input image, these methods require significant computation time. As such, they are difficult to integrate into automated microscopy pipelines where denoising large datasets is essential but needs to be carried out in a timely manner. Here we present Noise2Fast, a fast single image blind denoiser. Our method is tailored for speed by training on a four-image dataset produced using a unique form of downsampling we refer to as "checkerboard downsampling". Noise2Fast is faster than all tested approaches and is more accurate than all except Self2Self, which takes well over 100 times longer to denoise an image. This allows for a combination of speed and flexibility that was not previously attainable using any other method.

Causally Constrained Data Synthesis for Private Data Release

Making evidence based decisions requires data. However for real-world applications, the privacy of data is critical. Using synthetic data which reflects certain statistical properties of the original data preserves the privacy of the original data. To this end, prior works utilize differentially private data release mechanisms to provide formal privacy guarantees. However, such mechanisms have unacceptable privacy vs. utility trade-offs. We propose incorporating causal information into the training process to favorably modify the aforementioned trade-off. We theoretically prove that generative models trained with additional causal knowledge provide stronger differential privacy guarantees. Empirically, we evaluate our solution comparing different models based on variational auto-encoders (VAEs), and show that causal information improves resilience to membership inference, with improvements in downstream utility.

Technology Readiness Levels for Machine Learning Systems

The development and deployment of machine learning (ML) systems can be executed easily with modern tools, but the process is typically rushed and means-to-an-end. The lack of diligence can lead to technical debt, scope creep and misaligned objectives, model misuse and failures, and expensive consequences. Engineering systems, on the other hand, follow well-defined processes and testing standards to streamline development for high-quality, reliable results. The extreme is spacecraft systems, where mission critical measures and robustness are ingrained in the development process. Drawing on experience in both spacecraft engineering and ML (from research through product across domain areas), we have developed a proven systems engineering approach for machine learning development and deployment. Our "Machine Learning Technology Readiness Levels" (MLTRL) framework defines a principled process to ensure robust, reliable, and responsible systems while being streamlined for ML workflows, including key distinctions from traditional software engineering. Even more, MLTRL defines a lingua franca for people across teams and organizations to work collaboratively on artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. Here we describe the framework and elucidate it with several real world use-cases of developing ML methods from basic research through productization and deployment, in areas such as medical diagnostics, consumer computer vision, satellite imagery, and particle physics.

The Importance of Modeling Data Missingness in Algorithmic Fairness: A Causal Perspective

Training datasets for machine learning often have some form of missingness. For example, to learn a model for deciding whom to give a loan, the available training data includes individuals who were given a loan in the past, but not those who were not. This missingness, if ignored, nullifies any fairness guarantee of the training procedure when the model is deployed. Using causal graphs, we characterize the missingness mechanisms in different real-world scenarios. We show conditions under which various distributions, used in popular fairness algorithms, can or can not be recovered from the training data. Our theoretical results imply that many of these algorithms can not guarantee fairness in practice. Modeling missingness also helps to identify correct design principles for fair algorithms. For example, in multi-stage settings where decisions are made in multiple screening rounds, we use our framework to derive the minimal distributions required to design a fair algorithm. Our proposed algorithm decentralizes the decision-making process and still achieves similar performance to the optimal algorithm that requires centralization and non-recoverable distributions.