Causal Inference Using LLM-Guided Discovery

At the core of causal inference lies the challenge of determining reliable causal graphs solely based on observational data. Since the well-known backdoor criterion depends on the graph, any errors in the graph can propagate downstream to effect inference. In this work, we initially show that complete graph information is not necessary for causal effect inference; the topological order over graph variables (causal order) alone suffices. Further, given a node pair, causal order is easier to elicit from domain experts compared to graph edges since determining the existence of an edge can depend extensively on other variables. Interestingly, we find that the same principle holds for Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3.5-turbo and GPT-4, motivating an automated method to obtain causal order (and hence causal effect) with LLMs acting as virtual domain experts. To this end, we employ different prompting strategies and contextual cues to propose a robust technique of obtaining causal order from LLMs. Acknowledging LLMs' limitations, we also study possible techniques to integrate LLMs with established causal discovery algorithms, including constraint-based and score-based methods, to enhance their performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves causal ordering accuracy as compared to discovery algorithms, highlighting the potential of LLMs to enhance causal inference across diverse fields.

Rethinking Counterfactual Data Augmentation Under Confounding

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Estimating Treatment Effects using Neurosymbolic Program Synthesis

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is a central problem in causal inference. Methods to solve this problem exploit inductive biases and heuristics from causal inference to design multi-head neural network architectures and regularizers. In this work, we propose to use neurosymbolic program synthesis, a data-efficient, and interpretable technique, to solve the treatment effect estimation problem. We theoretically show that neurosymbolic programming can solve the treatment effect estimation problem. By designing a Domain Specific Language (DSL) for treatment effect estimation problem based on the inductive biases used in literature, we argue that neurosymbolic programming is a better alternative to treatment effect estimation than traditional methods. Our empirical study reveals that our method, which implicitly encodes inductive biases in a DSL, achieves better performance on benchmark datasets than the state-of-the-art methods.

On Causally Disentangled Representations

Representation learners that disentangle factors of variation have already proven to be important in addressing various real world concerns such as fairness and interpretability. Initially consisting of unsupervised models with independence assumptions, more recently, weak supervision and correlated features have been explored, but without a causal view of the generative process. In contrast, we work under the regime of a causal generative process where generative factors are either independent or can be potentially confounded by a set of observed or unobserved confounders. We present an analysis of disentangled representations through the notion of disentangled causal process. We motivate the need for new metrics and datasets to study causal disentanglement and propose two evaluation metrics and a dataset. We show that our metrics capture the desiderata of disentangled causal process. Finally, we perform an empirical study on state of the art disentangled representation learners using our metrics and dataset to evaluate them from causal perspective.

Causal Regularization Using Domain Priors

Neural networks leverage both causal and correlation-based relationships in data to learn models that optimize a given performance criterion, such as classification accuracy. This results in learned models that may not necessarily reflect the true causal relationships between input and output. When domain priors of causal relationships are available at the time of training, it is essential that a neural network model maintains these relationships as causal, even as it learns to optimize the performance criterion. We propose a causal regularization method that can incorporate such causal domain priors into the network and which supports both direct and total causal effects. We show that this approach can generalize to various kinds of specifications of causal priors, including monotonicity of causal effect of a given input feature or removing a certain influence for purposes of fairness. Our experiments on eleven benchmark datasets show the usefulness of this approach in regularizing a learned neural network model to maintain desired causal effects. On most datasets, domain-prior consistent models can be obtained without compromising on accuracy.

Causality in Neural Networks -- An Extended Abstract

Causal reasoning is the main learning and explanation tool used by humans. AI systems should possess causal reasoning capabilities to be deployed in the real world with trust and reliability. Introducing the ideas of causality to machine learning helps in providing better learning and explainable models. Explainability, causal disentanglement are some important aspects of any machine learning model. Causal explanations are required to believe in a model's decision and causal disentanglement learning is important for transfer learning applications. We exploit the ideas of causality to be used in deep learning models to achieve better and causally explainable models that are useful in fairness, disentangled representation, etc.