On the Optimality of Sparse Model-Based Planning for Markov Decision Processes

This work considers the sample complexity of obtaining an $\epsilon$-optimal policy in a discounted Markov Decision Process (MDP), given only access to a generative model. In this model, the learner accesses the underlying transition model via a sampling oracle that provides a sample of the next state, when given any state-action pair as input. In this work, we study the effectiveness of the most natural plug-in approach to model-based planning: we build the maximum likelihood estimate of the transition model in the MDP from observations and then find an optimal policy in this empirical MDP. We ask arguably the most basic and unresolved question in model-based planning: is the na\"ive "plug-in" approach, non-asymptotically, minimax optimal in the quality of the policy it finds, given a fixed sample size? With access to a generative model, we resolve this question in the strongest possible sense: our main result shows that \emph{any} high accuracy solution in the plug-in model constructed with $N$ samples, provides an $\epsilon$-optimal policy in the true underlying MDP. In comparison, all prior (non-asymptotically) minimax optimal results use model-free approaches, such as the Variance Reduced Q-value iteration algorithm (Sidford et al 2018), while the best known model-based results (e.g. Azar et al 2013) require larger sample sample sizes in their dependence on the planning horizon or the state space. Notably, we show that the model-based approach allows the use of \emph{any} efficient planning algorithm in the empirical MDP, which simplifies the algorithm design as this approach does not tie the algorithm to the sampling procedure. The core of our analysis is a novel "absorbing MDP" construction to address the statistical dependency issues that arise in the analysis of model-based planning approaches, a construction which may be helpful more generally.

Bias Correction of Learned Generative Models using Likelihood-Free Importance Weighting

A learned generative model often produces biased statistics relative to the underlying data distribution. A standard technique to correct this bias is importance sampling, where samples from the model are weighted by the likelihood ratio under model and true distributions. When the likelihood ratio is unknown, it can be estimated by training a probabilistic classifier to distinguish samples from the two distributions. In this paper, we employ this likelihood-free importance weighting framework to correct for the bias in state-of-the-art deep generative models. We find that this technique consistently improves standard goodness-of-fit metrics for evaluating the sample quality of state-of-the-art generative models, suggesting reduced bias. Finally, we demonstrate its utility on representative applications in a) data augmentation for classification using generative adversarial networks, and b) model-based policy evaluation using off-policy data.

Deep Batch Active Learning by Diverse, Uncertain Gradient Lower Bounds

We design a new algorithm for batch active learning with deep neural network models. Our algorithm, Batch Active learning by Diverse Gradient Embeddings (BADGE), samples groups of points that are disparate and high-magnitude when represented in a hallucinated gradient space, a strategy designed to incorporate both predictive uncertainty and sample diversity into every selected batch. Crucially, BADGE trades off between diversity and uncertainty without requiring any hand-tuned hyperparameters. We show that while other approaches sometimes succeed for particular batch sizes or architectures, BADGE consistently performs as well or better, making it a versatile option for practical active learning problems.

Fair Regression: Quantitative Definitions and Reduction-based Algorithms

In this paper, we study the prediction of a real-valued target, such as a risk score or recidivism rate, while guaranteeing a quantitative notion of fairness with respect to a protected attribute such as gender or race. We call this class of problems \emph{fair regression}. We propose general schemes for fair regression under two notions of fairness: (1) statistical parity, which asks that the prediction be statistically independent of the protected attribute, and (2) bounded group loss, which asks that the prediction error restricted to any protected group remain below some pre-determined level. While we only study these two notions of fairness, our schemes are applicable to arbitrary Lipschitz-continuous losses, and so they encompass least-squares regression, logistic regression, quantile regression, and many other tasks. Our schemes only require access to standard risk minimization algorithms (such as standard classification or least-squares regression) while providing theoretical guarantees on the optimality and fairness of the obtained solutions. In addition to analyzing theoretical properties of our schemes, we empirically demonstrate their ability to uncover fairness--accuracy frontiers on several standard datasets.

Metareasoning in Modular Software Systems: On-the-Fly Configuration using Reinforcement Learning with Rich Contextual Representations

Assemblies of modular subsystems are being pressed into service to perform sensing, reasoning, and decision making in high-stakes, time-critical tasks in such areas as transportation, healthcare, and industrial automation. We address the opportunity to maximize the utility of an overall computing system by employing reinforcement learning to guide the configuration of the set of interacting modules that comprise the system. The challenge of doing system-wide optimization is a combinatorial problem. Local attempts to boost the performance of a specific module by modifying its configuration often leads to losses in overall utility of the system's performance as the distribution of inputs to downstream modules changes drastically. We present metareasoning techniques which consider a rich representation of the input, monitor the state of the entire pipeline, and adjust the configuration of modules on-the-fly so as to maximize the utility of a system's operation. We show significant improvement in both real-world and synthetic pipelines across a variety of reinforcement learning techniques.

Off-Policy Policy Gradient with State Distribution Correction

We study the problem of off-policy policy optimization in Markov decision processes, and develop a novel off-policy policy gradient method. Prior off-policy policy gradient approaches have generally ignored the mismatch between the distribution of states visited under the behavior policy used to collect data, and what would be the distribution of states under the learned policy. Here we build on recent progress for estimating the ratio of the Markov chain stationary distribution of states in policy evaluation, and presentan off-policy policy gradient optimization technique that can account for this mismatch in distributions.We present an illustrative example of why this is important, theoretical convergence guarantee for our approach and empirical simulations that highlight the benefits of correcting this distribution mismatch.

Provably efficient RL with Rich Observations via Latent State Decoding

We study the exploration problem in episodic MDPs with rich observations generated from a small number of latent states. Under certain identifiability assumptions, we demonstrate how to estimate a mapping from the observations to latent states inductively through a sequence of regression and clustering steps---where previously decoded latent states provide labels for later regression problems---and use it to construct good exploration policies. We provide finite-sample guarantees on the quality of the learned state decoding function and exploration policies, and complement our theory with an empirical evaluation on a class of hard exploration problems. Our method exponentially improves over $Q$-learning with na\"ive exploration, even when $Q$-learning has cheating access to latent states.

Warm-starting Contextual Bandits: Robustly Combining Supervised and Bandit Feedback

We investigate the feasibility of learning from both fully-labeled supervised data and contextual bandit data. We specifically consider settings in which the underlying learning signal may be different between these two data sources. Theoretically, we state and prove no-regret algorithms for learning that is robust to divergences between the two sources. Empirically, we evaluate some of these algorithms on a large selection of datasets, showing that our approaches are feasible, and helpful in practice.

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning in Contextual Decision Processes

We study the sample complexity of model-based reinforcement learning in general contextual decision processes. We design new algorithms for RL with an abstract model class and analyze their statistical properties. Our algorithms have sample complexity governed by a new structural parameter called the witness rank, which we show to be small in several settings of interest, including Factored MDPs and reactive POMDPs. We also show that the witness rank of a problem is never larger than the recently proposed Bellman rank parameter governing the sample complexity of the model-free algorithm OLIVE (Jiang et al., 2017), the only other provably sample efficient algorithm at this level of generality. Focusing on the special case of Factored MDPs, we prove an exponential lower bound for all model-free approaches, including OLIVE, which when combined with our algorithmic results demonstrates exponential separation between model-based and model-free RL in some rich-observation settings.