Reasoning or Overthinking: Evaluating Large Language Models on Financial Sentiment Analysis

We investigate the effectiveness of large language models (LLMs), including reasoning-based and non-reasoning models, in performing zero-shot financial sentiment analysis. Using the Financial PhraseBank dataset annotated by domain experts, we evaluate how various LLMs and prompting strategies align with human-labeled sentiment in a financial context. We compare three proprietary LLMs (GPT-4o, GPT-4.1, o3-mini) under different prompting paradigms that simulate System 1 (fast and intuitive) or System 2 (slow and deliberate) thinking and benchmark them against two smaller models (FinBERT-Prosus, FinBERT-Tone) fine-tuned on financial sentiment analysis. Our findings suggest that reasoning, either through prompting or inherent model design, does not improve performance on this task. Surprisingly, the most accurate and human-aligned combination of model and method was GPT-4o without any Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. We further explore how performance is impacted by linguistic complexity and annotation agreement levels, uncovering that reasoning may introduce overthinking, leading to suboptimal predictions. This suggests that for financial sentiment classification, fast, intuitive "System 1"-like thinking aligns more closely with human judgment compared to "System 2"-style slower, deliberative reasoning simulated by reasoning models or CoT prompting. Our results challenge the default assumption that more reasoning always leads to better LLM decisions, particularly in high-stakes financial applications.

Analyzing Emotions in Bangla Social Media Comments Using Machine Learning and LIME

Research on understanding emotions in written language continues to expand, especially for understudied languages with distinctive regional expressions and cultural features, such as Bangla. This study examines emotion analysis using 22,698 social media comments from the EmoNoBa dataset. For language analysis, we employ machine learning models: Linear SVM, KNN, and Random Forest with n-gram data from a TF-IDF vectorizer. We additionally investigated how PCA affects the reduction of dimensionality. Moreover, we utilized a BiLSTM model and AdaBoost to improve decision trees. To make our machine learning models easier to understand, we used LIME to explain the predictions of the AdaBoost classifier, which uses decision trees. With the goal of advancing sentiment analysis in languages with limited resources, our work examines various techniques to find efficient techniques for emotion identification in Bangla.

How do datasets, developers, and models affect biases in a low-resourced language?

Sociotechnical systems, such as language technologies, frequently exhibit identity-based biases. These biases exacerbate the experiences of historically marginalized communities and remain understudied in low-resource contexts. While models and datasets specific to a language or with multilingual support are commonly recommended to address these biases, this paper empirically tests the effectiveness of such approaches in the context of gender, religion, and nationality-based identities in Bengali, a widely spoken but low-resourced language. We conducted an algorithmic audit of sentiment analysis models built on mBERT and BanglaBERT, which were fine-tuned using all Bengali sentiment analysis (BSA) datasets from Google Dataset Search. Our analyses showed that BSA models exhibit biases across different identity categories despite having similar semantic content and structure. We also examined the inconsistencies and uncertainties arising from combining pre-trained models and datasets created by individuals from diverse demographic backgrounds. We connected these findings to the broader discussions on epistemic injustice, AI alignment, and methodological decisions in algorithmic audits.

Advancing Exchange Rate Forecasting: Leveraging Machine Learning and AI for Enhanced Accuracy in Global Financial Markets

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical USD/BDT exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023, sourced from Yahoo Finance, to develop advanced machine learning models for accurate forecasting. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 99.449%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9858, and a test loss of 0.8523, significantly outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA (RMSE 1.342). Additionally, a Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) is applied for directional prediction, with backtesting on a $10,000 initial capital revealing a 40.82% profitable trade rate, though resulting in a net loss of $20,653.25 over 49 trades. The study analyzes historical trends, showing a decline in BDT/USD rates from 0.012 to 0.009, and incorporates normalized daily returns to capture volatility. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in forex forecasting, offering traders and policymakers robust tools to mitigate risks. Future work could integrate sentiment analysis and real-time economic indicators to further enhance model adaptability in volatile markets.

Winning and losing with Artificial Intelligence: What public discourse about ChatGPT tells us about how societies make sense of technological change

Public product launches in Artificial Intelligence can serve as focusing events for collective attention, surfacing how societies react to technological change. Social media provide a window into the sensemaking around these events, surfacing hopes and fears and showing who chooses to engage in the discourse and when. We demonstrate that public sensemaking about AI is shaped by economic interests and cultural values of those involved. We analyze 3.8 million tweets posted by 1.6 million users across 117 countries in response to the public launch of ChatGPT in 2022. Our analysis shows how economic self-interest, proxied by occupational skill types in writing, programming, and mathematics, and national cultural orientations, as measured by Hofstede's individualism, uncertainty avoidance, and power distance dimensions, shape who speaks, when they speak, and their stance towards ChatGPT. Roles requiring more technical skills, such as programming and mathematics, tend to engage earlier and express more positive stances, whereas writing-centric occupations join later with greater skepticism. At the cultural level, individualism predicts both earlier engagement and a more negative stance, and uncertainty avoidance reduces the prevalence of positive stances but does not delay when users first engage with ChatGPT. Aggregate sentiment trends mask the dynamics observed in our study. The shift toward a more critical stance towards ChatGPT over time stems primarily from the entry of more skeptical voices rather than a change of heart among early adopters. Our findings underscore the importance of both the occupational background and cultural context in understanding public reactions to AI.

AraReasoner: Evaluating Reasoning-Based LLMs for Arabic NLP

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress in reasoning abilities and general natural language processing (NLP) tasks, yet their performance on Arabic data, characterized by rich morphology, diverse dialects, and complex script, remains underexplored. This paper presents a comprehensive benchmarking study of multiple reasoning-focused LLMs, with a special emphasis on the newly introduced DeepSeek models, across a suite of fifteen Arabic NLP tasks. We experiment with various strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning. This allows us to systematically evaluate performance on datasets covering a range of applications to examine their capacity for linguistic reasoning under different levels of complexity. Our experiments reveal several key findings. First, carefully selecting just three in-context examples delivers an average uplift of over 13 F1 points on classification tasks-boosting sentiment analysis from 35.3% to 87.5% and paraphrase detection from 56.1% to 87.0%. Second, reasoning-focused DeepSeek architectures outperform a strong GPT o4-mini baseline by an average of 12 F1 points on complex inference tasks in the zero-shot setting. Third, LoRA-based fine-tuning yields up to an additional 8 points in F1 and BLEU compared to equivalent increases in model scale. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/AraReasoner41299

CAtCh: Cognitive Assessment through Cookie Thief

Several machine learning algorithms have been developed for the prediction of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia (ADRD) from spontaneous speech. However, none of these algorithms have been translated for the prediction of broader cognitive impairment (CI), which in some cases is a precursor and risk factor of ADRD. In this paper, we evaluated several speech-based open-source methods originally proposed for the prediction of ADRD, as well as methods from multimodal sentiment analysis for the task of predicting CI from patient audio recordings. Results demonstrated that multimodal methods outperformed unimodal ones for CI prediction, and that acoustics-based approaches performed better than linguistics-based ones. Specifically, interpretable acoustic features relating to affect and prosody were found to significantly outperform BERT-based linguistic features and interpretable linguistic features, respectively. All the code developed for this study is available at https://github.com/JTColonel/catch.

Representation Decomposition for Learning Similarity and Contrastness Across Modalities for Affective Computing

Multi-modal affective computing aims to automatically recognize and interpret human attitudes from diverse data sources such as images and text, thereby enhancing human-computer interaction and emotion understanding. Existing approaches typically rely on unimodal analysis or straightforward fusion of cross-modal information that fail to capture complex and conflicting evidence presented across different modalities. In this paper, we propose a novel LLM-based approach for affective computing that explicitly deconstructs visual and textual representations into shared (modality-invariant) and modality-specific components. Specifically, our approach firstly encodes and aligns input modalities using pre-trained multi-modal encoders, then employs a representation decomposition framework to separate common emotional content from unique cues, and finally integrates these decomposed signals via an attention mechanism to form a dynamic soft prompt for a multi-modal LLM. Extensive experiments on three representative tasks for affective computing, namely, multi-modal aspect-based sentiment analysis, multi-modal emotion analysis, and hateful meme detection, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which consistently outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art models.

Cultural Bias Matters: A Cross-Cultural Benchmark Dataset and Sentiment-Enriched Model for Understanding Multimodal Metaphors

Metaphors are pervasive in communication, making them crucial for natural language processing (NLP). Previous research on automatic metaphor processing predominantly relies on training data consisting of English samples, which often reflect Western European or North American biases. This cultural skew can lead to an overestimation of model performance and contributions to NLP progress. However, the impact of cultural bias on metaphor processing, particularly in multimodal contexts, remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce MultiMM, a Multicultural Multimodal Metaphor dataset designed for cross-cultural studies of metaphor in Chinese and English. MultiMM consists of 8,461 text-image advertisement pairs, each accompanied by fine-grained annotations, providing a deeper understanding of multimodal metaphors beyond a single cultural domain. Additionally, we propose Sentiment-Enriched Metaphor Detection (SEMD), a baseline model that integrates sentiment embeddings to enhance metaphor comprehension across cultural backgrounds. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of SEMD on metaphor detection and sentiment analysis tasks. We hope this work increases awareness of cultural bias in NLP research and contributes to the development of fairer and more inclusive language models. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/DUTIR-YSQ/MultiMM.

Quantifying Fairness in LLMs Beyond Tokens: A Semantic and Statistical Perspective

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate responses with inherent biases, undermining their reliability in real-world applications. Existing evaluation methods often overlook biases in long-form responses and the intrinsic variability of LLM outputs. To address these challenges, we propose FiSCo(Fine-grained Semantic Computation), a novel statistical framework to evaluate group-level fairness in LLMs by detecting subtle semantic differences in long-form responses across demographic groups. Unlike prior work focusing on sentiment or token-level comparisons, FiSCo goes beyond surface-level analysis by operating at the claim level, leveraging entailment checks to assess the consistency of meaning across responses. We decompose model outputs into semantically distinct claims and apply statistical hypothesis testing to compare inter- and intra-group similarities, enabling robust detection of subtle biases. We formalize a new group counterfactual fairness definition and validate FiSCo on both synthetic and human-annotated datasets spanning gender, race, and age. Experiments show that FiSco more reliably identifies nuanced biases while reducing the impact of stochastic LLM variability, outperforming various evaluation metrics.