Compact Latent Manifold Translation: A Parameter-Efficient Foundation Model for Cross-Modal and Cross-Frequency Physiological Signal Synthesis

The analysis of physiological time series, such as electrocardiograms (ECG) and photoplethysmograms (PPG), is persistently hindered by modality and frequency gaps stemming from heterogeneous recording devices. Existing foundation models typically rely on continuous latent spaces, which frequently suffer from severe modality entanglement, lack high-fidelity cross-frequency generative capacity, and impose high computational costs that prohibit edge-device deployment. In this paper, we propose Compact Latent Manifold Translation (CLMT), a highly parameter-efficient (0.09B) unified framework that bridges these gaps through a novel two-stage discrete translation paradigm. First, we introduce a Universal Tokenizer utilizing Hierarchical Residual Vector Quantization (RVQ) to decouple heterogeneous signals into isolated, well-structured discrete latent manifolds, effectively preventing inter-modality interference. Second, a Context-Prompted Latent Translator maps these discrete tokens across modalities by integrating static physiological priors, reframing complex signal synthesis as a pure latent sequence translation task. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our 0.09B model significantly outperforms massive baselines. In cross-modal PPG-to-ECG synthesis, it resolves temporal phase drift and dramatically improves the clinical R-peak detection F1-score from 0.37 (baseline) to 0.83. Furthermore, in extreme cross-frequency super-resolution (25Hz to 100Hz), it successfully recovers high-frequency diagnostic landmarks, achieving an unprecedented Pearson correlation of 0.9956. By learning a universal discrete language for biological signals with a fraction of the computational footprint, our approach sets a new trajectory for edge-deployable, multi-modal medical foundation models.

Latent Laplace Diffusion for Irregular Multivariate Time Series

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion.

QLIF-CAST: Quantum Leaky-Integrate-and-Fire for Time-Series Weather Forecasting

Accurate and efficient time-series forecasting remains a challenging problem for both classical and quantum neural architectures, particularly in multivariate environmental settings. This work adapts the Quantum Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (QLIF) spiking neural network for time-series regression tasks, specifically short-term multivariate weather forecasting. We extend QLIF beyond classification and demonstrate its applicability to continuous-valued prediction problems. The QLIF-CAST model encodes neuron excitation states as single-qubit quantum superpositions, driven by Rx rotation gates and T1 relaxation decay, and is embedded within a hybrid quantum-classical recurrent architecture. We conduct two distinct evaluations. First, a controlled comparison against a parameter-matched classical LIF baseline on a multivariate weather dataset shows that QLIF-CAST achieves 15.4% lower MSE and 4.4% lower MAE, demonstrating that quantum neuronal dynamics reduce prediction error over classical equivalents. Second, a cross-domain comparative analysis with state-of-the-art quantum LSTM (QLSTM) and quantum neural network (QNN) models on air quality and wind speed benchmarks reveals that QLIF-CAST converges in up to 94% less training time, occupying a distinct position in the speed-error trade-off space. Hardware verification on IBM Marrakesh (156-qubit QPU) confirms reliable circuit execution with only 1.2% average deviation from simulation.

Grid-Orch: An LLM-Powered Orchestrator for Distribution Grid Simulation and Analytics

The power distribution engineering workforce faces a projected shortage of up to 1.5 million engineers by 2030, creating urgent demand for more accessible analysis tools. This paper introduces Grid-Orch, a framework that bridges Large Language Models (LLMs) and power system simulation through the Model Context Protocol (MCP), enabling engineers to perform complex distribution analyses via natural language. Using OpenDSS as the reference implementation, Grid-Orch provides 36 domain-specific tools across eleven categories, covering power flow, voltage analysis, quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation, and automated optimization. A provider-agnostic LLM layer supports both cloud-hosted (Gemini, Claude) and locally deployed (Ollama, llama-cpp) models, enabling air-gapped operation for security-sensitive utility environments. Three optimization skills, capacitor placement, voltage violation analysis, and overvoltage mitigation, extend the platform beyond single-tool queries to multi-step engineering workflows. Grid-Orch is delivered as an interactive web platform with chat-based interaction, a QSTS dashboard, and feeder topology visualization, and renders simulation results inline. Workflow demonstrations show that distribution analyses formerly requiring hours of scripting, such as distributed energy resource (DER) interconnection screening, complete in under two minutes through natural language, producing numerically identical results to direct OpenDSS scripting.

The Newsworthiness of Brazilian Distress: A Peak Analysis on Time Series of International Media Attention to Disasters in Brazil

Media coverage influences disaster response, yet the drivers of international media attention to local events remain unevenly understood. Brazil offers a compelling case: some of its natural and technological disasters occasionally hit the international headlines. However, systematic analyses of what makes these events be discussed abroad are still missing. Addressing this gap requires representative, validated and country-specific news datasets. This paper presents a peak analysis of 2k news about Brazilian fires and landslides in German newspapers from 2000 to 2024. Using time series segmentation to detect news event peaks, we examine the extent to which they can be temporally aligned with observations in national and global disaster databases.

Capabilities of Auto-encoders and Principal Component Analysis of the Reduction of Microstructural Images; Application on the Acceleration of Phase-Field Simulations

In this work, a data-driven framework based on Phase-Field simulations data is proposed to highlight the capabilities of neural networks to ensure accurate low dimensionality reduction of simulated microstructural images and to provide time-series analysis. The dataset was indeed constructed from high-fidelity Phase-Field simulations. Analyses demonstrated that the association of auto-encoder neural networks and principal component analyses leads to ensure efficient and significant dimensionality reduction: 1/196 of reduction ratio with more than 80% of accuracy. These findings give insight to apply analyses on data from the latent dimension. Application of Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks showed the possibility of making next frame predictions; that makes possible the acceleration of Phase-Field simulation without the need of high computing resources. We discussed the application of such a framework on various areas of research. Different methods are proposed from the conducted analyses, in order to ensure dimensionality reduction, including auto-encoders, principal component analysis and Artificial Neural Networks, and time-series analysis, including LSTM and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU).

Yield Curve Forecasting using Machine Learning and Econometrics: A Comparative Analysis

While machine learning has revolutionized many fields such as natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision, its impact on time-series forecasting is still widely disputed, especially in the finance domain. This paper compares forecasting performance on U.S. Treasury yield curve data across econometrics/time-series analysis, classical machine learning, and deep learning methods, using daily data over 47 years. The Treasury yield curve is important because it is widely used by every participant in the bond markets, which are larger than equity markets. We examine a variety of methods that have not been tested on yield curve forecasting, especially deep learning algorithms. The algorithms include the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and its extensions, naive benchmarks, ensemble methods, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and multiple transformers built for forecasting. ARIMA and naive econometric models outperform other models overall, except in one time block. Of the machine learning methods, TimeGPT, LGBM and RNNs perform the best. Furthermore, the paper explores whether stationary or nonstationary data are more appropriate as input to deep learning models.

Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has created an urgent need to distinguish between human-written and LLM-generated text to ensure authenticity and societal trust. Existing detectors typically provide a binary classification for an entire passage; however, this is insufficient for human--LLM co-authored text, where the objective is to localize specific segments authored by humans or LLMs. To bridge this gap, we propose algorithms to segment text into human- and LLM-authored pieces. Our key observation is that such a segmentation task is conceptually similar to classical change point detection in time-series analysis. Leveraging this analogy, we adapt change point detection to LLM-generated text detection, develop a weighted algorithm and a generalized algorithm to accommodate heterogeneous detection score variability, and establish the minimax optimality of our procedure. Empirically, we demonstrate the strong performance of our approach against a wide range of existing baselines.

COTCAgent: Preventive Consultation via Probabilistic Chain-of-Thought Completion

As large language models empower healthcare, intelligent clinical decision support has developed rapidly. Longitudinal electronic health records (EHR) provide essential temporal evidence for accurate clinical diagnosis and analysis. However, current large language models have critical flaws in longitudinal EHR reasoning. First, lacking fine-grained statistical reasoning, they often hallucinate clinical trends and metrics when quantitative evidence is textually implied, biasing diagnostic inference. Second, non-uniform time series and scarce labels in longitudinal EHR hinder models from capturing long-range temporal dependencies, limiting reliable clinical reasoning. To address the above limitations, this work presents the Probabilistic Chain-of-Thought Completion Agent (COTCAgent), a hierarchical reasoning framework for longitudinal electronic health records. It consists of three core modules. The Temporal-Statistics Adapter (TSA) converts analytical plans into executable code for standardized trend output. The Chain-of-Thought Completion (COTC) layer leverages a symptom-trend-disease knowledge base with weighted scoring to evaluate disease risk, while the bounded completion module acquires structured evidence through standardized inquiries and iterative scoring constraints to ensure rigorous reasoning. By decoupling statistical computation, feature matching, and language generation, the framework eliminates reliance on complex multi-modal inputs and enables efficient longitudinal record analysis with lower computational overhead. Experimental results show that COTCAgent powered by Baichuan-M2 achieves 90.47% Top-1 accuracy on the self-built dataset and 70.41% on HealthBench, outperforming existing medical agents and mainstream large language models. The code is available at https://github.com/FrankDengAI/COTCAgent/.

Online Generalised Predictive Coding

This paper introduces an extension of generalised filtering for online applications. Generalised filtering refers to data assimilation schemes that jointly infer latent states, learn unknown model parameters, and estimate uncertainty in an integrated framework -- e.g., estimate state and observation noise -- at the same time (i.e., triple estimation). This framework appears across disciplines under different names, including variational Kalman-Bucy filtering in engineering, generalised predictive coding in neuroscience, and Dynamic Expectation Maximisation (DEM) in time-series analysis. Here, we specialise DEM for ``online'' data assimilation, through a separation of temporal scales. We describe the variational principles and procedures that allow one to assimilate data in a way that allows for a slow updating of parameters and precisions, which contextualise fast Bayesian belief updating about the dynamic hidden states. Using numerical studies, we demonstrate the validity of online DEM (ODEM) using a non-linear -- and potentially chaotic -- generative model, to show that the ODEM scheme can track the latent states of the generative process, even when its functional form differs fundamentally from the dynamics of the generative model. Framed from a neuro-mimetic predictive coding perspective, ODEM offers a biologically inspired solution to online inference, learning, and uncertainty estimation in dynamic environments.