A Regime-Aware Fusion Framework for Time Series Classification

Kernel-based methods such as Rocket are among the most effective default approaches for univariate time series classification (TSC), yet they do not perform equally well across all datasets. We revisit the long-standing intuition that different representations capture complementary structure and show that selectively fusing them can yield consistent improvements over Rocket on specific, systematically identifiable kinds of datasets. We introduce Fusion-3 (F3), a lightweight framework that adaptively fuses Rocket, Sax, and Sfa representations. To understand when fusion helps, we cluster UCR datasets into six groups using meta-features capturing series length, spectral structure, roughness, and class imbalance, and treat these clusters as interpretable data-structure regimes. Our analysis shows that fusion typically outperforms strong baselines in regimes with structured variability or rich frequency content, while offering diminishing returns in highly irregular or outlier-heavy settings. To support these findings, we combine three complementary analyses: non-parametric paired statistics across datasets, ablation studies isolating the roles of individual representations, and attribution via SHAP to identify which dataset properties predict fusion gains. Sample-level case studies further reveal the underlying mechanism: fusion primarily improves performance by rescuing specific errors, with adaptive increases in frequency-domain weighting precisely where corrections occur. Using 5-fold cross-validation on the 113 UCR datasets, F3 yields small but consistent average improvements over Rocket, supported by frequentist and Bayesian evidence and accompanied by clearly identifiable failure cases. Our results show that selectively applied fusion provides dependable and interpretable extension to strong kernel-based methods, correcting their weaknesses precisely where the data support it.

Near-real time fires detection using satellite imagery in Sudan conflict

The challenges of ongoing war in Sudan highlight the need for rapid monitoring and analysis of such conflicts. Advances in deep learning and readily available satellite remote sensing imagery allow for near real-time monitoring. This paper uses 4-band imagery from Planet Labs with a deep learning model to show that fire damage in armed conflicts can be monitored with minimal delay. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using five case studies in Sudan. We show that, compared to a baseline, the automated method captures the active fires and charred areas more accurately. Our results indicate that using 8-band imagery or time series of such imagery only result in marginal gains.

Investigating ECG Diagnosis with Ambiguous Labels using Partial Label Learning

Label ambiguity is an inherent problem in real-world electrocardiogram (ECG) diagnosis, arising from overlapping conditions and diagnostic disagreement. However, current ECG models are trained under the assumption of clean and non-ambiguous annotations, which limits both the development and the meaningful evaluation of models under real-world conditions. Although Partial Label Learning (PLL) frameworks are designed to learn from ambiguous labels, their effectiveness in medical time-series domains, ECG in particular, remains largely unexplored. In this work, we present the first systematic study of PLL methods for ECG diagnosis. We adapt nine PLL algorithms to multi-label ECG diagnosis and evaluate them using a diverse set of clinically motivated ambiguity generation strategies, capturing both unstructured (e.g., random) and structured ambiguities (e.g., cardiologist-derived similarities, treatment relationships, and diagnostic taxonomies). Our experiments on the PTB-XL and Chapman datasets demonstrate that PLL methods vary substantially in their robustness to different types and degrees of ambiguity. Through extensive analysis, we identify key limitations of current PLL approaches in clinical settings and outline future directions for developing robust and clinically aligned ambiguity-aware learning frameworks for ECG diagnosis.

HAROOD: A Benchmark for Out-of-distribution Generalization in Sensor-based Human Activity Recognition

Sensor-based human activity recognition (HAR) mines activity patterns from the time-series sensory data. In realistic scenarios, variations across individuals, devices, environments, and time introduce significant distributional shifts for the same activities. Recent efforts attempt to solve this challenge by applying or adapting existing out-of-distribution (OOD) algorithms, but only in certain distribution shift scenarios (e.g., cross-device or cross-position), lacking comprehensive insights on the effectiveness of these algorithms. For instance, is OOD necessary to HAR? Which OOD algorithm performs the best? In this paper, we fill this gap by proposing HAROOD, a comprehensive benchmark for HAR in OOD settings. We define 4 OOD scenarios: cross-person, cross-position, cross-dataset, and cross-time, and build a testbed covering 6 datasets, 16 comparative methods (implemented with CNN-based and Transformer-based architectures), and two model selection protocols. Then, we conduct extensive experiments and present several findings for future research, e.g., no single method consistently outperforms others, highlighting substantial opportunity for advancement. Our codebase is highly modular and easy to extend for new datasets, algorithms, comparisons, and analysis, with the hope to facilitate the research in OOD-based HAR. Our implementation is released and can be found at https://github.com/AIFrontierLab/HAROOD.

Optimal Look-back Horizon for Time Series Forecasting in Federated Learning

Selecting an appropriate look-back horizon remains a fundamental challenge in time series forecasting (TSF), particularly in the federated learning scenarios where data is decentralized, heterogeneous, and often non-independent. While recent work has explored horizon selection by preserving forecasting-relevant information in an intrinsic space, these approaches are primarily restricted to centralized and independently distributed settings. This paper presents a principled framework for adaptive horizon selection in federated time series forecasting through an intrinsic space formulation. We introduce a synthetic data generator (SDG) that captures essential temporal structures in client data, including autoregressive dependencies, seasonality, and trend, while incorporating client-specific heterogeneity. Building on this model, we define a transformation that maps time series windows into an intrinsic representation space with well-defined geometric and statistical properties. We then derive a decomposition of the forecasting loss into a Bayesian term, which reflects irreducible uncertainty, and an approximation term, which accounts for finite-sample effects and limited model capacity. Our analysis shows that while increasing the look-back horizon improves the identifiability of deterministic patterns, it also increases approximation error due to higher model complexity and reduced sample efficiency. We prove that the total forecasting loss is minimized at the smallest horizon where the irreducible loss starts to saturate, while the approximation loss continues to rise. This work provides a rigorous theoretical foundation for adaptive horizon selection for time series forecasting in federated learning.

SurvBench: A Standardised Preprocessing Pipeline for Multi-Modal Electronic Health Record Survival Analysis

Electronic health record (EHR) data present tremendous opportunities for advancing survival analysis through deep learning, yet reproducibility remains severely constrained by inconsistent preprocessing methodologies. We present SurvBench, a comprehensive, open-source preprocessing pipeline that transforms raw PhysioNet datasets into standardised, model-ready tensors for multi-modal survival analysis. SurvBench provides data loaders for three major critical care databases, MIMIC-IV, eICU, and MC-MED, supporting diverse modalities including time-series vitals, static demographics, ICD diagnosis codes, and radiology reports. The pipeline implements rigorous data quality controls, patient-level splitting to prevent data leakage, explicit missingness tracking, and standardised temporal aggregation. SurvBench handles both single-risk (e.g., in-hospital mortality) and competing-risks scenarios (e.g., multiple discharge outcomes). The outputs are compatible with pycox library packages and implementations of standard statistical and deep learning models. By providing reproducible, configuration-driven preprocessing with comprehensive documentation, SurvBench addresses the "preprocessing gap" that has hindered fair comparison of deep learning survival models, enabling researchers to focus on methodological innovation rather than data engineering.

Near-Real-Time InSAR Phase Estimation for Large-Scale Surface Displacement Monitoring

Operational near-real-time monitoring of Earth's surface deformation using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) requires processing algorithms that efficiently incorporate new acquisitions without reprocessing historical archives. We present sequential phase linking approach using compressed single-look-complex images (SLCs) capable of producing surface displacement estimates within hours of the time of a new acquisition. Our key algorithmic contribution is a mini-stack reference scheme that maintains phase consistency across processing batches without adjusting or re-estimating previous time steps, enabling straightforward operational deployment. We introduce online methods for persistent and distributed scatterer identification that adapt to temporal changes in surface properties through incremental amplitude statistics updates. The processing chain incorporates multiple complementary metrics for pixel quality that are reliable for small SLC stack sizes, and an L1-norm network inversion to limit propagation of unwrapping errors across the time series. We use our algorithm to produce OPERA Surface Displacement from Sentinel-1 product, the first continental-scale surface displacement product over North America. Validation against GPS measurements and InSAR residual analysis demonstrates millimeter-level agreement in velocity estimates in varying environmental conditions. We demonstrate our algorithm's capabilities with a successful recovery of meter-scale co-eruptive displacement at Kilauea volcano during the 2018 eruption, as well as detection of subtle uplift at Three Sisters volcano, Oregon- a challenging environment for C-band InSAR due to dense vegetation and seasonal snow. We have made all software available as open source libraries, providing a significant advancement to the open scientific community's ability to process large InSAR data sets in a cloud environment.

Enabling Predictive Maintenance in District Heating Substations: A Labelled Dataset and Fault Detection Evaluation Framework based on Service Data

Early detection of faults in district heating substations is imperative to reduce return temperatures and enhance efficiency. However, progress in this domain has been hindered by the limited availability of public, labelled datasets. We present an open source framework combining a service report validated public dataset, an evaluation method based on Accuracy, Reliability, and Earliness, and baseline results implemented with EnergyFaultDetector, an open source Python framework. The dataset contains time series of operational data from 93 substations across two manufacturers, annotated with a list of disturbances due to faults and maintenance actions, a set of normal-event examples and detailed fault metadata. We evaluate the EnergyFaultDetector using three metrics: Accuracy for recognising normal behaviour, an eventwise F Score for reliable fault detection with few false alarms, and Earliness for early detection. The framework also supports root cause analysis using ARCANA. We demonstrate three use cases to assist operators in interpreting anomalies and identifying underlying faults. The models achieve high normal-behaviour accuracy (0.98) and eventwise F-score (beta=0.5) of 0.83, detecting 60% of the faults in the dataset before the customer reports a problem, with an average lead time of 3.9 days. Integrating an open dataset, metrics, open source code, and baselines establishes a reproducible, fault centric benchmark with operationally meaningful evaluation, enabling consistent comparison and development of early fault detection and diagnosis methods for district heating substations.

Passive Dementia Screening via Facial Temporal Micro-Dynamics Analysis of In-the-Wild Talking-Head Video

We target passive dementia screening from short camera-facing talking head video, developing a facial temporal micro dynamics analysis for language free detection of early neuro cognitive change. This enables unscripted, in the wild video analysis at scale to capture natural facial behaviors, transferrable across devices, topics, and cultures without active intervention by clinicians or researchers during recording. Most existing resources prioritize speech or scripted interviews, limiting use outside clinics and coupling predictions to language and transcription. In contrast, we identify and analyze whether temporal facial kinematics, including blink dynamics, small mouth jaw motions, gaze variability, and subtle head adjustments, are sufficient for dementia screening without speech or text. By stabilizing facial signals, we convert these micro movements into interpretable facial microdynamic time series, smooth them, and summarize short windows into compact clip level statistics for screening. Each window is encoded by its activity mix (the relative share of motion across streams), thus the predictor analyzes the distribution of motion across streams rather than its magnitude, making per channel effects transparent. We also introduce YT DemTalk, a new dataset curated from publicly available, in the wild camera facing videos. It contains 300 clips (150 with self reported dementia, 150 controls) to test our model and offer a first benchmarking of the corpus. On YT DemTalk, ablations identify gaze lability and mouth/jaw dynamics as the most informative cues, and light weighted shallow classifiers could attain a dementia prediction performance of (AUROC) 0.953, 0.961 Average Precision (AP), 0.851 F1-score, and 0.857 accuracy.

Dynamic Anomaly Identification in Accounting Transactions via Multi-Head Self-Attention Networks

This study addresses the problem of dynamic anomaly detection in accounting transactions and proposes a real-time detection method based on a Transformer to tackle the challenges of hidden abnormal behaviors and high timeliness requirements in complex trading environments. The approach first models accounting transaction data by representing multi-dimensional records as time-series matrices and uses embedding layers and positional encoding to achieve low-dimensional mapping of inputs. A sequence modeling structure with multi-head self-attention is then constructed to capture global dependencies and aggregate features from multiple perspectives, thereby enhancing the ability to detect abnormal patterns. The network further integrates feed-forward layers and regularization strategies to achieve deep feature representation and accurate anomaly probability estimation. To validate the effectiveness of the method, extensive experiments were conducted on a public dataset, including comparative analysis, hyperparameter sensitivity tests, environmental sensitivity tests, and data sensitivity tests. Results show that the proposed method outperforms baseline models in AUC, F1-Score, Precision, and Recall, and maintains stable performance under different environmental conditions and data perturbations. These findings confirm the applicability and advantages of the Transformer-based framework for dynamic anomaly detection in accounting transactions and provide methodological support for intelligent financial risk control and auditing.