How Data Mixing Shapes In-Context Learning: Asymptotic Equivalence for Transformers with MLPs

Pretrained Transformers demonstrate remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities, enabling them to adapt to new tasks from demonstrations without parameter updates. However, theoretical studies often rely on simplified architectures (e.g., omitting MLPs), data models (e.g., linear regression with isotropic inputs), and single-source training, limiting their relevance to realistic settings. In this work, we study ICL in pretrained Transformers with nonlinear MLP heads on nonlinear tasks drawn from multiple data sources with heterogeneous input, task, and noise distributions. We analyze a model where the MLP comprises two layers, with the first layer trained via a single gradient step and the second layer fully optimized. Under high-dimensional asymptotics, we prove that such models are equivalent in ICL error to structured polynomial predictors, leveraging results from the theory of Gaussian universality and orthogonal polynomials. This equivalence reveals that nonlinear MLPs meaningfully enhance ICL performance, particularly on nonlinear tasks, compared to linear baselines. It also enables a precise analysis of data mixing effects: we identify key properties of high-quality data sources (low noise, structured covariances) and show that feature learning emerges only when the task covariance exhibits sufficient structure. These results are validated empirically across various activation functions, model sizes, and data distributions. Finally, we experiment with a real-world scenario involving multilingual sentiment analysis where each language is treated as a different source. Our experimental results for this case exemplify how our findings extend to real-world cases. Overall, our work advances the theoretical foundations of ICL in Transformers and provides actionable insight into the role of architecture and data in ICL.

Semantic Label Drift in Cross-Cultural Translation

Machine Translation (MT) is widely employed to address resource scarcity in low-resource languages by generating synthetic data from high-resource counterparts. While sentiment preservation in translation has long been studied, a critical but underexplored factor is the role of cultural alignment between source and target languages. In this paper, we hypothesize that semantic labels are drifted or altered during MT due to cultural divergence. Through a series of experiments across culturally sensitive and neutral domains, we establish three key findings: (1) MT systems, including modern Large Language Models (LLMs), induce label drift during translation, particularly in culturally sensitive domains; (2) unlike earlier statistical MT tools, LLMs encode cultural knowledge, and leveraging this knowledge can amplify label drift; and (3) cultural similarity or dissimilarity between source and target languages is a crucial determinant of label preservation. Our findings highlight that neglecting cultural factors in MT not only undermines label fidelity but also risks misinterpretation and cultural conflict in downstream applications.

GroupSHAP-Guided Integration of Financial News Keywords and Technical Indicators for Stock Price Prediction

Recent advances in finance-specific language models such as FinBERT have enabled the quantification of public sentiment into index-based measures, yet compressing diverse linguistic signals into single metrics overlooks contextual nuances and limits interpretability. To address this limitation, explainable AI techniques, particularly SHAP (SHapley Additive Explanations), have been employed to identify influential features. However, SHAP's computational cost grows exponentially with input features, making it impractical for large-scale text-based financial data. This study introduces a GRU-based forecasting framework enhanced with GroupSHAP, which quantifies contributions of semantically related keyword groups rather than individual tokens, substantially reducing computational burden while preserving interpretability. We employed FinBERT to embed news articles from 2015 to 2024, clustered them into coherent semantic groups, and applied GroupSHAP to measure each group's contribution to stock price movements. The resulting group-level SHAP variables across multiple topics were used as input features for the prediction model. Empirical results from one-day-ahead forecasting of the S&P 500 index throughout 2024 demonstrate that our approach achieves a 32.2% reduction in MAE and a 40.5% reduction in RMSE compared with benchmark models without the GroupSHAP mechanism. This research presents the first application of GroupSHAP in news-driven financial forecasting, showing that grouped sentiment representations simultaneously enhance interpretability and predictive performance.

\textsc{CantoNLU}: A benchmark for Cantonese natural language understanding

Cantonese, although spoken by millions, remains under-resourced due to policy and diglossia. To address this scarcity of evaluation frameworks for Cantonese, we introduce \textsc{\textbf{CantoNLU}}, a benchmark for Cantonese natural language understanding (NLU). This novel benchmark spans seven tasks covering syntax and semantics, including word sense disambiguation, linguistic acceptability judgment, language detection, natural language inference, sentiment analysis, part-of-speech tagging, and dependency parsing. In addition to the benchmark, we provide model baseline performance across a set of models: a Mandarin model without Cantonese training, two Cantonese-adapted models obtained by continual pre-training a Mandarin model on Cantonese text, and a monolingual Cantonese model trained from scratch. Results show that Cantonese-adapted models perform best overall, while monolingual models perform better on syntactic tasks. Mandarin models remain competitive in certain settings, indicating that direct transfer may be sufficient when Cantonese domain data is scarce. We release all datasets, code, and model weights to facilitate future research in Cantonese NLP.

News-Aware Direct Reinforcement Trading for Financial Markets

The financial market is known to be highly sensitive to news. Therefore, effectively incorporating news data into quantitative trading remains an important challenge. Existing approaches typically rely on manually designed rules and/or handcrafted features. In this work, we directly use the news sentiment scores derived from large language models, together with raw price and volume data, as observable inputs for reinforcement learning. These inputs are processed by sequence models such as recurrent neural networks or Transformers to make end-to-end trading decisions. We conduct experiments using the cryptocurrency market as an example and evaluate two representative reinforcement learning algorithms, namely Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). The results demonstrate that our news-aware approach, which does not depend on handcrafted features or manually designed rules, can achieve performance superior to market benchmarks. We further highlight the critical role of time-series information in this process.

CLiVR: Conversational Learning System in Virtual Reality with AI-Powered Patients

Simulations constitute a fundamental component of medical and nursing education and traditionally employ standardized patients (SP) and high-fidelity manikins to develop clinical reasoning and communication skills. However, these methods require substantial resources, limiting accessibility and scalability. In this study, we introduce CLiVR, a Conversational Learning system in Virtual Reality that integrates large language models (LLMs), speech processing, and 3D avatars to simulate realistic doctor-patient interactions. Developed in Unity and deployed on the Meta Quest 3 platform, CLiVR enables trainees to engage in natural dialogue with virtual patients. Each simulation is dynamically generated from a syndrome-symptom database and enhanced with sentiment analysis to provide feedback on communication tone. Through an expert user study involving medical school faculty (n=13), we assessed usability, realism, and perceived educational impact. Results demonstrated strong user acceptance, high confidence in educational potential, and valuable feedback for improvement. CLiVR offers a scalable, immersive supplement to SP-based training.

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Risk:A Machine Learning Approach

We introduce a novel high-frequency daily panel dataset of both markets and news-based indicators -- including Geopolitical Risk, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trade Policy Uncertainty, and Political Sentiment -- for 42 countries across both emerging and developed markets. Using this dataset, we study how sentiment dynamics shape sovereign risk, measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, and evaluate their forecasting value relative to traditional drivers such as global monetary policy and market volatility. Our horse-race analysis of forecasting models demonstrates that incorporating news-based indicators significantly enhances predictive accuracy and enriches the analysis, with non-linear machine learning methods -- particularly Random Forests -- delivering the largest gains. Our analysis reveals that while global financial variables remain the dominant drivers of sovereign risk, geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty also play a meaningful role. Crucially, their effects are amplified through non-linear interactions with global financial conditions. Finally, we document pronounced regional heterogeneity, as certain asset classes and emerging markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to shocks in policy rates, global financial volatility, and geopolitical risk.

An Adaptive Multi Agent Bitcoin Trading System

This paper presents a Multi Agent Bitcoin Trading system that utilizes Large Lan- guage Models (LLMs) for alpha generation and portfolio management in the cryptocur- rencies market. Unlike equities, cryptocurrencies exhibit extreme volatility and are heavily influenced by rapidly shifting market sentiments and regulatory announcements, making them difficult to model using static regression models or neural networks trained solely on historical data [53]. The proposed framework overcomes this by structuring LLMs into specialised agents for technical analysis, sentiment evaluation, decision-making, and performance reflection. The system improves over time through a novel verbal feedback mechanism where a Reflect agent provides daily and weekly natural-language critiques of trading decisions. These textual evaluations are then injected into future prompts, al- lowing the system to adjust indicator priorities, sentiment weights, and allocation logic without parameter updates or finetuning. Back-testing on Bitcoin price data from July 2024 to April 2025 shows consistent outperformance across market regimes: the Quantita- tive agent delivered over 30% higher returns in bullish phases and 15% overall gains versus buy-and-hold, while the sentiment-driven agent turned sideways markets from a small loss into a gain of over 100%. Adding weekly feedback further improved total performance by 31% and reduced bearish losses by 10%. The results demonstrate that verbal feedback represents a new, scalable, and low-cost method of tuning LLMs for financial goals.

COLE: a Comprehensive Benchmark for French Language Understanding Evaluation

To address the need for a more comprehensive evaluation of French Natural Language Understanding (NLU), we introduce COLE, a new benchmark composed of 23 diverse task covering a broad range of NLU capabilities, including sentiment analysis, paraphrase detection, grammatical judgment, and reasoning, with a particular focus on linguistic phenomena relevant to the French language. We benchmark 94 large language models (LLM), providing an extensive analysis of the current state of French NLU. Our results highlight a significant performance gap between closed- and open-weights models and identify key challenging frontiers for current LLMs, such as zero-shot extractive question-answering (QA), fine-grained word sense disambiguation, and understanding of regional language variations. We release COLE as a public resource to foster further progress in French language modelling.

From News to Returns: A Granger-Causal Hypergraph Transformer on the Sphere

We propose the Causal Sphere Hypergraph Transformer (CSHT), a novel architecture for interpretable financial time-series forecasting that unifies \emph{Granger-causal hypergraph structure}, \emph{Riemannian geometry}, and \emph{causally masked Transformer attention}. CSHT models the directional influence of financial news and sentiment on asset returns by extracting multivariate Granger-causal dependencies, which are encoded as directional hyperedges on the surface of a hypersphere. Attention is constrained via angular masks that preserve both temporal directionality and geometric consistency. Evaluated on S\&P 500 data from 2018 to 2023, including the 2020 COVID-19 shock, CSHT consistently outperforms baselines across return prediction, regime classification, and top-asset ranking tasks. By enforcing predictive causal structure and embedding variables in a Riemannian manifold, CSHT delivers both \emph{robust generalisation across market regimes} and \emph{transparent attribution pathways} from macroeconomic events to stock-level responses. These results suggest that CSHT is a principled and practical solution for trustworthy financial forecasting under uncertainty.