Data Value in the Age of Scaling: Understanding LLM Scaling Dynamics Under Real-Synthetic Data Mixtures

The rapid progress of large language models (LLMs) is fueled by the growing reliance on datasets that blend real and synthetic data. While synthetic data offers scalability and cost-efficiency, it often introduces systematic distributional discrepancies, particularly underrepresenting long-tail knowledge due to truncation effects from data generation mechanisms like top-p sampling, temperature scaling, and finite sampling. These discrepancies pose fundamental challenges in characterizing and evaluating the utility of mixed real-synthetic datasets. In this paper, we identify a three-phase scaling behavior characterized by two breakpoints that reflect transitions in model behavior across learning head and tail knowledge. We further derive an LLM generalization bound designed for real and synthetic mixtures, revealing several key factors that govern their generalization performance. Building on our theoretical findings, we propose an effective yet efficient data valuation method that scales to large-scale datasets. Comprehensive experiments across four tasks, including image classification, sentiment classification, instruction following, and complex reasoning, demonstrate that our method surpasses state-of-the-art baselines in data valuation with significantly low computational cost.

Aspect-Level Obfuscated Sentiment in Thai Financial Disclosures and Its Impact on Abnormal Returns

Understanding sentiment in financial documents is crucial for gaining insights into market behavior. These reports often contain obfuscated language designed to present a positive or neutral outlook, even when underlying conditions may be less favorable. This paper presents a novel approach using Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) to decode obfuscated sentiment in Thai financial annual reports. We develop specific guidelines for annotating obfuscated sentiment in these texts and annotate more than one hundred financial reports. We then benchmark various text classification models on this annotated dataset, demonstrating strong performance in sentiment classification. Additionally, we conduct an event study to evaluate the real-world implications of our sentiment analysis on stock prices. Our results suggest that market reactions are selectively influenced by specific aspects within the reports. Our findings underscore the complexity of sentiment analysis in financial texts and highlight the importance of addressing obfuscated language to accurately assess market sentiment.

Opinion Mining and Analysis Using Hybrid Deep Neural Networks

Understanding customer attitudes has become a critical component of decision-making due to the growing influence of social media and e-commerce. Text-based opinions are the most structured, hence playing an important role in sentiment analysis. Most of the existing methods, which include lexicon-based approaches and traditional machine learning techniques, are insufficient for handling contextual nuances and scalability. While the latter has limitations in model performance and generalization, deep learning (DL) has achieved improvement, especially on semantic relationship capturing with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). The aim of the study is to enhance opinion mining by introducing a hybrid deep neural network model that combines a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BGRU) and long short-term memory (LSTM) layers to improve sentiment analysis, particularly addressing challenges such as contextual nuance, scalability, and class imbalance. To substantiate the efficacy of the proposed model, we conducted comprehensive experiments utilizing benchmark datasets, encompassing IMDB movie critiques and Amazon product evaluations. The introduced hybrid BGRULSTM (HBGRU-LSTM) architecture attained a testing accuracy of 95%, exceeding the performance of traditional DL frameworks such as LSTM (93.06%), CNN+LSTM (93.31%), and GRU+LSTM (92.20%). Moreover, our model exhibited a noteworthy enhancement in recall for negative sentiments, escalating from 86% (unbalanced dataset) to 96% (balanced dataset), thereby ensuring a more equitable and just sentiment classification. Furthermore, the model diminished misclassification loss from 20.24% for unbalanced to 13.3% for balanced dataset, signifying enhanced generalization and resilience.

History Rhymes: Macro-Contextual Retrieval for Robust Financial Forecasting

Financial markets are inherently non-stationary: structural breaks and macroeconomic regime shifts often cause forecasting models to fail when deployed out of distribution (OOD). Conventional multimodal approaches that simply fuse numerical indicators and textual sentiment rarely adapt to such shifts. We introduce macro-contextual retrieval, a retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that grounds each prediction in historically analogous macroeconomic regimes. The method jointly embeds macro indicators (e.g., CPI, unemployment, yield spread, GDP growth) and financial news sentiment in a shared similarity space, enabling causal retrieval of precedent periods during inference without retraining. Trained on seventeen years of S&P 500 data (2007-2023) and evaluated OOD on AAPL (2024) and XOM (2024), the framework consistently narrows the CV to OOD performance gap. Macro-conditioned retrieval achieves the only positive out-of-sample trading outcomes (AAPL: PF=1.18, Sharpe=0.95; XOM: PF=1.16, Sharpe=0.61), while static numeric, text-only, and naive multimodal baselines collapse under regime shifts. Beyond metric gains, retrieved neighbors form interpretable evidence chains that correspond to recognizable macro contexts, such as inflationary or yield-curve inversion phases, supporting causal interpretability and transparency. By operationalizing the principle that "financial history may not repeat, but it often rhymes," this work demonstrates that macro-aware retrieval yields robust, explainable forecasts under distributional change. All datasets, models, and source code are publicly available.

From Passive to Persuasive: Steering Emotional Nuance in Human-AI Negotiation

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate increasing conversational fluency, yet instilling them with nuanced, human-like emotional expression remains a significant challenge. Current alignment techniques often address surface-level output or require extensive fine-tuning. This paper demonstrates that targeted activation engineering can steer LLaMA 3.1-8B to exhibit more human-like emotional nuances. We first employ attribution patching to identify causally influential components, to find a key intervention locus by observing activation patterns during diagnostic conversational tasks. We then derive emotional expression vectors from the difference in the activations generated by contrastive text pairs (positive vs. negative examples of target emotions). Applying these vectors to new conversational prompts significantly enhances emotional characteristics: steered responses show increased positive sentiment (e.g., joy, trust) and more frequent first-person pronoun usage, indicative of greater personal engagement. Our findings offer a precise and interpretable framework and new directions for the study of conversational AI.

Semantic Multiplexing

Mobile devices increasingly require the parallel execution of several computing tasks offloaded at the wireless edge. Existing communication systems only support parallel transmissions at the bit level, which fundamentally limits the number of tasks that can be concurrently processed. To address this bottleneck, this paper introduces the new concept of Semantic Multiplexing. Our approach shifts stream multiplexing from bits to tasks by merging multiple task-related compressed representations into a single semantic representation. As such, Semantic Multiplexing can multiplex more tasks than the number of physical channels without adding antennas or widening bandwidth by extending the effective degrees of freedom at the semantic layer, without contradicting Shannon capacity rules. We have prototyped Semantic Multiplexing on an experimental testbed with Jetson Orin Nano and millimeter-wave software-defined radios and tested its performance on image classification and sentiment analysis while comparing to several existing baselines in semantic communications. Our experiments demonstrate that Semantic Multiplexing allows jointly processing multiple tasks at the semantic level while maintaining sufficient task accuracy. For example, image classification accuracy drops by less than 4% when increasing from 2 to 8 the number of tasks multiplexed over a 4$\times$4 channel. Semantic Multiplexing reduces latency, energy consumption, and communication load respectively by up to 8$\times$, 25$\times$, and 54$\times$ compared to the baselines while keeping comparable performance. We pledge to publicly share the complete software codebase and the collected datasets for reproducibility.

MSMT-FN: Multi-segment Multi-task Fusion Network for Marketing Audio Classification

Audio classification plays an essential role in sentiment analysis and emotion recognition, especially for analyzing customer attitudes in marketing phone calls. Efficiently categorizing customer purchasing propensity from large volumes of audio data remains challenging. In this work, we propose a novel Multi-Segment Multi-Task Fusion Network (MSMT-FN) that is uniquely designed for addressing this business demand. Evaluations conducted on our proprietary MarketCalls dataset, as well as established benchmarks (CMU-MOSI, CMU-MOSEI, and MELD), show MSMT-FN consistently outperforms or matches state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, our newly curated MarketCalls dataset will be available upon request, and the code base is made accessible at GitHub Repository MSMT-FN, to facilitate further research and advancements in audio classification domain.

Adverbs Revisited: Enhancing WordNet Coverage of Adverbs with a Supersense Taxonomy

WordNet offers rich supersense hierarchies for nouns and verbs, yet adverbs remain underdeveloped, lacking a systematic semantic classification. We introduce a linguistically grounded supersense typology for adverbs, empirically validated through annotation, that captures major semantic domains including manner, temporal, frequency, degree, domain, speaker-oriented, and subject-oriented functions. Results from a pilot annotation study demonstrate that these categories provide broad coverage of adverbs in natural text and can be reliably assigned by human annotators. Incorporating this typology extends WordNet's coverage, aligns it more closely with linguistic theory, and facilitates downstream NLP applications such as word sense disambiguation, event extraction, sentiment analysis, and discourse modeling. We present the proposed supersense categories, annotation outcomes, and directions for future work.

Three Stage Narrative Analysis; Plot-Sentiment Breakdown, Structure Learning and Concept Detection

Story understanding and analysis have long been challenging areas within Natural Language Understanding. Automated narrative analysis requires deep computational semantic representations along with syntactic processing. Moreover, the large volume of narrative data demands automated semantic analysis and computational learning rather than manual analytical approaches. In this paper, we propose a framework that analyzes the sentiment arcs of movie scripts and performs extended analysis related to the context of the characters involved. The framework enables the extraction of high-level and low-level concepts conveyed through the narrative. Using dictionary-based sentiment analysis, our approach applies a custom lexicon built with the LabMTsimple storylab module. The custom lexicon is based on the Valence, Arousal, and Dominance scores from the NRC-VAD dataset. Furthermore, the framework advances the analysis by clustering similar sentiment plots using Wards hierarchical clustering technique. Experimental evaluation on a movie dataset shows that the resulting analysis is helpful to consumers and readers when selecting a narrative or story.

W2S-AlignTree: Weak-to-Strong Inference-Time Alignment for Large Language Models via Monte Carlo Tree Search

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, yet their outputs often suffer from misalignment with human preferences due to the inadequacy of weak supervision and a lack of fine-grained control. Training-time alignment methods like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) face prohibitive costs in expert supervision and inherent scalability limitations, offering limited dynamic control during inference. Consequently, there is an urgent need for scalable and adaptable alignment mechanisms. To address this, we propose W2S-AlignTree, a pioneering plug-and-play inference-time alignment framework that synergistically combines Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with the Weak-to-Strong Generalization paradigm for the first time. W2S-AlignTree formulates LLM alignment as an optimal heuristic search problem within a generative search tree. By leveraging weak model's real-time, step-level signals as alignment proxies and introducing an Entropy-Aware exploration mechanism, W2S-AlignTree enables fine-grained guidance during strong model's generation without modifying its parameters. The approach dynamically balances exploration and exploitation in high-dimensional generation search trees. Experiments across controlled sentiment generation, summarization, and instruction-following show that W2S-AlignTree consistently outperforms strong baselines. Notably, W2S-AlignTree raises the performance of Llama3-8B from 1.89 to 2.19, a relative improvement of 15.9 on the summarization task.