MAPLE: Mobile App Prediction Leveraging Large Language model Embeddings

Despite the rapid advancement of mobile applications, predicting app usage remains a formidable challenge due to intricate user behaviours and ever-evolving contexts. To address these issues, this paper introduces the Mobile App Prediction Leveraging Large Language Model Embeddings (MAPLE) model. This innovative approach utilizes Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict app usage accurately. Rigorous testing on two public datasets highlights MAPLE's capability to decipher intricate patterns and comprehend user contexts. These robust results confirm MAPLE's versatility and resilience across various scenarios. While its primary design caters to app prediction, the outcomes also emphasize the broader applicability of LLMs in different domains. Through this research, we emphasize the potential of LLMs in app usage prediction and suggest their transformative capacity in modelling human behaviours across diverse fields.

Navigating Out-of-Distribution Electricity Load Forecasting during COVID-19: A Continual Learning Approach Leveraging Human Mobility

In traditional deep learning algorithms, one of the key assumptions is that the data distribution remains constant during both training and deployment. However, this assumption becomes problematic when faced with Out-of-Distribution periods, such as the COVID-19 lockdowns, where the data distribution significantly deviates from what the model has seen during training. This paper employs a two-fold strategy: utilizing continual learning techniques to update models with new data and harnessing human mobility data collected from privacy-preserving pedestrian counters located outside buildings. In contrast to online learning, which suffers from 'catastrophic forgetting' as newly acquired knowledge often erases prior information, continual learning offers a holistic approach by preserving past insights while integrating new data. This research applies FSNet, a powerful continual learning algorithm, to real-world data from 13 building complexes in Melbourne, Australia, a city which had the second longest total lockdown duration globally during the pandemic. Results underscore the crucial role of continual learning in accurate energy forecasting, particularly during Out-of-Distribution periods. Secondary data such as mobility and temperature provided ancillary support to the primary forecasting model. More importantly, while traditional methods struggled to adapt during lockdowns, models featuring at least online learning demonstrated resilience, with lockdown periods posing fewer challenges once armed with adaptive learning techniques. This study contributes valuable methodologies and insights to the ongoing effort to improve energy load forecasting during future Out-of-Distribution periods.

Counterfactual Explanations via Locally-guided Sequential Algorithmic Recourse

Counterfactuals operationalised through algorithmic recourse have become a powerful tool to make artificial intelligence systems explainable. Conceptually, given an individual classified as y -- the factual -- we seek actions such that their prediction becomes the desired class y' -- the counterfactual. This process offers algorithmic recourse that is (1) easy to customise and interpret, and (2) directly aligned with the goals of each individual. However, the properties of a "good" counterfactual are still largely debated; it remains an open challenge to effectively locate a counterfactual along with its corresponding recourse. Some strategies use gradient-driven methods, but these offer no guarantees on the feasibility of the recourse and are open to adversarial attacks on carefully created manifolds. This can lead to unfairness and lack of robustness. Other methods are data-driven, which mostly addresses the feasibility problem at the expense of privacy, security and secrecy as they require access to the entire training data set. Here, we introduce LocalFACE, a model-agnostic technique that composes feasible and actionable counterfactual explanations using locally-acquired information at each step of the algorithmic recourse. Our explainer preserves the privacy of users by only leveraging data that it specifically requires to construct actionable algorithmic recourse, and protects the model by offering transparency solely in the regions deemed necessary for the intervention.

Hypergraph Convolutional Networks for Fine-grained ICU Patient Similarity Analysis and Risk Prediction

The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is one of the most important parts of a hospital, which admits critically ill patients and provides continuous monitoring and treatment. Various patient outcome prediction methods have been attempted to assist healthcare professionals in clinical decision-making. Existing methods focus on measuring the similarity between patients using deep neural networks to capture the hidden feature structures. However, the higher-order relationships are ignored, such as patient characteristics (e.g., diagnosis codes) and their causal effects on downstream clinical predictions. In this paper, we propose a novel Hypergraph Convolutional Network that allows the representation of non-pairwise relationships among diagnosis codes in a hypergraph to capture the hidden feature structures so that fine-grained patient similarity can be calculated for personalized mortality risk prediction. Evaluation using a publicly available eICU Collaborative Research Database indicates that our method achieves superior performance over the state-of-the-art models on mortality risk prediction. Moreover, the results of several case studies demonstrated the effectiveness of constructing graph networks in providing good transparency and robustness in decision-making.

Contrastive Learning-based Imputation-Prediction Networks for In-hospital Mortality Risk Modeling using EHRs

Predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality from electronic health records (EHRs) has received considerable attention. Such predictions will provide early warning of a patient's health condition to healthcare professionals so that timely interventions can be taken. This prediction task is challenging since EHR data are intrinsically irregular, with not only many missing values but also varying time intervals between medical records. Existing approaches focus on exploiting the variable correlations in patient medical records to impute missing values and establishing time-decay mechanisms to deal with such irregularity. This paper presents a novel contrastive learning-based imputation-prediction network for predicting in-hospital mortality risks using EHR data. Our approach introduces graph analysis-based patient stratification modeling in the imputation process to group similar patients. This allows information of similar patients only to be used, in addition to personal contextual information, for missing value imputation. Moreover, our approach can integrate contrastive learning into the proposed network architecture to enhance patient representation learning and predictive performance on the classification task. Experiments on two real-world EHR datasets show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in both imputation and prediction tasks.

Continually learning out-of-distribution spatiotemporal data for robust energy forecasting

Forecasting building energy usage is essential for promoting sustainability and reducing waste, as it enables building managers to optimize energy consumption and reduce costs. This importance is magnified during anomalous periods, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which have disrupted occupancy patterns and made accurate forecasting more challenging. Forecasting energy usage during anomalous periods is difficult due to changes in occupancy patterns and energy usage behavior. One of the primary reasons for this is the shift in distribution of occupancy patterns, with many people working or learning from home. This has created a need for new forecasting methods that can adapt to changing occupancy patterns. Online learning has emerged as a promising solution to this challenge, as it enables building managers to adapt to changes in occupancy patterns and adjust energy usage accordingly. With online learning, models can be updated incrementally with each new data point, allowing them to learn and adapt in real-time. Another solution is to use human mobility data as a proxy for occupancy, leveraging the prevalence of mobile devices to track movement patterns and infer occupancy levels. Human mobility data can be useful in this context as it provides a way to monitor occupancy patterns without relying on traditional sensors or manual data collection methods. We have conducted extensive experiments using data from six buildings to test the efficacy of these approaches. However, deploying these methods in the real world presents several challenges.

Message Passing Neural Networks for Traffic Forecasting

A road network, in the context of traffic forecasting, is typically modeled as a graph where the nodes are sensors that measure traffic metrics (such as speed) at that location. Traffic forecasting is interesting because it is complex as the future speed of a road is dependent on a number of different factors. Therefore, to properly forecast traffic, we need a model that is capable of capturing all these different factors. A factor that is missing from the existing works is the node interactions factor. Existing works fail to capture the inter-node interactions because none are using the message-passing flavor of GNN, which is the one best suited to capture the node interactions This paper presents a plausible scenario in road traffic where node interactions are important and argued that the most appropriate GNN flavor to capture node interactions is message-passing. Results from real-world data show the superiority of the message-passing flavor for traffic forecasting. An additional experiment using synthetic data shows that the message-passing flavor can capture inter-node interaction better than other flavors.

Traffic Forecasting on New Roads Unseen in the Training Data Using Spatial Contrastive Pre-Training

New roads are being constructed all the time. However, the capabilities of previous deep forecasting models to generalize to new roads not seen in the training data (unseen roads) are rarely explored. In this paper, we introduce a novel setup called a spatio-temporal (ST) split to evaluate the models' capabilities to generalize to unseen roads. In this setup, the models are trained on data from a sample of roads, but tested on roads not seen in the training data. Moreover, we also present a novel framework called Spatial Contrastive Pre-Training (SCPT) where we introduce a spatial encoder module to extract latent features from unseen roads during inference time. This spatial encoder is pre-trained using contrastive learning. During inference, the spatial encoder only requires two days of traffic data on the new roads and does not require any re-training. We also show that the output from the spatial encoder can be used effectively to infer latent node embeddings on unseen roads during inference time. The SCPT framework also incorporates a new layer, named the spatially gated addition (SGA) layer, to effectively combine the latent features from the output of the spatial encoder to existing backbones. Additionally, since there is limited data on the unseen roads, we argue that it is better to decouple traffic signals to trivial-to-capture periodic signals and difficult-to-capture Markovian signals, and for the spatial encoder to only learn the Markovian signals. Finally, we empirically evaluated SCPT using the ST split setup on four real-world datasets. The results showed that adding SCPT to a backbone consistently improves forecasting performance on unseen roads. More importantly, the improvements are greater when forecasting further into the future.

Self-supervised Activity Representation Learning with Incremental Data: An Empirical Study

In the context of mobile sensing environments, various sensors on mobile devices continually generate a vast amount of data. Analyzing this ever-increasing data presents several challenges, including limited access to annotated data and a constantly changing environment. Recent advancements in self-supervised learning have been utilized as a pre-training step to enhance the performance of conventional supervised models to address the absence of labelled datasets. This research examines the impact of using a self-supervised representation learning model for time series classification tasks in which data is incrementally available. We proposed and evaluated a workflow in which a model learns to extract informative features using a corpus of unlabeled time series data and then conducts classification on labelled data using features extracted by the model. We analyzed the effect of varying the size, distribution, and source of the unlabeled data on the final classification performance across four public datasets, including various types of sensors in diverse applications.