GEnSHIN: Graphical Enhanced Spatio-temporal Hierarchical Inference Network for Traffic Flow Prediction

With the acceleration of urbanization, intelligent transportation systems have an increasing demand for accurate traffic flow prediction. This paper proposes a novel Graph Enhanced Spatio-temporal Hierarchical Inference Network (GEnSHIN) to handle the complex spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic flow prediction. The model integrates three innovative designs: 1) An attention-enhanced Graph Convolutional Recurrent Unit (GCRU), which strengthens the modeling capability for long-term temporal dependencies by introducing Transformer modules; 2) An asymmetric dual-embedding graph generation mechanism, which leverages the real road network and data-driven latent asymmetric topology to generate graph structures that better fit the characteristics of actual traffic flow; 3) A dynamic memory bank module, which utilizes learnable traffic pattern prototypes to provide personalized traffic pattern representations for each sensor node, and introduces a lightweight graph updater during the decoding phase to adapt to dynamic changes in road network states. Extensive experiments on the public dataset METR-LA show that GEnSHIN achieves or surpasses the performance of comparative models across multiple metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Notably, the model demonstrates excellent prediction stability during peak morning and evening traffic hours. Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each core module and its contribution to the final performance.

Which Deep Learner? A Systematic Evaluation of Advanced Deep Forecasting Models Accuracy and Efficiency for Network Traffic Prediction

Network traffic prediction is essential for automating modern network management. It is a difficult time series forecasting (TSF) problem that has been addressed by Deep Learning (DL) models due to their ability to capture complex patterns. Advances in forecasting, from sophisticated transformer architectures to simple linear models, have improved performance across diverse prediction tasks. However, given the variability of network traffic across network environments and traffic series timescales, it is essential to identify effective deployment choices and modeling directions for network traffic prediction. This study systematically identify and evaluates twelve advanced TSF models -- including transformer-based and traditional DL approaches, each with unique advantages for network traffic prediction -- against three statistical baselines on four real traffic datasets, across multiple time scales and horizons, assessing performance, robustness to anomalies, data gaps, external factors, data efficiency, and resource efficiency in terms of time, memory, and energy. Results highlight performance regimes, efficiency thresholds, and promising architectures that balance accuracy and efficiency, demonstrating robustness to traffic challenges and suggesting new directions beyond traditional RNNs.

Online Learning with Limited Information in the Sliding Window Model

Motivated by recent work on the experts problem in the streaming model, we consider the experts problem in the sliding window model. The sliding window model is a well-studied model that captures applications such as traffic monitoring, epidemic tracking, and automated trading, where recent information is more valuable than older data. Formally, we have $n$ experts, $T$ days, the ability to query the predictions of $q$ experts on each day, a limited amount of memory, and should achieve the (near-)optimal regret $\sqrt{nW}\text{polylog}(nT)$ regret over any window of the last $W$ days. While it is impossible to achieve such regret with $1$ query, we show that with $2$ queries we can achieve such regret and with only $\text{polylog}(nT)$ bits of memory. Not only are our algorithms optimal for sliding windows, but we also show for every interval $\mathcal{I}$ of days that we achieve $\sqrt{n|\mathcal{I}|}\text{polylog}(nT)$ regret with $2$ queries and only $\text{polylog}(nT)$ bits of memory, providing an exponential improvement on the memory of previous interval regret algorithms. Building upon these techniques, we address the bandit problem in data streams, where $q=1$, achieving $n T^{2/3}\text{polylog}(T)$ regret with $\text{polylog}(nT)$ memory, which is the first sublinear regret in the streaming model in the bandit setting with polylogarithmic memory; this can be further improved to the optimal $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{nT})$ regret if the best expert's losses are in a random order.

MixTTE: Multi-Level Mixture-of-Experts for Scalable and Adaptive Travel Time Estimation

Accurate Travel Time Estimation (TTE) is critical for ride-hailing platforms, where errors directly impact user experience and operational efficiency. While existing production systems excel at holistic route-level dependency modeling, they struggle to capture city-scale traffic dynamics and long-tail scenarios, leading to unreliable predictions in large urban networks. In this paper, we propose \model, a scalable and adaptive framework that synergistically integrates link-level modeling with industrial route-level TTE systems. Specifically, we propose a spatio-temporal external attention module to capture global traffic dynamic dependencies across million-scale road networks efficiently. Moreover, we construct a stabilized graph mixture-of-experts network to handle heterogeneous traffic patterns while maintaining inference efficiency. Furthermore, an asynchronous incremental learning strategy is tailored to enable real-time and stable adaptation to dynamic traffic distribution shifts. Experiments on real-world datasets validate MixTTE significantly reduces prediction errors compared to seven baselines. MixTTE has been deployed in DiDi, substantially improving the accuracy and stability of the TTE service.

STReasoner: Empowering LLMs for Spatio-Temporal Reasoning in Time Series via Spatial-Aware Reinforcement Learning

Spatio-temporal reasoning in time series involves the explicit synthesis of temporal dynamics, spatial dependencies, and textual context. This capability is vital for high-stakes decision-making in systems such as traffic networks, power grids, and disease propagation. However, the field remains underdeveloped because most existing works prioritize predictive accuracy over reasoning. To address the gap, we introduce ST-Bench, a benchmark consisting of four core tasks, including etiological reasoning, entity identification, correlation reasoning, and in-context forecasting, developed via a network SDE-based multi-agent data synthesis pipeline. We then propose STReasoner, which empowers LLM to integrate time series, graph structure, and text for explicit reasoning. To promote spatially grounded logic, we introduce S-GRPO, a reinforcement learning algorithm that rewards performance gains specifically attributable to spatial information. Experiments show that STReasoner achieves average accuracy gains between 17% and 135% at only 0.004X the cost of proprietary models and generalizes robustly to real-world data.

The Weather Paradox: Why Precipitation Fails to Predict Traffic Accident Severity in Large-Scale US Data

This study investigates the predictive capacity of environmental, temporal, and spatial factors on traffic accident severity in the United States. Using a dataset of 500,000 U.S. traffic accidents spanning 2016-2023, we trained an XGBoost classifier optimized through randomized search cross-validation and adjusted for class imbalance via class weighting. The final model achieves an overall accuracy of 78%, with strong performance on the majority class (Severity 2), attaining 87% precision and recall. Feature importance analysis reveals that time of day, geographic location, and weather-related variables, including visibility, temperature, and wind speed, rank among the strongest predictors of accident severity. However, contrary to initial hypotheses, precipitation and visibility demonstrate limited predictive power, potentially reflecting behavioral adaptation by drivers under overtly hazardous conditions. The dataset's predominance of mid-level severity accidents constrains the model's capacity to learn meaningful patterns for extreme cases, highlighting the need for alternative sampling strategies, enhanced feature engineering, and integration of external datasets. These findings contribute to evidence-based traffic management and suggest future directions for severity prediction research.

AutoFed: Manual-Free Federated Traffic Prediction via Personalized Prompt

Accurate traffic prediction is essential for Intelligent Transportation Systems, including ride-hailing, urban road planning, and vehicle fleet management. However, due to significant privacy concerns surrounding traffic data, most existing methods rely on local training, resulting in data silos and limited knowledge sharing. Federated Learning (FL) offers an efficient solution through privacy-preserving collaborative training; however, standard FL struggles with the non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) problem among clients. This challenge has led to the emergence of Personalized Federated Learning (PFL) as a promising paradigm. Nevertheless, current PFL frameworks require further adaptation for traffic prediction tasks, such as specialized graph feature engineering, data processing, and network architecture design. A notable limitation of many prior studies is their reliance on hyper-parameter optimization across datasets-information that is often unavailable in real-world scenarios-thus impeding practical deployment. To address this challenge, we propose AutoFed, a novel PFL framework for traffic prediction that eliminates the need for manual hyper-parameter tuning. Inspired by prompt learning, AutoFed introduces a federated representor that employs a client-aligned adapter to distill local data into a compact, globally shared prompt matrix. This prompt then conditions a personalized predictor, allowing each client to benefit from cross-client knowledge while maintaining local specificity. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that AutoFed consistently achieves superior performance across diverse scenarios. The code of this paper is provided at https://github.com/RS2002/AutoFed .

Traffic-Aware Optimal Taxi Placement Using Graph Neural Network-Based Reinforcement Learning

In the context of smart city transportation, efficient matching of taxi supply with passenger demand requires real-time integration of urban traffic network data and mobility patterns. Conventional taxi hotspot prediction models often rely solely on historical demand, overlooking dynamic influences such as traffic congestion, road incidents, and public events. This paper presents a traffic-aware, graph-based reinforcement learning (RL) framework for optimal taxi placement in metropolitan environments. The urban road network is modeled as a graph where intersections represent nodes, road segments serve as edges, and node attributes capture historical demand, event proximity, and real-time congestion scores obtained from live traffic APIs. Graph Neural Network (GNN) embeddings are employed to encode spatial-temporal dependencies within the traffic network, which are then used by a Q-learning agent to recommend optimal taxi hotspots. The reward mechanism jointly optimizes passenger waiting time, driver travel distance, and congestion avoidance. Experiments on a simulated Delhi taxi dataset, generated using real geospatial boundaries and historic ride-hailing request patterns, demonstrate that the proposed model reduced passenger waiting time by about 56% and reduced travel distance by 38% compared to baseline stochastic selection. The proposed approach is adaptable to multi-modal transport systems and can be integrated into smart city platforms for real-time urban mobility optimization.

Rectifying Adversarial Examples Using Their Vulnerabilities

Deep neural network-based classifiers are prone to errors when processing adversarial examples (AEs). AEs are minimally perturbed input data undetectable to humans posing significant risks to security-dependent applications. Hence, extensive research has been undertaken to develop defense mechanisms that mitigate their threats. Most existing methods primarily focus on discriminating AEs based on the input sample features, emphasizing AE detection without addressing the correct sample categorization before an attack. While some tasks may only require mere rejection on detected AEs, others necessitate identifying the correct original input category such as traffic sign recognition in autonomous driving. The objective of this study is to propose a method for rectifying AEs to estimate the correct labels of their original inputs. Our method is based on re-attacking AEs to move them beyond the decision boundary for accurate label prediction, effectively addressing the issue of rectifying minimally perceptible AEs created using white-box attack methods. However, challenge remains with respect to effectively rectifying AEs produced by black-box attacks at a distance from the boundary, or those misclassified into low-confidence categories by targeted attacks. By adopting a straightforward approach of only considering AEs as inputs, the proposed method can address diverse attacks while avoiding the requirement of parameter adjustments or preliminary training. Results demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits consistent performance in rectifying AEs generated via various attack methods, including targeted and black-box attacks. Moreover, it outperforms conventional rectification and input transformation methods in terms of stability against various attacks.

The Impact of LLMs on Online News Consumption and Production

Large language models (LLMs) change how consumers acquire information online; their bots also crawl news publishers' websites for training data and to answer consumer queries; and they provide tools that can lower the cost of content creation. These changes lead to predictions of adverse impact on news publishers in the form of lowered consumer demand, reduced demand for newsroom employees, and an increase in news "slop." Consequently, some publishers strategically responded by blocking LLM access to their websites using the robots.txt file standard. Using high-frequency granular data, we document four effects related to the predicted shifts in news publishing following the introduction of generative AI (GenAI). First, we find a consistent and moderate decline in traffic to news publishers occurring after August 2024. Second, using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that blocking GenAI bots can have adverse effects on large publishers by reducing total website traffic by 23% and real consumer traffic by 14% compared to not blocking. Third, on the hiring side, we do not find evidence that LLMs are replacing editorial or content-production jobs yet. The share of new editorial and content-production job listings increases over time. Fourth, regarding content production, we find no evidence that large publishers increased text volume; instead, they significantly increased rich content and use more advertising and targeting technologies. Together, these findings provide early evidence of some unforeseen impacts of the introduction of LLMs on news production and consumption.