Interpretable long-term traffic modelling on national road networks using theory-informed deep learning

Long-term traffic modelling is fundamental to transport planning, but existing approaches often trade off interpretability, transferability, and predictive accuracy. Classical travel demand models provide behavioural structure but rely on strong assumptions and extensive calibration, whereas generic deep learning models capture complex patterns but often lack theoretical grounding and spatial transferability, limiting their usefulness for long-term planning applications. We propose DeepDemand, a theory-informed deep learning framework that embeds key components of travel demand theory to predict long-term highway traffic volumes using external socioeconomic features and road-network structure. The framework integrates a competitive two-source Dijkstra procedure for local origin-destination (OD) region extraction and OD pair screening with a differentiable architecture modelling OD interactions and travel-time deterrence. The model is evaluated using eight years (2017-2024) of observations on the UK strategic road network, covering 5088 highway segments. Under random cross-validation, DeepDemand achieves an R2 of 0.718 and an MAE of 7406 vehicles, outperforming linear, ridge, random forest, and gravity-style baselines. Performance remains strong under spatial cross-validation (R2 = 0.665), indicating good geographic transferability. Interpretability analysis reveals a stable nonlinear travel-time deterrence pattern, key socioeconomic drivers of demand, and polycentric OD interaction structures aligned with major employment centres and transport hubs. These results highlight the value of integrating transport theory with deep learning for interpretable highway traffic modelling and practical planning applications.

DTP-Attack: A decision-based black-box adversarial attack on trajectory prediction

Trajectory prediction systems are critical for autonomous vehicle safety, yet remain vulnerable to adversarial attacks that can cause catastrophic traffic behavior misinterpretations. Existing attack methods require white-box access with gradient information and rely on rigid physical constraints, limiting real-world applicability. We propose DTP-Attack, a decision-based black-box adversarial attack framework tailored for trajectory prediction systems. Our method operates exclusively on binary decision outputs without requiring model internals or gradients, making it practical for real-world scenarios. DTP-Attack employs a novel boundary walking algorithm that navigates adversarial regions without fixed constraints, naturally maintaining trajectory realism through proximity preservation. Unlike existing approaches, our method supports both intention misclassification attacks and prediction accuracy degradation. Extensive evaluation on nuScenes and Apolloscape datasets across state-of-the-art models including Trajectron++ and Grip++ demonstrates superior performance. DTP-Attack achieves 41 - 81% attack success rates for intention misclassification attacks that manipulate perceived driving maneuvers with perturbations below 0.45 m, and increases prediction errors by 1.9 - 4.2 for accuracy degradation. Our method consistently outperforms existing black-box approaches while maintaining high controllability and reliability across diverse scenarios. These results reveal fundamental vulnerabilities in current trajectory prediction systems, highlighting urgent needs for robust defenses in safety-critical autonomous driving applications.

Learning Rollout from Sampling:An R1-Style Tokenized Traffic Simulation Model

Learning diverse and high-fidelity traffic simulations from human driving demonstrations is crucial for autonomous driving evaluation. The recent next-token prediction (NTP) paradigm, widely adopted in large language models (LLMs), has been applied to traffic simulation and achieves iterative improvements via supervised fine-tuning (SFT). However, such methods limit active exploration of potentially valuable motion tokens, particularly in suboptimal regions. Entropy patterns provide a promising perspective for enabling exploration driven by motion token uncertainty. Motivated by this insight, we propose a novel tokenized traffic simulation policy, R1Sim, which represents an initial attempt to explore reinforcement learning based on motion token entropy patterns, and systematically analyzes the impact of different motion tokens on simulation outcomes. Specifically, we introduce an entropy-guided adaptive sampling mechanism that focuses on previously overlooked motion tokens with high uncertainty yet high potential. We further optimize motion behaviors using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), guided by a safety-aware reward design. Overall, these components enable a balanced exploration-exploitation trade-off through diverse high-uncertainty sampling and group-wise comparative estimation, resulting in realistic, safe, and diverse multi-agent behaviors. Extensive experiments on the Waymo Sim Agent benchmark demonstrate that R1Sim achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.

CROSS: A Mixture-of-Experts Reinforcement Learning Framework for Generalizable Large-Scale Traffic Signal Control

Recent advances in robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence have enabled urban traffic systems to operate with increasing autonomy towards future smart cities, powered in part by the development of adaptive traffic signal control (ATSC), which dynamically optimizes signal phases to mitigate congestion and optimize traffic. However, achieving effective and generalizable large-scale ATSC remains a significant challenge due to the diverse intersection topologies and highly dynamic, complex traffic demand patterns across the network. Existing RL-based methods typically use a single shared policy for all scenarios, whose limited representational capacity makes it difficult to capture diverse traffic dynamics and generalize to unseen environments. To address these challenges, we propose CROSS, a novel Mixture-of-Experts (MoE)-based decentralized RL framework for generalizable ATSC. We first introduce a Predictive Contrastive Clustering (PCC) module that forecasts short-term state transitions to identify latent traffic patterns, followed by clustering and contrastive learning to enhance pattern-level representation. We further design a Scenario-Adaptive MoE module that augments a shared policy with multiple experts, thus enabling adaptive specialization and more flexible scenario-specific strategies. We conduct extensive experiments in the SUMO simulator on both synthetic and real-world traffic datasets. Compared with state-of-the-art baselines, CROSS achieves superior performance and generalization through improved representation of diverse traffic scenarios.

Goal-Oriented Reactive Simulation for Closed-Loop Trajectory Prediction

Current trajectory prediction models are primarily trained in an open-loop manner, which often leads to covariate shift and compounding errors when deployed in real-world, closed-loop settings. Furthermore, relying on static datasets or non-reactive log-replay simulators severs the interactive loop, preventing the ego agent from learning to actively negotiate surrounding traffic. In this work, we propose an on-policy closed-loop training paradigm optimized for high-frequency, receding horizon ego prediction. To ground the ego prediction in a realistic representation of traffic interactions and to achieve reactive consistency, we introduce a goal-oriented, transformer-based scene decoder, resulting in an inherently reactive training simulation. By exposing the ego agent to a mixture of open-loop data and simulated, self-induced states, the model learns recovery behaviors to correct its own execution errors. Extensive evaluation demonstrates that closed-loop training significantly enhances collision avoidance capabilities at high replanning frequencies, yielding relative collision rate reductions of up to 27.0% on nuScenes and 79.5% in dense DeepScenario intersections compared to open-loop baselines. Additionally, we show that a hybrid simulation combining reactive with non-reactive surrounding agents achieves optimal balance between immediate interactivity and long-term behavioral stability.

CoordLight: Learning Decentralized Coordination for Network-Wide Traffic Signal Control

Adaptive traffic signal control (ATSC) is crucial in alleviating congestion, maximizing throughput and promoting sustainable mobility in ever-expanding cities. Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has recently shown significant potential in addressing complex traffic dynamics, but the intricacies of partial observability and coordination in decentralized environments still remain key challenges in formulating scalable and efficient control strategies. To address these challenges, we present CoordLight, a MARL-based framework designed to improve intra-neighborhood traffic by enhancing decision-making at individual junctions (agents), as well as coordination with neighboring agents, thereby scaling up to network-level traffic optimization. Specifically, we introduce the Queue Dynamic State Encoding (QDSE), a novel state representation based on vehicle queuing models, which strengthens the agents' capability to analyze, predict, and respond to local traffic dynamics. We further propose an advanced MARL algorithm, named Neighbor-aware Policy Optimization (NAPO). It integrates an attention mechanism that discerns the state and action dependencies among adjacent agents, aiming to facilitate more coordinated decision-making, and to improve policy learning updates through robust advantage calculation. This enables agents to identify and prioritize crucial interactions with influential neighbors, thus enhancing the targeted coordination and collaboration among agents. Through comprehensive evaluations against state-of-the-art traffic signal control methods over three real-world traffic datasets composed of up to 196 intersections, we empirically show that CoordLight consistently exhibits superior performance across diverse traffic networks with varying traffic flows. The code is available at https://github.com/marmotlab/CoordLight

Eye Gaze-Informed and Context-Aware Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction in Shared Spaces with Automated Shuttles: A Virtual Reality Study

The integration of Automated Shuttles into shared urban spaces presents unique challenges due to the absence of traffic rules and the complex pedestrian interactions. Accurately anticipating pedestrian behavior in such unstructured environments is therefore critical for ensuring both safety and efficiency. This paper presents a Virtual Reality (VR) study that captures how pedestrians interact with automated shuttles across diverse scenarios, including varying approach angles and navigating in continuous traffic. We identify critical behavior patterns present in pedestrians' decision-making in shared spaces, including hesitation, evasive maneuvers, gaze allocation, and proxemic adjustments. To model pedestrian behavior, we propose GazeX-LSTM, a multimodal eye gaze-informed and context-aware prediction model that integrates pedestrians' trajectories, fine-grained eye gaze dynamics, and contextual factors. We shift prediction from a vehicle- to a human-centered perspective by leveraging eye-tracking data to capture pedestrian attention. We systematically validate the unique and irreplaceable predictive power of eye gaze over head orientation alone, further enhancing performance by integrating contextual variables. Notably, the combination of eye gaze data and contextual information produces super-additive improvements on pedestrian behavior prediction accuracy, revealing the complementary relationship between visual attention and situational contexts. Together, our findings provide the first evidence that eye gaze-informed modeling fundamentally advances pedestrian behavior prediction and highlight the critical role of situational contexts in shared-space interactions. This paves the way for safer and more adaptive automated vehicle technologies that account for how people perceive and act in complex shared spaces.

Data-driven generalized perimeter control: Zürich case study

Urban traffic congestion is a key challenge for the development of modern cities, requiring advanced control techniques to optimize existing infrastructures usage. Despite the extensive availability of data, modeling such complex systems remains an expensive and time consuming step when designing model-based control approaches. On the other hand, machine learning approaches require simulations to bootstrap models, or are unable to deal with the sparse nature of traffic data and enforce hard constraints. We propose a novel formulation of traffic dynamics based on behavioral systems theory and apply data-enabled predictive control to steer traffic dynamics via dynamic traffic light control. A high-fidelity simulation of the city of Zürich, the largest closed-loop microscopic simulation of urban traffic in the literature to the best of our knowledge, is used to validate the performance of the proposed method in terms of total travel time and CO2 emissions.

ASCENT: Transformer-Based Aircraft Trajectory Prediction in Non-Towered Terminal Airspace

Accurate trajectory prediction can improve General Aviation safety in non-towered terminal airspace, where high traffic density increases accident risk. We present ASCENT, a lightweight transformer-based model for multi-modal 3D aircraft trajectory forecasting, which integrates domain-aware 3D coordinate normalization and parameterized predictions. ASCENT employs a transformer-based motion encoder and a query-based decoder, enabling the generation of diverse maneuver hypotheses with low latency. Experiments on the TrajAir and TartanAviation datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms prior baselines, as the encoder effectively captures motion dynamics and the decoder aligns with structured aircraft traffic patterns. Furthermore, ablation studies confirm the contributions of the decoder design, coordinate-frame modeling, and parameterized outputs. These results establish ASCENT as an effective approach for real-time aircraft trajectory prediction in non-towered terminal airspace.

Long-Horizon Traffic Forecasting via Incident-Aware Conformal Spatio-Temporal Transformers

Reliable multi-horizon traffic forecasting is challenging because network conditions are stochastic, incident disruptions are intermittent, and effective spatial dependencies vary across time-of-day patterns. This study is conducted on the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) traffic count data and corresponding ODOT crash records. This work utilizes a Spatio-Temporal Transformer (STT) model with Adaptive Conformal Prediction (ACP) to produce multi-horizon forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. We propose a piecewise Coefficient of Variation (CV) strategy that models hour-to-hour traveltime variability using a log-normal distribution, enabling the construction of a per-hour dynamic adjacency matrix. We further perturb edge weights using incident-related severity signals derived from the ODOT crash dataset that comprises incident clearance time, weather conditions, speed violations, work zones, and roadway functional class, to capture localized disruptions and peak/off-peak transitions. This dynamic graph construction replaces a fixed-CV assumption and better represents changing traffic conditions within the forecast window. For validation, we generate extended trips via multi-hour loop runs on the Columbus, Ohio, network in SUMO simulations and apply a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain travel-time distributions for a Vehicle Under Test (VUT). Experiments demonstrate improved long-horizon accuracy and well-calibrated prediction intervals compared to other baseline methods.