Time Series Generative Learning with Application to Brain Imaging Analysis

This paper focuses on the analysis of sequential image data, particularly brain imaging data such as MRI, fMRI, CT, with the motivation of understanding the brain aging process and neurodegenerative diseases. To achieve this goal, we investigate image generation in a time series context. Specifically, we formulate a min-max problem derived from the $f$-divergence between neighboring pairs to learn a time series generator in a nonparametric manner. The generator enables us to generate future images by transforming prior lag-k observations and a random vector from a reference distribution. With a deep neural network learned generator, we prove that the joint distribution of the generated sequence converges to the latent truth under a Markov and a conditional invariance condition. Furthermore, we extend our generation mechanism to a panel data scenario to accommodate multiple samples. The effectiveness of our mechanism is evaluated by generating real brain MRI sequences from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. These generated image sequences can be used as data augmentation to enhance the performance of further downstream tasks, such as Alzheimer's disease detection.

Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark

Time series, characterized by a sequence of data points arranged in a discrete-time order, are ubiquitous in real-world applications. Different from other modalities, time series present unique challenges due to their complex and dynamic nature, including the entanglement of nonlinear patterns and time-variant trends. Analyzing time series data is of great significance in real-world scenarios and has been widely studied over centuries. Recent years have witnessed remarkable breakthroughs in the time series community, with techniques shifting from traditional statistical methods to advanced deep learning models. In this paper, we delve into the design of deep time series models across various analysis tasks and review the existing literature from two perspectives: basic modules and model architectures. Further, we develop and release Time Series Library (TSLib) as a fair benchmark of deep time series models for diverse analysis tasks, which implements 24 mainstream models, covers 30 datasets from different domains, and supports five prevalent analysis tasks. Based on TSLib, we thoroughly evaluate 12 advanced deep time series models on different tasks. Empirical results indicate that models with specific structures are well-suited for distinct analytical tasks, which offers insights for research and adoption of deep time series models. Code is available at https://github.com/thuml/Time-Series-Library.

NODER: Image Sequence Regression Based on Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Regression on medical image sequences can capture temporal image pattern changes and predict images at missing or future time points. However, existing geodesic regression methods limit their regression performance by a strong underlying assumption of linear dynamics, while diffusion-based methods have high computational costs and lack constraints to preserve image topology. In this paper, we propose an optimization-based new framework called NODER, which leverages neural ordinary differential equations to capture complex underlying dynamics and reduces its high computational cost of handling high-dimensional image volumes by introducing the latent space. We compare our NODER with two recent regression methods, and the experimental results on ADNI and ACDC datasets demonstrate that our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance in 3D image regression. Our model needs only a couple of images in a sequence for prediction, which is practical, especially for clinical situations where extremely limited image time series are available for analysis. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ZedKing12138/NODER-pytorch.

Exploring Facial Biomarkers for Depression through Temporal Analysis of Action Units

Depression is characterized by persistent sadness and loss of interest, significantly impairing daily functioning and now a widespread mental disorder. Traditional diagnostic methods rely on subjective assessments, necessitating objective approaches for accurate diagnosis. Our study investigates the use of facial action units (AUs) and emotions as biomarkers for depression. We analyzed facial expressions from video data of participants classified with or without depression. Our methodology involved detailed feature extraction, mean intensity comparisons of key AUs, and the application of time series classification models. Furthermore, we employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and various clustering algorithms to explore the variability in emotional expression patterns. Results indicate significant differences in the intensities of AUs associated with sadness and happiness between the groups, highlighting the potential of facial analysis in depression assessment.

Omni-Dimensional Frequency Learner for General Time Series Analysis

Frequency domain representation of time series feature offers a concise representation for handling real-world time series data with inherent complexity and dynamic nature. However, current frequency-based methods with complex operations still fall short of state-of-the-art time domain methods for general time series analysis. In this work, we present Omni-Dimensional Frequency Learner (ODFL) model based on a in depth analysis among all the three aspects of the spectrum feature: channel redundancy property among the frequency dimension, the sparse and un-salient frequency energy distribution among the frequency dimension, and the semantic diversity among the variable dimension. Technically, our method is composed of a semantic-adaptive global filter with attention to the un-salient frequency bands and partial operation among the channel dimension. Empirical results show that ODFL achieves consistent state-of-the-art in five mainstream time series analysis tasks, including short- and long-term forecasting, imputation, classification, and anomaly detection, offering a promising foundation for time series analysis.

Not All Frequencies Are Created Equal:Towards a Dynamic Fusion of Frequencies in Time-Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting is a long-standing challenge in various applications. A central issue in time series forecasting is that methods should expressively capture long-term dependency. Furthermore, time series forecasting methods should be flexible when applied to different scenarios. Although Fourier analysis offers an alternative to effectively capture reusable and periodic patterns to achieve long-term forecasting in different scenarios, existing methods often assume high-frequency components represent noise and should be discarded in time series forecasting. However, we conduct a series of motivation experiments and discover that the role of certain frequencies varies depending on the scenarios. In some scenarios, removing high-frequency components from the original time series can improve the forecasting performance, while in others scenarios, removing them is harmful to forecasting performance. Therefore, it is necessary to treat the frequencies differently according to specific scenarios. To achieve this, we first reformulate the time series forecasting problem as learning a transfer function of each frequency in the Fourier domain. Further, we design Frequency Dynamic Fusion (FreDF), which individually predicts each Fourier component, and dynamically fuses the output of different frequencies. Moreover, we provide a novel insight into the generalization ability of time series forecasting and propose the generalization bound of time series forecasting. Then we prove FreDF has a lower bound, indicating that FreDF has better generalization ability. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple benchmark datasets and ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of FreDF.

Quantum Natural Stochastic Pairwise Coordinate Descent

Quantum machine learning through variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) has gained substantial attention in recent years. VQAs employ parameterized quantum circuits, which are typically optimized using gradient-based methods. However, these methods often exhibit sub-optimal convergence performance due to their dependence on Euclidean geometry. The quantum natural gradient descent (QNGD) optimization method, which considers the geometry of the quantum state space via a quantum information (Riemannian) metric tensor, provides a more effective optimization strategy. Despite its advantages, QNGD encounters notable challenges for learning from quantum data, including the no-cloning principle, which prohibits the replication of quantum data, state collapse, and the measurement postulate, which leads to the stochastic loss function. This paper introduces the quantum natural stochastic pairwise coordinate descent (2-QNSCD) optimization method. This method leverages the curved geometry of the quantum state space through a novel ensemble-based quantum information metric tensor, offering a more physically realizable optimization strategy for learning from quantum data. To improve computational efficiency and reduce sample complexity, we develop a highly sparse unbiased estimator of the novel metric tensor using a quantum circuit with gate complexity $\Theta(1)$ times that of the parameterized quantum circuit and single-shot quantum measurements. Our approach avoids the need for multiple copies of quantum data, thus adhering to the no-cloning principle. We provide a detailed theoretical foundation for our optimization method, along with an exponential convergence analysis. Additionally, we validate the utility of our method through a series of numerical experiments.

Semi-Supervised Generative Models for Disease Trajectories: A Case Study on Systemic Sclerosis

We propose a deep generative approach using latent temporal processes for modeling and holistically analyzing complex disease trajectories, with a particular focus on Systemic Sclerosis (SSc). We aim to learn temporal latent representations of the underlying generative process that explain the observed patient disease trajectories in an interpretable and comprehensive way. To enhance the interpretability of these latent temporal processes, we develop a semi-supervised approach for disentangling the latent space using established medical knowledge. By combining the generative approach with medical definitions of different characteristics of SSc, we facilitate the discovery of new aspects of the disease. We show that the learned temporal latent processes can be utilized for further data analysis and clinical hypothesis testing, including finding similar patients and clustering SSc patient trajectories into novel sub-types. Moreover, our method enables personalized online monitoring and prediction of multivariate time series with uncertainty quantification.

Guidelines for Augmentation Selection in Contrastive Learning for Time Series Classification

Self-supervised contrastive learning has become a key technique in deep learning, particularly in time series analysis, due to its ability to learn meaningful representations without explicit supervision. Augmentation is a critical component in contrastive learning, where different augmentations can dramatically impact performance, sometimes influencing accuracy by over 30%. However, the selection of augmentations is predominantly empirical which can be suboptimal, or grid searching that is time-consuming. In this paper, we establish a principled framework for selecting augmentations based on dataset characteristics such as trend and seasonality. Specifically, we construct 12 synthetic datasets incorporating trend, seasonality, and integration weights. We then evaluate the effectiveness of 8 different augmentations across these synthetic datasets, thereby inducing generalizable associations between time series characteristics and augmentation efficiency. Additionally, we evaluated the induced associations across 6 real-world datasets encompassing domains such as activity recognition, disease diagnosis, traffic monitoring, electricity usage, mechanical fault prognosis, and finance. These real-world datasets are diverse, covering a range from 1 to 12 channels, 2 to 10 classes, sequence lengths of 14 to 1280, and data frequencies from 250 Hz to daily intervals. The experimental results show that our proposed trend-seasonality-based augmentation recommendation algorithm can accurately identify the effective augmentations for a given time series dataset, achieving an average Recall@3 of 0.667, outperforming baselines. Our work provides guidance for studies employing contrastive learning in time series analysis, with wide-ranging applications. All the code, datasets, and analysis results will be released at https://github.com/DL4mHealth/TS-Contrastive-Augmentation-Recommendation.

Parameter inference from a non-stationary unknown process

Non-stationary systems are found throughout the world, from climate patterns under the influence of variation in carbon dioxide concentration, to brain dynamics driven by ascending neuromodulation. Accordingly, there is a need for methods to analyze non-stationary processes, and yet most time-series analysis methods that are used in practice, on important problems across science and industry, make the simplifying assumption of stationarity. One important problem in the analysis of non-stationary systems is the problem class that we refer to as Parameter Inference from a Non-stationary Unknown Process (PINUP). Given an observed time series, this involves inferring the parameters that drive non-stationarity of the time series, without requiring knowledge or inference of a mathematical model of the underlying system. Here we review and unify a diverse literature of algorithms for PINUP. We formulate the problem, and categorize the various algorithmic contributions. This synthesis will allow researchers to identify gaps in the literature and will enable systematic comparisons of different methods. We also demonstrate that the most common systems that existing methods are tested on - notably the non-stationary Lorenz process and logistic map - are surprisingly easy to perform well on using simple statistical features like windowed mean and variance, undermining the practice of using good performance on these systems as evidence of algorithmic performance. We then identify more challenging problems that many existing methods perform poorly on and which can be used to drive methodological advances in the field. Our results unify disjoint scientific contributions to analyzing non-stationary systems and suggest new directions for progress on the PINUP problem and the broader study of non-stationary phenomena.