TSI: A Multi-View Representation Learning Approach for Time Series Forecasting

As the growing demand for long sequence time-series forecasting in real-world applications, such as electricity consumption planning, the significance of time series forecasting becomes increasingly crucial across various domains. This is highlighted by recent advancements in representation learning within the field. This study introduces a novel multi-view approach for time series forecasting that innovatively integrates trend and seasonal representations with an Independent Component Analysis (ICA)-based representation. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods in representing complex and high-dimensional time series data, this research addresses the challenge by combining TS (trend and seasonality) and ICA (independent components) perspectives. This approach offers a holistic understanding of time series data, going beyond traditional models that often miss nuanced, nonlinear relationships. The efficacy of TSI model is demonstrated through comprehensive testing on various benchmark datasets, where it shows superior performance over current state-of-the-art models, particularly in multivariate forecasting. This method not only enhances the accuracy of forecasting but also contributes significantly to the field by providing a more in-depth understanding of time series data. The research which uses ICA for a view lays the groundwork for further exploration and methodological advancements in time series forecasting, opening new avenues for research and practical applications.

Compressing Recurrent Neural Networks for FPGA-accelerated Implementation in Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging

Fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLI) is an important technique for studying cellular environments and molecular interactions, but its real-time application is limited by slow data acquisition, which requires capturing large time-resolved images and complex post-processing using iterative fitting algorithms. Deep learning (DL) models enable real-time inference, but can be computationally demanding due to complex architectures and large matrix operations. This makes DL models ill-suited for direct implementation on field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based camera hardware. Model compression is thus crucial for practical deployment for real-time inference generation. In this work, we focus on compressing recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which are well-suited for FLI time-series data processing, to enable deployment on resource-constrained FPGA boards. We perform an empirical evaluation of various compression techniques, including weight reduction, knowledge distillation (KD), post-training quantization (PTQ), and quantization-aware training (QAT), to reduce model size and computational load while preserving inference accuracy. Our compressed RNN model, Seq2SeqLite, achieves a balance between computational efficiency and prediction accuracy, particularly at 8-bit precision. By applying KD, the model parameter size was reduced by 98\% while retaining performance, making it suitable for concurrent real-time FLI analysis on FPGA during data capture. This work represents a big step towards integrating hardware-accelerated real-time FLI analysis for fast biological processes.

An Introduction to Deep Survival Analysis Models for Predicting Time-to-Event Outcomes

Many applications involve reasoning about time durations before a critical event happens--also called time-to-event outcomes. When will a customer cancel a subscription, a coma patient wake up, or a convicted criminal reoffend? Time-to-event outcomes have been studied extensively within the field of survival analysis primarily by the statistical, medical, and reliability engineering communities, with textbooks already available in the 1970s and '80s. This monograph aims to provide a reasonably self-contained modern introduction to survival analysis. We focus on predicting time-to-event outcomes at the individual data point level with the help of neural networks. Our goal is to provide the reader with a working understanding of precisely what the basic time-to-event prediction problem is, how it differs from standard regression and classification, and how key "design patterns" have been used time after time to derive new time-to-event prediction models, from classical methods like the Cox proportional hazards model to modern deep learning approaches such as deep kernel Kaplan-Meier estimators and neural ordinary differential equation models. We further delve into two extensions of the basic time-to-event prediction setup: predicting which of several critical events will happen first along with the time until this earliest event happens (the competing risks setting), and predicting time-to-event outcomes given a time series that grows in length over time (the dynamic setting). We conclude with a discussion of a variety of topics such as fairness, causal reasoning, interpretability, and statistical guarantees. Our monograph comes with an accompanying code repository that implements every model and evaluation metric that we cover in detail.

From News to Forecast: Integrating Event Analysis in LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting with Reflection

This paper introduces a novel approach to enhance time series forecasting using Large Language Models (LLMs) and Generative Agents. With language as a medium, our method adaptively integrates various social events into forecasting models, aligning news content with time series fluctuations for enriched insights. Specifically, we utilize LLM-based agents to iteratively filter out irrelevant news and employ human-like reasoning and reflection to evaluate predictions. This enables our model to analyze complex events, such as unexpected incidents and shifts in social behavior, and continuously refine the selection logic of news and the robustness of the agent's output. By compiling selected news with time series data, we fine-tune the LLaMa2 pre-trained model. The results demonstrate significant improvements in forecasting accuracy and suggest a potential paradigm shift in time series forecasting by effectively harnessing unstructured news data.

Brain-JEPA: Brain Dynamics Foundation Model with Gradient Positioning and Spatiotemporal Masking

We introduce Brain-JEPA, a brain dynamics foundation model with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA). This pioneering model achieves state-of-the-art performance in demographic prediction, disease diagnosis/prognosis, and trait prediction through fine-tuning. Furthermore, it excels in off-the-shelf evaluations (e.g., linear probing) and demonstrates superior generalizability across different ethnic groups, surpassing the previous large model for brain activity significantly. Brain-JEPA incorporates two innovative techniques: Brain Gradient Positioning and Spatiotemporal Masking. Brain Gradient Positioning introduces a functional coordinate system for brain functional parcellation, enhancing the positional encoding of different Regions of Interest (ROIs). Spatiotemporal Masking, tailored to the unique characteristics of fMRI data, addresses the challenge of heterogeneous time-series patches. These methodologies enhance model performance and advance our understanding of the neural circuits underlying cognition. Overall, Brain-JEPA is paving the way to address pivotal questions of building brain functional coordinate system and masking brain activity at the AI-neuroscience interface, and setting a potentially new paradigm in brain activity analysis through downstream adaptation.

Machine Learning-based vs Deep Learning-based Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series for Spacecraft Attitude Sensors

In the framework of Failure Detection, Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) on spacecraft, new AI-based approaches are emerging in the state of the art to overcome the limitations commonly imposed by traditional threshold checking. The present research aims at characterizing two different approaches to the problem of stuck values detection in multivariate time series coming from spacecraft attitude sensors. The analysis reveals the performance differences in the two approaches, while commenting on their interpretability and generalization to different scenarios.

SEN12-WATER: A New Dataset for Hydrological Applications and its Benchmarking

Climate change and increasing droughts pose significant challenges to water resource management around the world. These problems lead to severe water shortages that threaten ecosystems, agriculture, and human communities. To advance the fight against these challenges, we present a new dataset, SEN12-WATER, along with a benchmark using a novel end-to-end Deep Learning (DL) framework for proactive drought-related analysis. The dataset, identified as a spatiotemporal datacube, integrates SAR polarization, elevation, slope, and multispectral optical bands. Our DL framework enables the analysis and estimation of water losses over time in reservoirs of interest, revealing significant insights into water dynamics for drought analysis by examining temporal changes in physical quantities such as water volume. Our methodology takes advantage of the multitemporal and multimodal characteristics of the proposed dataset, enabling robust generalization and advancing understanding of drought, contributing to climate change resilience and sustainable water resource management. The proposed framework involves, among the several components, speckle noise removal from SAR data, a water body segmentation through a U-Net architecture, the time series analysis, and the predictive capability of a Time-Distributed-Convolutional Neural Network (TD-CNN). Results are validated through ground truth data acquired on-ground via dedicated sensors and (tailored) metrics, such as Precision, Recall, Intersection over Union, Mean Squared Error, Structural Similarity Index Measure and Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio.

On the Power of Decision Trees in Auto-Regressive Language Modeling

Originally proposed for handling time series data, Auto-regressive Decision Trees (ARDTs) have not yet been explored for language modeling. This paper delves into both the theoretical and practical applications of ARDTs in this new context. We theoretically demonstrate that ARDTs can compute complex functions, such as simulating automata, Turing machines, and sparse circuits, by leveraging "chain-of-thought" computations. Our analysis provides bounds on the size, depth, and computational efficiency of ARDTs, highlighting their surprising computational power. Empirically, we train ARDTs on simple language generation tasks, showing that they can learn to generate coherent and grammatically correct text on par with a smaller Transformer model. Additionally, we show that ARDTs can be used on top of transformer representations to solve complex reasoning tasks. This research reveals the unique computational abilities of ARDTs, aiming to broaden the architectural diversity in language model development.

Enriched Functional Tree-Based Classifiers: A Novel Approach Leveraging Derivatives and Geometric Features

The positioning of this research falls within the scalar-on-function classification literature, a field of significant interest across various domains, particularly in statistics, mathematics, and computer science. This study introduces an advanced methodology for supervised classification by integrating Functional Data Analysis (FDA) with tree-based ensemble techniques for classifying high-dimensional time series. The proposed framework, Enriched Functional Tree-Based Classifiers (EFTCs), leverages derivative and geometric features, benefiting from the diversity inherent in ensemble methods to further enhance predictive performance and reduce variance. While our approach has been tested on the enrichment of Functional Classification Trees (FCTs), Functional K-NN (FKNN), Functional Random Forest (FRF), Functional XGBoost (FXGB), and Functional LightGBM (FLGBM), it could be extended to other tree-based and non-tree-based classifiers, with appropriate considerations emerging from this investigation. Through extensive experimental evaluations on seven real-world datasets and six simulated scenarios, this proposal demonstrates fascinating improvements over traditional approaches, providing new insights into the application of FDA in complex, high-dimensional learning problems.

HSTFL: A Heterogeneous Federated Learning Framework for Misaligned Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Spatiotemporal forecasting has emerged as an indispensable building block of diverse smart city applications, such as intelligent transportation and smart energy management. Recent advancements have uncovered that the performance of spatiotemporal forecasting can be significantly improved by integrating knowledge in geo-distributed time series data from different domains, \eg enhancing real-estate appraisal with human mobility data; joint taxi and bike demand predictions. While effective, existing approaches assume a centralized data collection and exploitation environment, overlooking the privacy and commercial interest concerns associated with data owned by different parties. In this paper, we investigate multi-party collaborative spatiotemporal forecasting without direct access to multi-source private data. However, this task is challenging due to 1) cross-domain feature heterogeneity and 2) cross-client geographical heterogeneity, where standard horizontal or vertical federated learning is inapplicable. To this end, we propose a Heterogeneous SpatioTemporal Federated Learning (HSTFL) framework to enable multiple clients to collaboratively harness geo-distributed time series data from different domains while preserving privacy. Specifically, we first devise vertical federated spatiotemporal representation learning to locally preserve spatiotemporal dependencies among individual participants and generate effective representations for heterogeneous data. Then we propose a cross-client virtual node alignment block to incorporate cross-client spatiotemporal dependencies via a multi-level knowledge fusion scheme. Extensive privacy analysis and experimental evaluations demonstrate that HSTFL not only effectively resists inference attacks but also provides a significant improvement against various baselines.