Time series analysis comprises statistical methods for analyzing a sequence of data points collected over an interval of time to identify interesting patterns and trends.
Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) is an important 5G network architecture enabling flexible communication with adaptive strategies for different verticals. However, testing for O-RAN deployments involve massive volumes of time-series data (e.g., key performance indicators), creating critical challenges for scalable, unsupervised monitoring without labels or high computational overhead. To address this, we present ESN-DAGMM, a lightweight adaptation of the Deep Autoencoding Gaussian Mixture Model (DAGMM) framework for time series analysis. Our model utilizes an Echo State Network (ESN) to efficiently model temporal dependencies, proving effective in O-RAN networks where training samples are highly limited. Combined with DAGMM's integratation of dimensionality reduction and density estimation, we present a scalable framework for unsupervised monitoring of high volume network telemetry. When trained on only 10% of an O-RAN video-streaming dataset, ESN-DAGMM achieved on average 269.59% higher quality clustering than baselines under identical conditions, all while maintaining competitive reconstruction error. By extending DAGMM to capture temporal dynamics, ESN-DAGMM offers a practical solution for time-series analysis using very limited training samples, outperforming baselines and enabling operator's control over the clustering-reconstruction trade-off.
Diabetes devices, including Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM), Smart Insulin Pens, and Automated Insulin Delivery systems, generate rich time-series data widely used in research and machine learning. However, inconsistent data formats across sources hinder sharing, integration, and analysis. We present DIAX (DIAbetes eXchange), a standardized JSON-based format for unifying diabetes time-series data, including CGM, insulin, and meal signals. DIAX promotes interoperability, reproducibility, and extensibility, particularly for machine learning applications. An open-source repository provides tools for dataset conversion, cross-format compatibility, visualization, and community contributions. DIAX is a translational resource, not a data host, ensuring flexibility without imposing data-sharing constraints. Currently, DIAX is compatible with other standardization efforts and supports major datasets (DCLP3, DCLP5, IOBP2, PEDAP, T1Dexi, Loop), totaling over 10 million patient-hours of data. https://github.com/Center-for-Diabetes-Technology/DIAX
Large Language Model (LLM) agents offer a potentially-transformative path forward for generative social science but face a critical crisis of validity. Current simulation evaluation methodologies suffer from the "stopped clock" problem: they confirm that a simulation reached the correct final outcome while ignoring whether the trajectory leading to it was sociologically plausible. Because the internal reasoning of LLMs is opaque, verifying the "black box" of social mechanisms remains a persistent challenge. In this paper, we introduce SLALOM (Simulation Lifecycle Analysis via Longitudinal Observation Metrics), a framework that shifts validation from outcome verification to process fidelity. Drawing on Pattern-Oriented Modeling (POM), SLALOM treats social phenomena as multivariate time series that must traverse specific SLALOM gates, or intermediate waypoint constraints representing distinct phases. By utilizing Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to align simulated trajectories with empirical ground truth, SLALOM offers a quantitative metric to assess structural realism, helping to differentiate plausible social dynamics from stochastic noise and contributing to more robust policy simulation standards.
We resolve a long-standing open question, about the existence of a constant-factor approximation algorithm for the average-case \textsc{Decision Tree} problem with uniform probability distribution over the hypotheses. We answer the question in the affirmative by providing a simple polynomial-time algorithm with approximation ratio of $\frac{2}{1-\sqrt{(e+1)/(2e)}}+ε<11.57$. This improves upon the currently best-known, greedy algorithm which achieves $O(\log n/{\log\log n})$-approximation. The first key ingredient in our analysis is the usage of a decomposition technique known from problems related to \textsc{Hierarchical Clustering} [SODA '17, WALCOM '26], which allows us to decompose the optimal decision tree into a series of objects called separating subfamilies. The second crucial idea is to reduce the subproblem of finding a \textsc{Separating Subfamily} to an instance of the \textsc{Maximum Coverage} problem. To do so, we analyze the properties of cutting cliques into small pieces, which represent pairs of hypotheses to be separated. This allows us to obtain a good approximation for the \textsc{Separating Subfamily} problem, which then enables the design of the approximation algorithm for the original problem.
Open-set 3D macromolecule detection in cryogenic electron tomography eliminates the need for target-specific model retraining. However, strict VRAM constraints prohibit processing an entire 3D tomogram, forcing current methods to rely on slow sliding-window inference over extracted subvolumes. To overcome this, we propose FullTilt, an end-to-end framework that redefines 3D detection by operating directly on aligned 2D tilt-series. Because a tilt-series contains significantly fewer images than slices in a reconstructed tomogram, FullTilt eliminates redundant volumetric computation, accelerating inference by orders of magnitude. To process the entire tilt-series simultaneously, we introduce a tilt-series encoder to efficiently fuse cross-view information. We further propose a multiclass visual prompt encoder for flexible prompting, a tilt-aware query initializer to effectively anchor 3D queries, and an auxiliary geometric primitives module to enhance the model's understanding of multi-view geometry while improving robustness to adverse imaging artifacts. Extensive evaluations on three real-world datasets demonstrate that FullTilt achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance while drastically reducing runtime and VRAM requirements, paving the way for rapid, large-scale visual proteomics analysis. All code and data will be publicly available upon publication.
We present a quantum-inspired ARIMA methodology that integrates quantum-assisted lag discovery with \emph{fixed-configuration} variational quantum circuits (VQCs) for parameter estimation and weak-lag refinement. Differencing and candidate lags are identified via swap-test-driven quantum autocorrelation (QACF) and quantum partial autocorrelation (QPACF), with a delayed-matrix construction that aligns quantum projections to time-domain regressors, followed by standard information-criterion parsimony. Given the screened orders $(p,d,q)$, we retain a fixed VQC ansatz, optimizer, and training budget, preventing hyperparameter leakage, and deploy the circuit in two estimation roles: VQC-AR for autoregressive coefficients and VQC-MA for moving-average coefficients. Between screening and estimation, a lightweight VQC weak-lag refinement re-weights or prunes screened AR lags without altering $(p,d,q)$. Across environmental and industrial datasets, we perform rolling-origin evaluations against automated classical ARIMA, reporting out-of-sample mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and Diebold--Mariano tests on MSE and MAE. Empirically, the seven quantum contributions -- (1) differencing selection, (2) QACF, (3) QPACF, (4) swap-test primitives with delayed-matrix construction, (5) VQC-AR, (6) VQC weak-lag refinement, and (7) VQC-MA -- collectively reduce meta-optimization overhead and make explicit where quantum effects enter order discovery, lag refinement, and AR/MA parameter estimation.
This paper presents a Robust Adaptive Backstepping Impedance Control (RABIC) strategy for robots operating in contact-rich and uncertain environments. The proposed control strategy considers the complete coupled dynamics of the system and explicitly accounts for key sources of uncertainty, including external disturbances and unmodeled dynamics, while not requiring the robot's dynamic parameters in implementation. We propose a backstepping-based adaptive impedance control scheme for the inner loop to track the reference impedance model. To handle uncertainties, we employ a Taylor series-based estimator for system dynamics and an adaptive estimator for determining the upper bound of external forces. Stability analysis demonstrates the semi-global practical finite-time stability of the overall system. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulated mobile manipulator scenario and experimental evaluations on a real Franka Emika Panda robot were conducted. The proposed approach exhibits safer performance compared to PD control while ensuring trajectory tracking and force monitoring. Overall, the RABIC framework provides a solid basis for future research on adaptive and learning-based impedance control for coupled mobile and fixed serially linked manipulators.
In this paper, we propose a novel framework for non-stationary time-series analysis that replaces conventional correlation-based statistics with direct estimation of statistical dependence in the normalized joint density of input and target signals, the cross density ratio (CDR). Unlike windowed correlation estimates, this measure is independent of sample order and robust to regime changes. The method builds on the functional maximal correlation algorithm (FMCA), which constructs a projection space by decomposing the eigenspectrum of the CDR. Multiscale features from this eigenspace are classified using a lightweight single-hidden-layer perceptron. On the TI-46 digit speech corpus, our approach outperforms hidden Markov models (HMMs) and state-of-the-art spiking neural networks, achieving higher accuracy with fewer than 10 layers and a storage footprint under 5 MB.
This paper presents an indirect data-driven output feedback controller synthesis for nonlinear systems, leveraging Structured State-space Models (SSMs) as surrogate models. SSMs have emerged as a compelling alternative in modelling time-series data and dynamical systems. They can capture long-term dependencies while maintaining linear computational complexity with respect to the sequence length, in comparison to the quadratic complexity of Transformer-based architectures. The contributions of this work are threefold. We provide the first analysis of controllability and observability of SSMs, which leads to scalable control design via Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs) that leverage contraction theory. Moreover, a separation principle for SSMs is established, enabling the independent design of observers and state-feedback controllers while preserving the exponential stability of the closed-loop system. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a numerical example, showcasing nonlinear system identification and the synthesis of an output feedback controller.
We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. $\sim40.2\%\to56.6\%)$, validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io