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"Time Series Analysis": models, code, and papers

Highly comparative time-series analysis: The empirical structure of time series and their methods

Apr 03, 2013
Ben D. Fulcher, Max A. Little, Nick S. Jones

The process of collecting and organizing sets of observations represents a common theme throughout the history of science. However, despite the ubiquity of scientists measuring, recording, and analyzing the dynamics of different processes, an extensive organization of scientific time-series data and analysis methods has never been performed. Addressing this, annotated collections of over 35 000 real-world and model-generated time series and over 9000 time-series analysis algorithms are analyzed in this work. We introduce reduced representations of both time series, in terms of their properties measured by diverse scientific methods, and of time-series analysis methods, in terms of their behaviour on empirical time series, and use them to organize these interdisciplinary resources. This new approach to comparing across diverse scientific data and methods allows us to organize time-series datasets automatically according to their properties, retrieve alternatives to particular analysis methods developed in other scientific disciplines, and automate the selection of useful methods for time-series classification and regression tasks. The broad scientific utility of these tools is demonstrated on datasets of electroencephalograms, self-affine time series, heart beat intervals, speech signals, and others, in each case contributing novel analysis techniques to the existing literature. Highly comparative techniques that compare across an interdisciplinary literature can thus be used to guide more focused research in time-series analysis for applications across the scientific disciplines.

* J. R. Soc. Interface vol. 10 no. 83 20130048 (2013) 

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Feature-based time-series analysis

Oct 02, 2017
Ben D. Fulcher

This work presents an introduction to feature-based time-series analysis. The time series as a data type is first described, along with an overview of the interdisciplinary time-series analysis literature. I then summarize the range of feature-based representations for time series that have been developed to aid interpretable insights into time-series structure. Particular emphasis is given to emerging research that facilitates wide comparison of feature-based representations that allow us to understand the properties of a time-series dataset that make it suited to a particular feature-based representation or analysis algorithm. The future of time-series analysis is likely to embrace approaches that exploit machine learning methods to partially automate human learning to aid understanding of the complex dynamical patterns in the time series we measure from the world.

* 28 pages, 9 figures 

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Multilevel Wavelet Decomposition Network for Interpretable Time Series Analysis

Jun 23, 2018
Jingyuan Wang, Ze Wang, Jianfeng Li, Junjie Wu

Recent years have witnessed the unprecedented rising of time series from almost all kindes of academic and industrial fields. Various types of deep neural network models have been introduced to time series analysis, but the important frequency information is yet lack of effective modeling. In light of this, in this paper we propose a wavelet-based neural network structure called multilevel Wavelet Decomposition Network (mWDN) for building frequency-aware deep learning models for time series analysis. mWDN preserves the advantage of multilevel discrete wavelet decomposition in frequency learning while enables the fine-tuning of all parameters under a deep neural network framework. Based on mWDN, we further propose two deep learning models called Residual Classification Flow (RCF) and multi-frequecy Long Short-Term Memory (mLSTM) for time series classification and forecasting, respectively. The two models take all or partial mWDN decomposed sub-series in different frequencies as input, and resort to the back propagation algorithm to learn all the parameters globally, which enables seamless embedding of wavelet-based frequency analysis into deep learning frameworks. Extensive experiments on 40 UCR datasets and a real-world user volume dataset demonstrate the excellent performance of our time series models based on mWDN. In particular, we propose an importance analysis method to mWDN based models, which successfully identifies those time-series elements and mWDN layers that are crucially important to time series analysis. This indeed indicates the interpretability advantage of mWDN, and can be viewed as an indepth exploration to interpretable deep learning.


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Meta-Learning for Koopman Spectral Analysis with Short Time-series

Feb 09, 2021
Tomoharu Iwata, Yoshinobu Kawahara

Koopman spectral analysis has attracted attention for nonlinear dynamical systems since we can analyze nonlinear dynamics with a linear regime by embedding data into a Koopman space by a nonlinear function. For the analysis, we need to find appropriate embedding functions. Although several neural network-based methods have been proposed for learning embedding functions, existing methods require long time-series for training neural networks. This limitation prohibits performing Koopman spectral analysis in applications where only short time-series are available. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method for estimating embedding functions from unseen short time-series by exploiting knowledge learned from related but different time-series. With the proposed method, a representation of a given short time-series is obtained by a bidirectional LSTM for extracting its properties. The embedding function of the short time-series is modeled by a neural network that depends on the time-series representation. By sharing the LSTM and neural networks across multiple time-series, we can learn common knowledge from different time-series while modeling time-series-specific embedding functions with the time-series representation. Our model is trained such that the expected test prediction error is minimized with the episodic training framework. We experimentally demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better performance in terms of eigenvalue estimation and future prediction than existing methods.


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Granger Mediation Analysis of Multiple Time Series with an Application to fMRI

Sep 15, 2017
Yi Zhao, Xi Luo

It becomes increasingly popular to perform mediation analysis for complex data from sophisticated experimental studies. In this paper, we present Granger Mediation Analysis (GMA), a new framework for causal mediation analysis of multiple time series. This framework is motivated by a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment where we are interested in estimating the mediation effects between a randomized stimulus time series and brain activity time series from two brain regions. The stable unit treatment assumption for causal mediation analysis is thus unrealistic for this type of time series data. To address this challenge, our framework integrates two types of models: causal mediation analysis across the variables and vector autoregressive models across the temporal observations. We further extend this framework to handle multilevel data to address individual variability and correlated errors between the mediator and the outcome variables. These models not only provide valid causal mediation for time series data but also model the causal dynamics across time. We show that the modeling parameters in our models are identifiable, and we develop computationally efficient methods to maximize the likelihood-based optimization criteria. Simulation studies show that our method reduces the estimation bias and improve statistical power, compared to existing approaches. On a real fMRI data set, our approach not only infers the causal effects of brain pathways but accurately captures the feedback effect of the outcome region on the mediator region.

* 59 pages. Presented at the 2017 ENAR, JSM, and other meetings 

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Time Series Analysis via Matrix Estimation

Aug 24, 2018
Anish Agarwal, Muhammad Jehangir Amjad, Devavrat Shah, Dennis Shen

We propose an algorithm to impute and forecast a time series by transforming the observed time series into a matrix, utilizing matrix estimation to recover missing values and de-noise observed entries, and performing linear regression to make predictions. At the core of our analysis is a representation result, which states that for a large model class, the transformed matrix obtained from the time series via our algorithm is (approximately) low-rank. This, in effect, generalizes the widely used Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) in literature, and allows us to establish a rigorous link between time series analysis and matrix estimation. The key is to construct a matrix with non-overlapping entries rather than with the Hankel matrix as done in the literature, including in SSA. We provide finite sample analysis for imputation and prediction leading to the asymptotic consistency of our method. A salient feature of our algorithm is that it is model agnostic both with respect to the underlying time dynamics as well as the noise model in the observations. Being noise agnostic makes our algorithm applicable to the setting where the state is hidden and we only have access to its noisy observations a la a Hidden Markov Model, e.g., observing a Poisson process with a time-varying parameter without knowing that the process is Poisson, but still recovering the time-varying parameter accurately. As part of the forecasting algorithm, an important task is to perform regression with noisy observations of the features a la an error- in-variable regression. In essence, our approach suggests a matrix estimation based method for such a setting, which could be of interest in its own right. Through synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms standard software packages (including R libraries) in the presence of missing data as well as high levels of noise.


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Time Series Analysis of Electricity Price and Demand to Find Cyber-attacks using Stationary Analysis

Aug 20, 2019
Mohsen Rakhshandehroo, Mohammad Rajabdorri

With developing of computation tools in the last years, data analysis methods to find insightful information are becoming more common among industries and researchers. This paper is the first part of the times series analysis of New England electricity price and demand to find anomaly in the data. In this paper time-series stationary criteria to prepare data for further times-series related analysis is investigated. Three main analysis are conducted in this paper, including moving average, moving standard deviation and augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The data used in this paper is New England big data from 9 different operational zones. For each zone, 4 different variables including day-ahead (DA) electricity demand, price and real-time (RT) electricity demand price are considered.

* 9pages, 13 figs, 4 tables 

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Gated Res2Net for Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Sep 19, 2020
Chao Yang, Mingxing Jiang, Zhongwen Guo, Yuan Liu

Multivariate time series analysis is an important problem in data mining because of its widespread applications. With the increase of time series data available for training, implementing deep neural networks in the field of time series analysis is becoming common. Res2Net, a recently proposed backbone, can further improve the state-of-the-art networks as it improves the multi-scale representation ability through connecting different groups of filters. However, Res2Net ignores the correlations of the feature maps and lacks the control on the information interaction process. To address that problem, in this paper, we propose a backbone convolutional neural network based on the thought of gated mechanism and Res2Net, namely Gated Res2Net (GRes2Net), for multivariate time series analysis. The hierarchical residual-like connections are influenced by gates whose values are calculated based on the original feature maps, the previous output feature maps and the next input feature maps thus considering the correlations between the feature maps more effectively. Through the utilization of gated mechanism, the network can control the process of information sending hence can better capture and utilize the both the temporal information and the correlations between the feature maps. We evaluate the GRes2Net on four multivariate time series datasets including two classification datasets and two forecasting datasets. The results demonstrate that GRes2Net have better performances over the state-of-the-art methods thus indicating the superiority


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Time Series Analysis via Network Science: Concepts and Algorithms

Oct 11, 2021
Vanessa Freitas Silva, Maria Eduarda Silva, Pedro Ribeiro, Fernando Silva

There is nowadays a constant flux of data being generated and collected in all types of real world systems. These data sets are often indexed by time, space or both requiring appropriate approaches to analyze the data. In univariate settings, time series analysis is a mature and solid field. However, in multivariate contexts, time series analysis still presents many limitations. In order to address these issues, the last decade has brought approaches based on network science. These methods involve transforming an initial time series data set into one or more networks, which can be analyzed in depth to provide insight into the original time series. This review provides a comprehensive overview of existing mapping methods for transforming time series into networks for a wide audience of researchers and practitioners in machine learning, data mining and time series. Our main contribution is a structured review of existing methodologies, identifying their main characteristics and their differences. We describe the main conceptual approaches, provide authoritative references and give insight into their advantages and limitations in a unified notation and language. We first describe the case of univariate time series, which can be mapped to single layer networks, and we divide the current mappings based on the underlying concept: visibility, transition and proximity. We then proceed with multivariate time series discussing both single layer and multiple layer approaches. Although still very recent, this research area has much potential and with this survey we intend to pave the way for future research on the topic.


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Deep Learning for Time-Series Analysis

Jan 07, 2017
John Cristian Borges Gamboa

In many real-world application, e.g., speech recognition or sleep stage classification, data are captured over the course of time, constituting a Time-Series. Time-Series often contain temporal dependencies that cause two otherwise identical points of time to belong to different classes or predict different behavior. This characteristic generally increases the difficulty of analysing them. Existing techniques often depended on hand-crafted features that were expensive to create and required expert knowledge of the field. With the advent of Deep Learning new models of unsupervised learning of features for Time-series analysis and forecast have been developed. Such new developments are the topic of this paper: a review of the main Deep Learning techniques is presented, and some applications on Time-Series analysis are summaried. The results make it clear that Deep Learning has a lot to contribute to the field.

* Written as part of the Seminar on Collaborative Intelligence in the TU Kaiserslautern. January 2016 

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A complex network approach to time series analysis with application in diagnosis of neuromuscular disorders

Aug 16, 2021
Samaneh Samiei, Nasser Ghadiri, Behnaz Ansari

Electromyography (EMG) refers to a biomedical signal indicating neuromuscular activity and muscle morphology. Experts accurately diagnose neuromuscular disorders using this time series. Modern data analysis techniques have recently led to introducing novel approaches for mapping time series data to graphs and complex networks with applications in diverse fields, including medicine. The resulting networks develop a completely different visual acuity that can be used to complement physician findings of time series. This can lead to a more enriched analysis, reduced error, more accurate diagnosis of the disease, and increased accuracy and speed of the treatment process. The mapping process may cause the loss of essential data from the time series and not retain all the time series features. As a result, achieving an approach that can provide a good representation of the time series while maintaining essential features is crucial. This paper proposes a new approach to network development named GraphTS to overcome the limited accuracy of existing methods through EMG time series using the visibility graph method. For this purpose, EMG signals are pre-processed and mapped to a complex network by a standard visibility graph algorithm. The resulting networks can differentiate between healthy and patient samples. In the next step, the properties of the developed networks are given in the form of a feature matrix as input to classifiers after extracting optimal features. Performance evaluation of the proposed approach with deep neural network shows 99.30% accuracy for training data and 99.18% for test data. Therefore, in addition to enriched network representation and covering the features of time series for healthy, myopathy, and neuropathy EMG, the proposed technique improves accuracy, precision, recall, and F-score.


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A Recurrent Probabilistic Neural Network with Dimensionality Reduction Based on Time-series Discriminant Component Analysis

Nov 14, 2019
Hideaki Hayashi, Taro Shibanoki, Keisuke Shima, Yuichi Kurita, Toshio Tsuji

This paper proposes a probabilistic neural network developed on the basis of time-series discriminant component analysis (TSDCA) that can be used to classify high-dimensional time-series patterns. TSDCA involves the compression of high-dimensional time series into a lower-dimensional space using a set of orthogonal transformations and the calculation of posterior probabilities based on a continuous-density hidden Markov model with a Gaussian mixture model expressed in the reduced-dimensional space. The analysis can be incorporated into a neural network, which is named a time-series discriminant component network (TSDCN), so that parameters of dimensionality reduction and classification can be obtained simultaneously as network coefficients according to a backpropagation through time-based learning algorithm with the Lagrange multiplier method. The TSDCN is considered to enable high-accuracy classification of high-dimensional time-series patterns and to reduce the computation time taken for network training. The validity of the TSDCN is demonstrated for high-dimensional artificial data and EEG signals in the experiments conducted during the study.

* IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems, Vol. 26, No.12, pp. 3021-3033, 2015 
* Published in IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems 

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A Consistent Independence Test for Multivariate Time-Series

Aug 18, 2019
Ronak Mehta, Cencheng Shen, Ting Xu, Joghua T. Vogelstein

A fundamental problem in statistical data analysis is testing whether two phenomena are related. When the phenomena in question are time series, many challenges emerge. The first is defining a dependence measure between time series at the population level, as well as a sample level test statistic. The second is computing or estimating the distribution of this test statistic under the null, as the permutation test procedure is invalid for most time series structures. This work aims to address these challenges by combining distance correlation and multiscale graph correlation (MGC) from independence testing literature and block permutation testing from time series analysis. Two hypothesis tests for testing the independence of time series are proposed. These procedures also characterize whether the dependence relationship between the series is linear or nonlinear, and the time lag at which this dependence is maximized. For strictly stationary auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) processes, the proposed independence tests are proven valid and consistent. Finally, neural connectivity in the brain is analyzed using fMRI data, revealing linear dependence of signals within the visual network and default mode network, and nonlinear relationships in other regions. This work opens up new theoretical and practical directions for many modern time series analysis problems.

* 21 pages, 6 figures 

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Analysis and Comparison of Time Series of Power Consumption of Sistan and Tehran distribution networks

Jul 07, 2021
Masoud Safarishaal, Saeid Safarishaal, Elahe Safarishaal

Data presented in the form of time series as its analysis and applications recently have become increasingly important in different areas and domains. Prediction and classification of time-series data play a vital role in multiple fields. In this paper, the time series analysis related to power consumption at 12 o'clock every day in the period of 2012 to 2014 has been compared for two distribution networks of Sistan and one of the four networks of Tehran. By analyzing the power consumption of these two networks, a comparison can be made between these two regions in terms of development and climate difference and the impact of social, industrial and environmental phenomena. The reason for choosing these two networks was to compare a deprived area with an area in the capital. CRP tool software and toolkits have been used to analyze and compare time series, and various tools have been used to compare two time series.

* 9 page 9 figures 

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The Influence of Global Constraints on Similarity Measures for Time-Series Databases

Dec 25, 2013
Vladimir Kurbalija, Miloš Radovanović, Zoltan Geler, Mirjana Ivanović

A time series consists of a series of values or events obtained over repeated measurements in time. Analysis of time series represents and important tool in many application areas, such as stock market analysis, process and quality control, observation of natural phenomena, medical treatments, etc. A vital component in many types of time-series analysis is the choice of an appropriate distance/similarity measure. Numerous measures have been proposed to date, with the most successful ones based on dynamic programming. Being of quadratic time complexity, however, global constraints are often employed to limit the search space in the matrix during the dynamic programming procedure, in order to speed up computation. Furthermore, it has been reported that such constrained measures can also achieve better accuracy. In this paper, we investigate two representative time-series distance/similarity measures based on dynamic programming, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and Longest Common Subsequence (LCS), and the effects of global constraints on them. Through extensive experiments on a large number of time-series data sets, we demonstrate how global constrains can significantly reduce the computation time of DTW and LCS. We also show that, if the constraint parameter is tight enough (less than 10-15% of time-series length), the constrained measure becomes significantly different from its unconstrained counterpart, in the sense of producing qualitatively different 1-nearest neighbor graphs. This observation explains the potential for accuracy gains when using constrained measures, highlighting the need for careful tuning of constraint parameters in order to achieve a good trade-off between speed and accuracy.


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Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series Using Locally Coupled Gaussian Processes

Oct 31, 2016
Luca Ambrogioni, Eric Maris

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method for analyzing time series. In this paper, we introduce a new framework for analyzing nonstationary time series using locally stationary Gaussian process analysis with parameters that are coupled through a hidden Markov model. The main advantage of this framework is that arbitrary complex nonstationary covariance functions can be obtained by combining simpler stationary building blocks whose hidden parameters can be estimated in closed-form. We demonstrate the flexibility of the method by analyzing two examples of synthetic nonstationary signals: oscillations with time varying frequency and time series with two dynamical states. Finally, we report an example application on real magnetoencephalographic measurements of brain activity.


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Clustering Activity-Travel Behavior Time Series using Topological Data Analysis

Jul 17, 2019
Renjie Chen, Jingyue Zhang, Nalini Ravishanker, Karthik Konduri

Over the last few years, traffic data has been exploding and the transportation discipline has entered the era of big data. It brings out new opportunities for doing data-driven analysis, but it also challenges traditional analytic methods. This paper proposes a new Divide and Combine based approach to do K means clustering on activity-travel behavior time series using features that are derived using tools in Time Series Analysis and Topological Data Analysis. Clustering data from five waves of the National Household Travel Survey ranging from 1990 to 2017 suggests that activity-travel patterns of individuals over the last three decades can be grouped into three clusters. Results also provide evidence in support of recent claims about differences in activity-travel patterns of different survey cohorts. The proposed method is generally applicable and is not limited only to activity-travel behavior analysis in transportation studies. Driving behavior, travel mode choice, household vehicle ownership, when being characterized as categorical time series, can all be analyzed using the proposed method.


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Forecasting with time series imaging

Apr 17, 2019
Xixi Li, Yanfei Kang, Feng Li

Feature-based time series representation has attracted substantial attention in a wide range of time series analysis methods. Recently, the use of time series features for forecast model selection and model averaging has been an emerging research focus in the forecasting community. Nonetheless, most of the existing approaches depend on the manual choice of an appropriate set of features. Exploiting machine learning methods to automatically extract features from time series becomes crucially important in the state-of-the-art time series analysis. In this paper, we introduce an automated approach to extract time series features based on images. Time series are first transformed into recurrence images, from which local features can be extracted using computer vision algorithms. The extracted features are used for forecast model selection and model averaging. Our experiments show that forecasting based on automatically extracted features, with less human intervention and a more comprehensive view of the raw time series data, yields comparable performances with the top best methods proposed in the largest forecasting competition M4.


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Temporal Feature Selection on Networked Time Series

Dec 22, 2016
Haishuai Wang, Jia Wu, Peng Zhang, Chengqi Zhang

This paper formulates the problem of learning discriminative features (\textit{i.e.,} segments) from networked time series data considering the linked information among time series. For example, social network users are considered to be social sensors that continuously generate social signals (tweets) represented as a time series. The discriminative segments are often referred to as \emph{shapelets} in a time series. Extracting shapelets for time series classification has been widely studied. However, existing works on shapelet selection assume that the time series are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). This assumption restricts their applications to social networked time series analysis, since a user's actions can be correlated to his/her social affiliations. In this paper we propose a new Network Regularized Least Squares (NetRLS) feature selection model that combines typical time series data and user network data for analysis. Experiments on real-world networked time series Twitter and DBLP data demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. NetRLS performs better than LTS, the state-of-the-art time series feature selection approach, on real-world data.

* submitted to a blind review journal 

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