STRGCN: Capturing Asynchronous Spatio-Temporal Dependencies for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) are prevalent in real-world applications across many fields, where varying sensor frequencies and asynchronous measurements pose significant modeling challenges. Existing solutions often rely on a pre-alignment strategy to normalize data, which can distort intrinsic patterns and escalate computational and memory demands. Addressing these limitations, we introduce STRGCN, a Spatio-Temporal Relational Graph Convolutional Network that avoids pre-alignment and directly captures the complex interdependencies in IMTS by representing them as a fully connected graph. Each observation is represented as a node, allowing the model to effectively handle misaligned timestamps by mapping all inter-node relationships, thus faithfully preserving the asynchronous nature of the data. Moreover, we enhance this model with a hierarchical ``Sandwich'' structure that strategically aggregates nodes to optimize graph embeddings, reducing computational overhead while maintaining detailed local and global context. Extensive experiments on four public datasets demonstrate that STRGCN achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, competitive memory usage and training speed.

Towards Cross-Modality Modeling for Time Series Analytics: A Survey in the LLM Era

The proliferation of edge devices has generated an unprecedented volume of time series data across different domains, motivating various well-customized methods. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a new paradigm for time series analytics by leveraging the shared sequential nature of textual data and time series. However, a fundamental cross-modality gap between time series and LLMs exists, as LLMs are pre-trained on textual corpora and are not inherently optimized for time series. Many recent proposals are designed to address this issue. In this survey, we provide an up-to-date overview of LLMs-based cross-modality modeling for time series analytics. We first introduce a taxonomy that classifies existing approaches into four groups based on the type of textual data employed for time series modeling. We then summarize key cross-modality strategies, e.g., alignment and fusion, and discuss their applications across a range of downstream tasks. Furthermore, we conduct experiments on multimodal datasets from different application domains to investigate effective combinations of textual data and cross-modality strategies for enhancing time series analytics. Finally, we suggest several promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for a range of professionals, researchers, and practitioners interested in LLM-based time series modeling.

T2S: High-resolution Time Series Generation with Text-to-Series Diffusion Models

Text-to-Time Series generation holds significant potential to address challenges such as data sparsity, imbalance, and limited availability of multimodal time series datasets across domains. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in Text-to-X (e.g., vision and audio data) generation, their use in time series generation remains in its nascent stages. Existing approaches face two critical limitations: (1) the lack of systematic exploration of general-proposed time series captions, which are often domain-specific and struggle with generalization; and (2) the inability to generate time series of arbitrary lengths, limiting their applicability to real-world scenarios. In this work, we first categorize time series captions into three levels: point-level, fragment-level, and instance-level. Additionally, we introduce a new fragment-level dataset containing over 600,000 high-resolution time series-text pairs. Second, we propose Text-to-Series (T2S), a diffusion-based framework that bridges the gap between natural language and time series in a domain-agnostic manner. T2S employs a length-adaptive variational autoencoder to encode time series of varying lengths into consistent latent embeddings. On top of that, T2S effectively aligns textual representations with latent embeddings by utilizing Flow Matching and employing Diffusion Transformer as the denoiser. We train T2S in an interleaved paradigm across multiple lengths, allowing it to generate sequences of any desired length. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that T2S achieves state-of-the-art performance across 13 datasets spanning 12 domains.

FreCT: Frequency-augmented Convolutional Transformer for Robust Time Series Anomaly Detection

Time series anomaly detection is critical for system monitoring and risk identification, across various domains, such as finance and healthcare. However, for most reconstruction-based approaches, detecting anomalies remains a challenge due to the complexity of sequential patterns in time series data. On the one hand, reconstruction-based techniques are susceptible to computational deviation stemming from anomalies, which can lead to impure representations of normal sequence patterns. On the other hand, they often focus on the time-domain dependencies of time series, while ignoring the alignment of frequency information beyond the time domain. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Frequency-augmented Convolutional Transformer (FreCT). FreCT utilizes patch operations to generate contrastive views and employs an improved Transformer architecture integrated with a convolution module to capture long-term dependencies while preserving local topology information. The introduced frequency analysis based on Fourier transformation could enhance the model's ability to capture crucial characteristics beyond the time domain. To protect the training quality from anomalies and improve the robustness, FreCT deploys stop-gradient Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and absolute error to optimize consistency information in both time and frequency domains. Extensive experiments on four public datasets demonstrate that FreCT outperforms existing methods in identifying anomalies.

Dual-Forecaster: A Multimodal Time Series Model Integrating Descriptive and Predictive Texts

Most existing single-modal time series models rely solely on numerical series, which suffer from the limitations imposed by insufficient information. Recent studies have revealed that multimodal models can address the core issue by integrating textual information. However, these models focus on either historical or future textual information, overlooking the unique contributions each plays in time series forecasting. Besides, these models fail to grasp the intricate relationships between textual and time series data, constrained by their moderate capacity for multimodal comprehension. To tackle these challenges, we propose Dual-Forecaster, a pioneering multimodal time series model that combines both descriptively historical textual information and predictive textual insights, leveraging advanced multimodal comprehension capability empowered by three well-designed cross-modality alignment techniques. Our comprehensive evaluations on fifteen multimodal time series datasets demonstrate that Dual-Forecaster is a distinctly effective multimodal time series model that outperforms or is comparable to other state-of-the-art models, highlighting the superiority of integrating textual information for time series forecasting. This work opens new avenues in the integration of textual information with numerical time series data for multimodal time series analysis.

Multimodal Conditioned Diffusive Time Series Forecasting

Diffusion models achieve remarkable success in processing images and text, and have been extended to special domains such as time series forecasting (TSF). Existing diffusion-based approaches for TSF primarily focus on modeling single-modality numerical sequences, overlooking the rich multimodal information in time series data. To effectively leverage such information for prediction, we propose a multimodal conditioned diffusion model for TSF, namely, MCD-TSF, to jointly utilize timestamps and texts as extra guidance for time series modeling, especially for forecasting. Specifically, Timestamps are combined with time series to establish temporal and semantic correlations among different data points when aggregating information along the temporal dimension. Texts serve as supplementary descriptions of time series' history, and adaptively aligned with data points as well as dynamically controlled in a classifier-free manner. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmark datasets across eight domains demonstrate that the proposed MCD-TSF model achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Anyprefer: An Agentic Framework for Preference Data Synthesis

High-quality preference data is essential for aligning foundation models with human values through preference learning. However, manual annotation of such data is often time-consuming and costly. Recent methods often adopt a self-rewarding approach, where the target model generates and annotates its own preference data, but this can lead to inaccuracies since the reward model shares weights with the target model, thereby amplifying inherent biases. To address these issues, we propose Anyprefer, a framework designed to synthesize high-quality preference data for aligning the target model. Anyprefer frames the data synthesis process as a cooperative two-player Markov Game, where the target model and the judge model collaborate together. Here, a series of external tools are introduced to assist the judge model in accurately rewarding the target model's responses, mitigating biases in the rewarding process. In addition, a feedback mechanism is introduced to optimize prompts for both models, enhancing collaboration and improving data quality. The synthesized data is compiled into a new preference dataset, Anyprefer-V1, consisting of 58K high-quality preference pairs. Extensive experiments show that Anyprefer significantly improves model alignment performance across four main applications, covering 21 datasets, achieving average improvements of 18.55% in five natural language generation datasets, 3.66% in nine vision-language understanding datasets, 30.05% in three medical image analysis datasets, and 16.00% in four visuo-motor control tasks.

Learning Compositional Transferability of Time Series for Source-Free Domain Adaptation

Domain adaptation is challenging for time series classification due to the highly dynamic nature. This study tackles the most difficult subtask when both target labels and source data are inaccessible, namely, source-free domain adaptation. To reuse the classification backbone pre-trained on source data, time series reconstruction is a sound solution that aligns target and source time series by minimizing the reconstruction errors of both. However, simply fine-tuning the source pre-trained reconstruction model on target data may lose the learnt priori, and it struggles to accommodate domain varying temporal patterns in a single encoder-decoder. Therefore, this paper tries to disentangle the composition of domain transferability by using a compositional architecture for time series reconstruction. Here, the preceding component is a U-net frozen since pre-trained, the output of which during adaptation is the initial reconstruction of a given target time series, acting as a coarse step to prompt the subsequent finer adaptation. The following pipeline for finer adaptation includes two parallel branches: The source replay branch using a residual link to preserve the output of U-net, and the offset compensation branch that applies an additional autoencoder (AE) to further warp U-net's output. By deploying a learnable factor on either branch to scale their composition in the final output of reconstruction, the data transferability is disentangled and the learnt reconstructive capability from source data is retained. During inference, aside from the batch-level optimization in the training, we search at test time stability-aware rescaling of source replay branch to tolerate instance-wise variation. The experimental results show that such compositional architecture of time series reconstruction leads to SOTA performance on 3 widely used benchmarks.

Tailored minimal reservoir computing: on the bidirectional connection between nonlinearities in the reservoir and in data

We study how the degree of nonlinearity in the input data affects the optimal design of reservoir computers, focusing on how closely the model's nonlinearity should align with that of the data. By reducing minimal RCs to a single tunable nonlinearity parameter, we explore how the predictive performance varies with the degree of nonlinearity in the reservoir. To provide controlled testbeds, we generalize to the fractional Halvorsen system, a novel chaotic system with fractional exponents. Our experiments reveal that the prediction performance is maximized when the reservoir's nonlinearity matches the nonlinearity present in the data. In cases where multiple nonlinearities are present in the data, we find that the correlation dimension of the predicted signal is reconstructed correctly when the smallest nonlinearity is matched. We use this observation to propose a method for estimating the minimal nonlinearity in unknown time series by sweeping the reservoir exponent and identifying the transition to a successful reconstruction. Applying this method to both synthetic and real-world datasets, including financial time series, we demonstrate its practical viability. Finally, we transfer these insights to classical RC by augmenting traditional architectures with fractional, generalized reservoir states. This yields performance gains, particularly in resource-constrained scenarios such as physical reservoirs, where increasing reservoir size is impractical or economically unviable. Our work provides a principled route toward tailoring RCs to the intrinsic complexity of the systems they aim to model.

Decomposition-based multi-scale transformer framework for time series anomaly detection

Time series anomaly detection is crucial for maintaining stable systems. Existing methods face two main challenges. First, it is difficult to directly model the dependencies of diverse and complex patterns within the sequences. Second, many methods that optimize parameters using mean squared error struggle with noise in the time series, leading to performance deterioration. To address these challenges, we propose a transformer-based framework built on decomposition (TransDe) for multivariate time series anomaly detection. The key idea is to combine the strengths of time series decomposition and transformers to effectively learn the complex patterns in normal time series data. A multi-scale patch-based transformer architecture is proposed to exploit the representative dependencies of each decomposed component of the time series. Furthermore, a contrastive learn paradigm based on patch operation is proposed, which leverages KL divergence to align the positive pairs, namely the pure representations of normal patterns between different patch-level views. A novel asynchronous loss function with a stop-gradient strategy is further introduced to enhance the performance of TransDe effectively. It can avoid time-consuming and labor-intensive computation costs in the optimization process. Extensive experiments on five public datasets are conducted and TransDe shows superiority compared with twelve baselines in terms of F1 score. Our code is available at https://github.com/shaieesss/TransDe.