Selective Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG), which characterizes temporally evolving facts in the form of (subject, relation, object, timestamp), has attracted much attention recently. TKG reasoning aims to predict future facts based on given historical ones. However, existing TKG reasoning models are unable to abstain from predictions they are uncertain, which will inevitably bring risks in real-world applications. Thus, in this paper, we propose an abstention mechanism for TKG reasoning, which helps the existing models make selective, instead of indiscriminate, predictions. Specifically, we develop a confidence estimator, called Confidence Estimator with History (CEHis), to enable the existing TKG reasoning models to first estimate their confidence in making predictions, and then abstain from those with low confidence. To do so, CEHis takes two kinds of information into consideration, namely, the certainty of the current prediction and the accuracy of historical predictions. Experiments with representative TKG reasoning models on two benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed CEHis.

HiSMatch: Historical Structure Matching based Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning

A Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) is a sequence of KGs with respective timestamps, which adopts quadruples in the form of (\emph{subject}, \emph{relation}, \emph{object}, \emph{timestamp}) to describe dynamic facts. TKG reasoning has facilitated many real-world applications via answering such queries as (\emph{query entity}, \emph{query relation}, \emph{?}, \emph{future timestamp}) about future. This is actually a matching task between a query and candidate entities based on their historical structures, which reflect behavioral trends of the entities at different timestamps. In addition, recent KGs provide background knowledge of all the entities, which is also helpful for the matching. Thus, in this paper, we propose the \textbf{Hi}storical \textbf{S}tructure \textbf{Match}ing (\textbf{HiSMatch}) model. It applies two structure encoders to capture the semantic information contained in the historical structures of the query and candidate entities. Besides, it adopts another encoder to integrate the background knowledge into the model. TKG reasoning experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate the significant improvement of the proposed HiSMatch model, with up to 5.6\% performance improvement in MRR, compared to the state-of-the-art baselines.