Adapt Data to Model: Adaptive Transformation Optimization for Domain-shared Time Series Foundation Models

Large time series models (LTMs) have emerged as powerful tools for universal forecasting, yet they often struggle with the inherent diversity and nonstationarity of real-world time series data, leading to an unsatisfactory trade-off between forecasting accuracy and generalization. Rather than continually finetuning new LTM instances for each domain, we propose a data-centric framework, time-series adaptive transformation optimization (TATO), that enables a single frozen pre-trained LTM to adapt to diverse downstream domains through an optimally configured transformation pipeline. Specifically, TATO constructs three representative types of transformations, including context slicing, scale normalization, and outlier correction, to help LTMs better align with target domain characteristics. To ensure robustness, we incorporate carefully selected time series augmentations and a two-stage ranking mechanism that filters out pipelines underperforming on specific metrics. Extensive experiments on state-of-the-art LTMs and widely used datasets demonstrate that TATO consistently and significantly improves domain-adaptive forecasting performance, achieving a maximum reduction in MSE of 65.4\% and an average reduction of 13.6\%. Moreover, TATO is highly efficient, typically completing optimization in under 2 minutes, making it practical for real-world deployment. The source code is available at https://github.com/thulab/TATO.

BTTackler: A Diagnosis-based Framework for Efficient Deep Learning Hyperparameter Optimization

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is known to be costly in deep learning, especially when leveraging automated approaches. Most of the existing automated HPO methods are accuracy-based, i.e., accuracy metrics are used to guide the trials of different hyperparameter configurations amongst a specific search space. However, many trials may encounter severe training problems, such as vanishing gradients and insufficient convergence, which can hardly be reflected by accuracy metrics in the early stages of the training and often result in poor performance. This leads to an inefficient optimization trajectory because the bad trials occupy considerable computation resources and reduce the probability of finding excellent hyperparameter configurations within a time limitation. In this paper, we propose \textbf{Bad Trial Tackler (BTTackler)}, a novel HPO framework that introduces training diagnosis to identify training problems automatically and hence tackles bad trials. BTTackler diagnoses each trial by calculating a set of carefully designed quantified indicators and triggers early termination if any training problems are detected. Evaluations are performed on representative HPO tasks consisting of three classical deep neural networks (DNN) and four widely used HPO methods. To better quantify the effectiveness of an automated HPO method, we propose two new measurements based on accuracy and time consumption. Results show the advantage of BTTackler on two-fold: (1) it reduces 40.33\% of time consumption to achieve the same accuracy comparable to baseline methods on average and (2) it conducts 44.5\% more top-10 trials than baseline methods on average within a given time budget. We also released an open-source Python library that allows users to easily apply BTTackler to automated HPO processes with minimal code changes.