MATHWELL: Generating Educational Math Word Problems at Scale

Math word problems are critical K-8 educational tools, but writing them is time-consuming and requires domain expertise. We suggest that language models can support K-8 math education by automatically generating problems at scale. To be educational, generated problems must be 1) solvable, 2) accurate, and 3) appropriate. Existing datasets are unlabeled for these criteria, making them ill-suited for training problem generators. We introduce MATHWELL, a Llama-2 (70B) model iteratively finetuned to generate K-8 math word problems using data from expert annotation. Using MATHWELL, we generate the largest English word problem dataset with Program of Thought (PoT) rationales to date, containing 20,490 problems. 3,484 are scored by domain experts who find MATHWELL has a 40% higher share of problems that have executable solutions and meet all criteria than alternatives, with 74% of its problems with executable solutions being solvable, accurate, and appropriate. We release our model, data, and annotations.

UniTS: Building a Unified Time Series Model

Foundation models, especially LLMs, are profoundly transforming deep learning. Instead of training many task-specific models, we can adapt a single pretrained model to many tasks via fewshot prompting or fine-tuning. However, current foundation models apply to sequence data but not to time series, which present unique challenges due to the inherent diverse and multidomain time series datasets, diverging task specifications across forecasting, classification and other types of tasks, and the apparent need for task-specialized models. We developed UNITS, a unified time series model that supports a universal task specification, accommodating classification, forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection tasks. This is achieved through a novel unified network backbone, which incorporates sequence and variable attention along with a dynamic linear operator and is trained as a unified model. Across 38 multi-domain datasets, UNITS demonstrates superior performance compared to task-specific models and repurposed natural language-based LLMs. UNITS exhibits remarkable zero-shot, few-shot, and prompt learning capabilities when evaluated on new data domains and tasks. The source code and datasets are available at https://github.com/mims-harvard/UniTS.

Improving Black-box Robustness with In-Context Rewriting

Machine learning models often excel on in-distribution (ID) data but struggle with unseen out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Most techniques for improving OOD robustness are not applicable to settings where the model is effectively a black box, such as when the weights are frozen, retraining is costly, or the model is leveraged via an API. Test-time augmentation (TTA) is a simple post-hoc technique for improving robustness that sidesteps black-box constraints by aggregating predictions across multiple augmentations of the test input. TTA has seen limited use in NLP due to the challenge of generating effective natural language augmentations. In this work, we propose LLM-TTA, which uses LLM-generated augmentations as TTA's augmentation function. LLM-TTA outperforms conventional augmentation functions across sentiment, toxicity, and news classification tasks for BERT and T5 models, with BERT's OOD robustness improving by an average of 4.30 percentage points without regressing average ID performance. We explore selectively augmenting inputs based on prediction entropy to reduce the rate of expensive LLM augmentations, allowing us to maintain performance gains while reducing the average number of generated augmentations by 57.76%. LLM-TTA is agnostic to the task model architecture, does not require OOD labels, and is effective across low and high-resource settings. We share our data, models, and code for reproducibility.

Learning from Time Series under Temporal Label Noise

Many sequential classification tasks are affected by label noise that varies over time. Such noise can cause label quality to improve, worsen, or periodically change over time. We first propose and formalize temporal label noise, an unstudied problem for sequential classification of time series. In this setting, multiple labels are recorded in sequence while being corrupted by a time-dependent noise function. We first demonstrate the importance of modelling the temporal nature of the label noise function and how existing methods will consistently underperform. We then propose methods that can train noise-tolerant classifiers by estimating the temporal label noise function directly from data. We show that our methods lead to state-of-the-art performance in the presence of diverse temporal label noise functions using real and synthetic data.

Machine Learning for Health symposium 2023 -- Findings track

A collection of the accepted Findings papers that were presented at the 3rd Machine Learning for Health symposium (ML4H 2023), which was held on December 10, 2023, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. ML4H 2023 invited high-quality submissions on relevant problems in a variety of health-related disciplines including healthcare, biomedicine, and public health. Two submission tracks were offered: the archival Proceedings track, and the non-archival Findings track. Proceedings were targeted at mature work with strong technical sophistication and a high impact to health. The Findings track looked for new ideas that could spark insightful discussion, serve as valuable resources for the community, or could enable new collaborations. Submissions to the Proceedings track, if not accepted, were automatically considered for the Findings track. All the manuscripts submitted to ML4H Symposium underwent a double-blind peer-review process.

Multi-State Brain Network Discovery

Brain network discovery aims to find nodes and edges from the spatio-temporal signals obtained by neuroimaging data, such as fMRI scans of human brains. Existing methods tend to derive representative or average brain networks, assuming observed signals are generated by only a single brain activity state. However, the human brain usually involves multiple activity states, which jointly determine the brain activities. The brain regions and their connectivity usually exhibit intricate patterns that are difficult to capture with only a single-state network. Recent studies find that brain parcellation and connectivity change according to the brain activity state. We refer to such brain networks as multi-state, and this mixture can help us understand human behavior. Thus, compared to a single-state network, a multi-state network can prevent us from losing crucial information of cognitive brain network. To achieve this, we propose a new model called MNGL (Multi-state Network Graphical Lasso), which successfully models multi-state brain networks by combining CGL (coherent graphical lasso) with GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model). Using both synthetic and real world ADHD 200 fMRI datasets, we demonstrate that MNGL outperforms recent state-of-the-art alternatives by discovering more explanatory and realistic results.

Continuous Time Evidential Distributions for Irregular Time Series

Prevalent in many real-world settings such as healthcare, irregular time series are challenging to formulate predictions from. It is difficult to infer the value of a feature at any given time when observations are sporadic, as it could take on a range of values depending on when it was last observed. To characterize this uncertainty we present EDICT, a strategy that learns an evidential distribution over irregular time series in continuous time. This distribution enables well-calibrated and flexible inference of partially observed features at any time of interest, while expanding uncertainty temporally for sparse, irregular observations. We demonstrate that EDICT attains competitive performance on challenging time series classification tasks and enabling uncertainty-guided inference when encountering noisy data.