Continuous Time Evidential Distributions for Irregular Time Series

Prevalent in many real-world settings such as healthcare, irregular time series are challenging to formulate predictions from. It is difficult to infer the value of a feature at any given time when observations are sporadic, as it could take on a range of values depending on when it was last observed. To characterize this uncertainty we present EDICT, a strategy that learns an evidential distribution over irregular time series in continuous time. This distribution enables well-calibrated and flexible inference of partially observed features at any time of interest, while expanding uncertainty temporally for sparse, irregular observations. We demonstrate that EDICT attains competitive performance on challenging time series classification tasks and enabling uncertainty-guided inference when encountering noisy data.

Encoding Time-Series Explanations through Self-Supervised Model Behavior Consistency

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently uninterpretable nature of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on 8 synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

Interpretable Unified Language Checking

Despite recent concerns about undesirable behaviors generated by large language models (LLMs), including non-factual, biased, and hateful language, we find LLMs are inherent multi-task language checkers based on their latent representations of natural and social knowledge. We present an interpretable, unified, language checking (UniLC) method for both human and machine-generated language that aims to check if language input is factual and fair. While fairness and fact-checking tasks have been handled separately with dedicated models, we find that LLMs can achieve high performance on a combination of fact-checking, stereotype detection, and hate speech detection tasks with a simple, few-shot, unified set of prompts. With the ``1/2-shot'' multi-task language checking method proposed in this work, the GPT3.5-turbo model outperforms fully supervised baselines on several language tasks. The simple approach and results suggest that based on strong latent knowledge representations, an LLM can be an adaptive and explainable tool for detecting misinformation, stereotypes, and hate speech.

Finding Short Signals in Long Irregular Time Series with Continuous-Time Attention Policy Networks

Irregularly-sampled time series (ITS) are native to high-impact domains like healthcare, where measurements are collected over time at uneven intervals. However, for many classification problems, only small portions of long time series are often relevant to the class label. In this case, existing ITS models often fail to classify long series since they rely on careful imputation, which easily over- or under-samples the relevant regions. Using this insight, we then propose CAT, a model that classifies multivariate ITS by explicitly seeking highly-relevant portions of an input series' timeline. CAT achieves this by integrating three components: (1) A Moment Network learns to seek relevant moments in an ITS's continuous timeline using reinforcement learning. (2) A Receptor Network models the temporal dynamics of both observations and their timing localized around predicted moments. (3) A recurrent Transition Model models the sequence of transitions between these moments, cultivating a representation with which the series is classified. Using synthetic and real data, we find that CAT outperforms ten state-of-the-art methods by finding short signals in long irregular time series.

Aging with GRACE: Lifelong Model Editing with Discrete Key-Value Adaptors

Large pre-trained models decay over long-term deployment as input distributions shift, user requirements change, or crucial knowledge gaps are discovered. Recently, model editors have been proposed to modify a model's behavior by adjusting its weights during deployment. However, when editing the same model multiple times, these approaches quickly decay a model's performance on upstream data and forget how to fix previous errors. We propose and study a novel Lifelong Model Editing setting, where streaming errors are identified for a deployed model and we update the model to correct its predictions without influencing unrelated inputs without access to training edits, exogenous datasets, or any upstream data for the edited model. To approach this problem, we introduce General Retrieval Adaptors for Continual Editing, or GRACE, which learns to cache a chosen layer's activations in an adaptive codebook as edits stream in, leaving original model weights frozen. GRACE can thus edit models thousands of times in a row using only streaming errors, while minimally influencing unrelated inputs. Experimentally, we show that GRACE improves over recent model editors and generalizes to unseen inputs. Our code is available at https://www.github.com/thartvigsen/grace.

Class-Specific Explainability for Deep Time Series Classifiers

Explainability helps users trust deep learning solutions for time series classification. However, existing explainability methods for multi-class time series classifiers focus on one class at a time, ignoring relationships between the classes. Instead, when a classifier is choosing between many classes, an effective explanation must show what sets the chosen class apart from the rest. We now formalize this notion, studying the open problem of class-specific explainability for deep time series classifiers, a challenging and impactful problem setting. We design a novel explainability method, DEMUX, which learns saliency maps for explaining deep multi-class time series classifiers by adaptively ensuring that its explanation spotlights the regions in an input time series that a model uses specifically to its predicted class. DEMUX adopts a gradient-based approach composed of three interdependent modules that combine to generate consistent, class-specific saliency maps that remain faithful to the classifier's behavior yet are easily understood by end users. Our experimental study demonstrates that DEMUX outperforms nine state-of-the-art alternatives on five popular datasets when explaining two types of deep time series classifiers. Further, through a case study, we demonstrate that DEMUX's explanations indeed highlight what separates the predicted class from the others in the eyes of the classifier. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/rameshdoddaiah/DEMUX.

Stop&Hop: Early Classification of Irregular Time Series

Early classification algorithms help users react faster to their machine learning model's predictions. Early warning systems in hospitals, for example, let clinicians improve their patients' outcomes by accurately predicting infections. While early classification systems are advancing rapidly, a major gap remains: existing systems do not consider irregular time series, which have uneven and often-long gaps between their observations. Such series are notoriously pervasive in impactful domains like healthcare. We bridge this gap and study early classification of irregular time series, a new setting for early classifiers that opens doors to more real-world problems. Our solution, Stop&Hop, uses a continuous-time recurrent network to model ongoing irregular time series in real time, while an irregularity-aware halting policy, trained with reinforcement learning, predicts when to stop and classify the streaming series. By taking real-valued step sizes, the halting policy flexibly decides exactly when to stop ongoing series in real time. This way, Stop&Hop seamlessly integrates information contained in the timing of observations, a new and vital source for early classification in this setting, with the time series values to provide early classifications for irregular time series. Using four synthetic and three real-world datasets, we demonstrate that Stop&Hop consistently makes earlier and more-accurate predictions than state-of-the-art alternatives adapted to this new problem. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/thartvigsen/StopAndHop.

TWEET-FID: An Annotated Dataset for Multiple Foodborne Illness Detection Tasks

Foodborne illness is a serious but preventable public health problem -- with delays in detecting the associated outbreaks resulting in productivity loss, expensive recalls, public safety hazards, and even loss of life. While social media is a promising source for identifying unreported foodborne illnesses, there is a dearth of labeled datasets for developing effective outbreak detection models. To accelerate the development of machine learning-based models for foodborne outbreak detection, we thus present TWEET-FID (TWEET-Foodborne Illness Detection), the first publicly available annotated dataset for multiple foodborne illness incident detection tasks. TWEET-FID collected from Twitter is annotated with three facets: tweet class, entity type, and slot type, with labels produced by experts as well as by crowdsource workers. We introduce several domain tasks leveraging these three facets: text relevance classification (TRC), entity mention detection (EMD), and slot filling (SF). We describe the end-to-end methodology for dataset design, creation, and labeling for supporting model development for these tasks. A comprehensive set of results for these tasks leveraging state-of-the-art single- and multi-task deep learning methods on the TWEET-FID dataset are provided. This dataset opens opportunities for future research in foodborne outbreak detection.

The Road to Explainability is Paved with Bias: Measuring the Fairness of Explanations

Machine learning models in safety-critical settings like healthcare are often blackboxes: they contain a large number of parameters which are not transparent to users. Post-hoc explainability methods where a simple, human-interpretable model imitates the behavior of these blackbox models are often proposed to help users trust model predictions. In this work, we audit the quality of such explanations for different protected subgroups using real data from four settings in finance, healthcare, college admissions, and the US justice system. Across two different blackbox model architectures and four popular explainability methods, we find that the approximation quality of explanation models, also known as the fidelity, differs significantly between subgroups. We also demonstrate that pairing explainability methods with recent advances in robust machine learning can improve explanation fairness in some settings. However, we highlight the importance of communicating details of non-zero fidelity gaps to users, since a single solution might not exist across all settings. Finally, we discuss the implications of unfair explanation models as a challenging and understudied problem facing the machine learning community.

ToxiGen: A Large-Scale Machine-Generated Dataset for Adversarial and Implicit Hate Speech Detection

Toxic language detection systems often falsely flag text that contains minority group mentions as toxic, as those groups are often the targets of online hate. Such over-reliance on spurious correlations also causes systems to struggle with detecting implicitly toxic language. To help mitigate these issues, we create ToxiGen, a new large-scale and machine-generated dataset of 274k toxic and benign statements about 13 minority groups. We develop a demonstration-based prompting framework and an adversarial classifier-in-the-loop decoding method to generate subtly toxic and benign text with a massive pretrained language model. Controlling machine generation in this way allows ToxiGen to cover implicitly toxic text at a larger scale, and about more demographic groups, than previous resources of human-written text. We conduct a human evaluation on a challenging subset of ToxiGen and find that annotators struggle to distinguish machine-generated text from human-written language. We also find that 94.5% of toxic examples are labeled as hate speech by human annotators. Using three publicly-available datasets, we show that finetuning a toxicity classifier on our data improves its performance on human-written data substantially. We also demonstrate that ToxiGen can be used to fight machine-generated toxicity as finetuning improves the classifier significantly on our evaluation subset.