OrderGrad: Optimizing Beyond the Mean with Order-Statistic Policy Gradient Estimation

Policy-gradient methods usually optimize expected return, but many real world applications care about distributional properties of returns: tail risk, outlier robustness, or best-of-K discovery. We introduce OrderGrad, a family of likelihood-ratio and reparameterization gradient estimators for order-statistic objectives. OrderGrad optimizes finite-sample L-statistics, i.e., weighted averages of sorted rewards or costs, recovering objectives such as VaR, CVaR, trimmed means, medians, and top-m/best-of-K criteria by changing only the rank weights. For any fixed sample size and rank-weight vector, OrderGrad provides an unbiased gradient estimator for the corresponding order-statistic objective. The method is implemented as a simple reward transformation that can then be used in an otherwise standard policy-gradient or reparameterized update. We study the resulting estimator's variance behavior and evaluate it on tasks where mean optimization is mismatched to the deployment objective, including LLM math post-training and other tasks. OrderGrad provides a unified, plug-and-play route to risk-averse, robust, and exploratory learning. Code: https://github.com/paavo5/ordergrad

On Advantage Estimates for Max@K Policy Gradients

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards is widely used for post-training reasoning models, but sparse outcome rewards make exploration difficult. A complementary approach is to optimize inference-time objectives such as pass@K and max@K directly, yet existing policy-gradient estimators for these objectives use different signals, baselines, and normalizations, making their relationships unclear. We study this issue through baseline design and advantage centering. Starting from the advantage estimator of a leading method in the field, we show that it is policy-gradient unbiased but yields a non-centered advantage. We then introduce a Leave-Two-Out baseline that preserves policy-gradient unbiasedness while making realized batch advantages exactly centered. The resulting method, MaxPO, has an efficient quadratic-time implementation and integrates naturally into group-based RL for LLM post-training. We further derive the canonical finite-batch advantage for max@K, providing a unified view of existing advantage estimators. Empirically, we verify that the L2O baseline reduces gradient variance and outperforms non-centered alternatives.

Clustered Self-Assessment: A Simple yet Effective Method for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance across diverse tasks, but they often generate responses that appear plausible while being factually incorrect. This problem is compounded by the lack of explicit uncertainty estimates, which makes it difficult for users to judge the reliability of model outputs. Existing uncertainty quantification methods typically rely on indirect signals, such as entropy across sampled generations. These signals can be difficult to interpret and do not fully leverage the model's ability to assess its own uncertainty. We propose a simple yet effective self-assessment method for uncertainty quantification in LLMs. Our approach groups sampled generations into semantically distinct clusters, converts them into answer options in a structured multiple-choice question, and uses the probability assigned by the LLM to each option as a confidence estimate. Experiments across multiple models and datasets show that our method consistently outperforms baseline approaches. Notably, it achieves competitive performance with as few as two additional samples, demonstrating both its effectiveness and efficiency.

Zipping the Thought: When and How Compressed Reasoning Data Works in LLM Post-Training

Large language models (LLMs) can now solve complex problems through long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, but the trade-off between performance and token cost remains a central challenge. To address this issue, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) often uses compressed reasoning data, where CoT traces are shortened into compact forms. However, the effect of such compressed reasoning data on post-training remains poorly understood. In this paper, we propose a taxonomy of CoT consisting of Explicit CoT, which outputs all operations without aggregation, Composed CoT, which combines multiple operations into a single step, and Implicit CoT, which omits intermediate operations. We construct a synthetic compositional reasoning task that allows controlled variation of difficulty, compression granularity, and data size, and conducted a comprehensive set of experiments across different model families and sizes. Notably, we find that (i) coarser CoT requires more SFT data, (ii) compared with Explicit CoT, Composed CoT and Implicit CoT benefit more from data scaling, while Composed CoT benefits from data repetition and Implicit CoT tends to lead to memorization, (iii) unlike SFT, subsequent reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable rewards (RLVR) decomposes compressed steps learned during SFT, and (iv) unidirectional CoT ordering shows stronger generalization on longer sequential tasks. Our findings provide implications for CoT design under data resource constraints and offer important insights into the mechanisms of SFT and RL in LLM post-training.

Semantic Token Clustering for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks. However, the truthfulness of their outputs is not guaranteed, and their tendency toward overconfidence further limits reliability. Uncertainty quantification offers a promising way to identify potentially unreliable outputs, but most existing methods rely on repeated sampling or auxiliary models, introducing substantial computational overhead. To address these limitations, we propose Semantic Token Clustering (STC), an efficient uncertainty quantification method that leverages the semantic information inherently encoded in LLMs. Specifically, we group tokens into semantically consistent clusters using embedding clustering and prefix matching, and quantify uncertainty based on the probability mass aggregated over the corresponding semantic cluster. Our approach requires only a single generation and does not depend on auxiliary models. Experimental results show that STC achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art baselines while substantially reducing computational overhead.

ClinDet-Bench: Beyond Abstention, Evaluating Judgment Determinability of LLMs in Clinical Decision-Making

Clinical decisions are often required under incomplete information. Clinical experts must identify whether available information is sufficient for judgment, as both premature conclusion and unnecessary abstention can compromise patient safety. To evaluate this capability of large language models (LLMs), we developed ClinDet-Bench, a benchmark based on clinical scoring systems that decomposes incomplete-information scenarios into determinable and undeterminable conditions. Identifying determinability requires considering all hypotheses about missing information, including unlikely ones, and verifying whether the conclusion holds across them. We find that recent LLMs fail to identify determinability under incomplete information, producing both premature judgments and excessive abstention, despite correctly explaining the underlying scoring knowledge and performing well under complete information. These findings suggest that existing benchmarks are insufficient to evaluate the safety of LLMs in clinical settings. ClinDet-Bench provides a framework for evaluating determinability recognition, leading to appropriate abstention, with potential applicability to medicine and other high-stakes domains, and is publicly available.

Emergent Analogical Reasoning in Transformers

Analogy is a central faculty of human intelligence, enabling abstract patterns discovered in one domain to be applied to another. Despite its central role in cognition, the mechanisms by which Transformers acquire and implement analogical reasoning remain poorly understood. In this work, inspired by the notion of functors in category theory, we formalize analogical reasoning as the inference of correspondences between entities across categories. Based on this formulation, we introduce synthetic tasks that evaluate the emergence of analogical reasoning under controlled settings. We find that the emergence of analogical reasoning is highly sensitive to data characteristics, optimization choices, and model scale. Through mechanistic analysis, we show that analogical reasoning in Transformers decomposes into two key components: (1) geometric alignment of relational structure in the embedding space, and (2) the application of a functor within the Transformer. These mechanisms enable models to transfer relational structure from one category to another, realizing analogy. Finally, we quantify these effects and find that the same trends are observed in pretrained LLMs. In doing so, we move analogy from an abstract cognitive notion to a concrete, mechanistically grounded phenomenon in modern neural networks.

$\infty$-MoE: Generalizing Mixture of Experts to Infinite Experts

The Mixture of Experts (MoE) selects a few feed-forward networks (FFNs) per token, achieving an effective trade-off between computational cost and performance. In conventional MoE, each expert is treated as entirely independent, and experts are combined in a discrete space. As a result, when the number of experts increases, it becomes difficult to train each expert effectively. To stabilize training while increasing the number of experts, we propose $\infty$-MoE that selects a portion of the parameters of large FFNs based on continuous values sampled for each token. By considering experts in a continuous space, this approach allows for an infinite number of experts while maintaining computational efficiency. Experiments show that a GPT-2 Small-based $\infty$-MoE model, with 129M active and 186M total parameters, achieves comparable performance to a dense GPT-2 Medium with 350M parameters. Adjusting the number of sampled experts at inference time allows for a flexible trade-off between accuracy and speed, with an improvement of up to 2.5\% in accuracy over conventional MoE.

Topology of Reasoning: Understanding Large Reasoning Models through Reasoning Graph Properties

Recent large-scale reasoning models have achieved state-of-the-art performance on challenging mathematical benchmarks, yet the internal mechanisms underlying their success remain poorly understood. In this work, we introduce the notion of a reasoning graph, extracted by clustering hidden-state representations at each reasoning step, and systematically analyze three key graph-theoretic properties: cyclicity, diameter, and small-world index, across multiple tasks (GSM8K, MATH500, AIME 2024). Our findings reveal that distilled reasoning models (e.g., DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B) exhibit significantly more recurrent cycles (about 5 per sample), substantially larger graph diameters, and pronounced small-world characteristics (about 6x) compared to their base counterparts. Notably, these structural advantages grow with task difficulty and model capacity, with cycle detection peaking at the 14B scale and exploration diameter maximized in the 32B variant, correlating positively with accuracy. Furthermore, we show that supervised fine-tuning on an improved dataset systematically expands reasoning graph diameters in tandem with performance gains, offering concrete guidelines for dataset design aimed at boosting reasoning capabilities. By bridging theoretical insights into reasoning graph structures with practical recommendations for data construction, our work advances both the interpretability and the efficacy of large reasoning models.

Inconsistent Tokenizations Cause Language Models to be Perplexed by Japanese Grammar

Typical methods for evaluating the performance of language models evaluate their ability to answer questions accurately. These evaluation metrics are acceptable for determining the extent to which language models can understand and reason about text in a general sense, but fail to capture nuanced capabilities, such as the ability of language models to recognize and obey rare grammar points, particularly in languages other than English. We measure the perplexity of language models when confronted with the "first person psych predicate restriction" grammar point in Japanese. Weblab is the only tested open source model in the 7-10B parameter range which consistently assigns higher perplexity to ungrammatical psych predicate sentences than grammatical ones. We give evidence that Weblab's uniformly bad tokenization is a possible root cause for its good performance, and show that Llama 3's perplexity on grammatical psych predicate sentences can be reduced by orders of magnitude (28x difference) by restricting test sentences to those with uniformly well-behaved tokenizations. We show in further experiments on machine translation tasks that language models will use alternative grammar patterns in order to produce grammatical sentences when tokenization issues prevent the most natural sentence from being output.