Counterfactual Fairness through Transforming Data Orthogonal to Bias

Machine learning models have shown exceptional prowess in solving complex issues across various domains. Nonetheless, these models can sometimes exhibit biased decision-making, leading to disparities in treatment across different groups. Despite the extensive research on fairness, the nuanced effects of multivariate and continuous sensitive variables on decision-making outcomes remain insufficiently studied. We introduce a novel data pre-processing algorithm, Orthogonal to Bias (OB), designed to remove the influence of a group of continuous sensitive variables, thereby facilitating counterfactual fairness in machine learning applications. Our approach is grounded in the assumption of a jointly normal distribution within a structural causal model (SCM), proving that counterfactual fairness can be achieved by ensuring the data is uncorrelated with sensitive variables. The OB algorithm is model-agnostic, catering to a wide array of machine learning models and tasks, and includes a sparse variant to enhance numerical stability through regularization. Through empirical evaluation on simulated and real-world datasets - including the adult income and the COMPAS recidivism datasets - our methodology demonstrates its capacity to enable fairer outcomes without compromising accuracy.

Bayesian Optimization with Hidden Constraints via Latent Decision Models

Bayesian optimization (BO) has emerged as a potent tool for addressing intricate decision-making challenges, especially in public policy domains such as police districting. However, its broader application in public policymaking is hindered by the complexity of defining feasible regions and the high-dimensionality of decisions. This paper introduces the Hidden-Constrained Latent Space Bayesian Optimization (HC-LSBO), a novel BO method integrated with a latent decision model. This approach leverages a variational autoencoder to learn the distribution of feasible decisions, enabling a two-way mapping between the original decision space and a lower-dimensional latent space. By doing so, HC-LSBO captures the nuances of hidden constraints inherent in public policymaking, allowing for optimization in the latent space while evaluating objectives in the original space. We validate our method through numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data sets, with a specific focus on large-scale police districting problems in Atlanta, Georgia. Our results reveal that HC-LSBO offers notable improvements in performance and efficiency compared to the baselines.

Detecting Electricity Service Equity Issues with Transfer Counterfactual Learning on Large-Scale Outage Datasets

Energy justice is a growing area of interest in interdisciplinary energy research. However, identifying systematic biases in the energy sector remains challenging due to confounding variables, intricate heterogeneity in treatment effects, and limited data availability. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach for counterfactual causal analysis centered on energy justice. We use subgroup analysis to manage diverse factors and leverage the idea of transfer learning to mitigate data scarcity in each subgroup. In our numerical analysis, we apply our method to a large-scale customer-level power outage data set and investigate the counterfactual effect of demographic factors, such as income and age of the population, on power outage durations. Our results indicate that low-income and elderly-populated areas consistently experience longer power outages, regardless of weather conditions. This points to existing biases in the power system and highlights the need for focused improvements in areas with economic challenges.

Uncertainty-Aware Robust Learning on Noisy Graphs

Graph neural networks have shown impressive capabilities in solving various graph learning tasks, particularly excelling in node classification. However, their effectiveness can be hindered by the challenges arising from the widespread existence of noisy measurements associated with the topological or nodal information present in real-world graphs. These inaccuracies in observations can corrupt the crucial patterns within the graph data, ultimately resulting in undesirable performance in practical applications. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty-aware graph learning framework motivated by distributionally robust optimization. Specifically, we use a graph neural network-based encoder to embed the node features and find the optimal node embeddings by minimizing the worst-case risk through a minimax formulation. Such an uncertainty-aware learning process leads to improved node representations and a more robust graph predictive model that effectively mitigates the impact of uncertainty arising from data noise. Our experimental result shows that the proposed framework achieves superior predictive performance compared to the state-of-the-art baselines under various noisy settings.

Counterfactual Generative Models for Time-Varying Treatments

Estimating average causal effects is a common practice to test new treatments. However, the average effect ''masks'' important individual characteristics in the counterfactual distribution, which may lead to safety, fairness, and ethical concerns. This issue is exacerbated in the temporal setting, where the treatment is sequential and time-varying, leading to an intricate influence on the counterfactual distribution. In this paper, we propose a novel conditional generative modeling approach to capture the whole counterfactual distribution, allowing efficient inference on certain statistics of the counterfactual distribution. This makes the proposed approach particularly suitable for healthcare and public policy making. Our generative modeling approach carefully tackles the distribution mismatch in the observed data and the targeted counterfactual distribution via a marginal structural model. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on both synthetic and real data.

Conditional Generative Modeling is All You Need for Marked Temporal Point Processes

Recent advancements in generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality content from context information, but a key question remains: how to teach models to know when to generate content? To answer this question, this study proposes a novel event generative model that draws its statistical intuition from marked temporal point processes, and offers a clean, flexible, and computationally efficient solution for a wide range of applications involving multi-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of the point process without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples, as well as considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.

Neural Spectral Marked Point Processes

Self- and mutually-exciting point processes are popular models in machine learning and statistics for dependent discrete event data. To date, most existing models assume stationary kernels (including the classical Hawkes processes) and simple parametric models. Modern applications with complex event data require more general point process models that can incorporate contextual information of the events, called marks, besides the temporal and location information. Moreover, such applications often require non-stationary models to capture more complex spatio-temporal dependence. To tackle these challenges, a key question is to devise a versatile influence kernel in the point process model. In this paper, we introduce a novel and general neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel with high expressiveness for handling complex discrete events data while providing theoretical performance guarantees. We demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method compared with the state-of-the-art on synthetic and real data.

Early Detection of COVID-19 Hotspots Using Spatio-Temporal Data

Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has worked with other federal agencies to identify counties with increasing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence (hotspots) and offers support to local health departments to limit the spread of the disease. Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of hotspot events is of great importance to support policy decisions and prevent large-scale outbreaks. This paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian framework for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots (at the county level) in the United States. We assume both the observed number of cases and hotspots depend on a class of latent random variables, which encode the underlying spatio-temporal dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19. Such latent variables follow a zero-mean Gaussian process, whose covariance is specified by a non-stationary kernel function. The most salient feature of our kernel function is that deep neural networks are introduced to enhance the model's representative power while still enjoying the interpretability of the kernel. We derive a sparse model and fit the model using a variational learning strategy to circumvent the computational intractability for large data sets. Our model demonstrates better interpretability and superior hotspot-detection performance compared to other baseline methods.

Harvesting data revolution for transmission electron microscopy (TEM) using signal processing

TEM (Transmission Electron Microscopy) is a powerful tool for imaging material structure and characterizing material chemistry. Recent advances in data collection technology for TEM have enabled high-volume and high-resolution data collection at a microsecond frame rate. This challenge requires the development of new data processing tools, including image analysis, feature extraction, and streaming data processing techniques. In this paper, we highlight a few areas that have benefited from combining signal processing and statistical analysis with data collection capabilities in TEM and present a future outlook in opportunities of integrating signal processing with automated TEM data analysis.

Data-Driven Optimization for Police Zone Design

We present a data-driven optimization framework for redesigning police patrol zones in an urban environment. The objectives are to rebalance police workload among geographical areas and to reduce response time to emergency calls. We develop a stochastic model for police emergency response by integrating multiple data sources, including police incidents reports, demographic surveys, and traffic data. Using this stochastic model, we optimize zone redesign plans using mixed-integer linear programming. Our proposed design was implemented by the Atlanta Police Department in March 2019. By analyzing data before and after the zone redesign, we show that the new design has reduced the response time to high priority 911 calls by 5.8\% and the imbalance of police workload among different zones by 43\%.