Pre-trained Large Language Models Learn Hidden Markov Models In-context

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are foundational tools for modeling sequential data with latent Markovian structure, yet fitting them to real-world data remains computationally challenging. In this work, we show that pre-trained large language models (LLMs) can effectively model data generated by HMMs via in-context learning (ICL)$\unicode{x2013}$their ability to infer patterns from examples within a prompt. On a diverse set of synthetic HMMs, LLMs achieve predictive accuracy approaching the theoretical optimum. We uncover novel scaling trends influenced by HMM properties, and offer theoretical conjectures for these empirical observations. We also provide practical guidelines for scientists on using ICL as a diagnostic tool for complex data. On real-world animal decision-making tasks, ICL achieves competitive performance with models designed by human experts. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration that ICL can learn and predict HMM-generated sequences$\unicode{x2013}$an advance that deepens our understanding of in-context learning in LLMs and establishes its potential as a powerful tool for uncovering hidden structure in complex scientific data.

Sub-optimality of the Separation Principle for Quadratic Control from Bilinear Observations

We consider the problem of controlling a linear dynamical system from bilinear observations with minimal quadratic cost. Despite the similarity of this problem to standard linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control, we show that when the observation model is bilinear, neither does the Separation Principle hold, nor is the optimal controller affine in the estimated state. Moreover, the cost-to-go is non-convex in the control input. Hence, finding an analytical expression for the optimal feedback controller is difficult in general. Under certain settings, we show that the standard LQG controller locally maximizes the cost instead of minimizing it. Furthermore, the optimal controllers (derived analytically) are not unique and are nonlinear in the estimated state. We also introduce a notion of input-dependent observability and derive conditions under which the Kalman filter covariance remains bounded. We illustrate our theoretical results through numerical experiments in multiple synthetic settings.

Policy Design for Two-sided Platforms with Participation Dynamics

In two-sided platforms (e.g., video streaming or e-commerce), viewers and providers engage in interactive dynamics, where an increased provider population results in higher viewer utility and the increase of viewer population results in higher provider utility. Despite the importance of such "population effects" on long-term platform health, recommendation policies do not generally take the participation dynamics into account. This paper thus studies the dynamics and policy design on two-sided platforms under the population effects for the first time. Our control- and game-theoretic findings warn against the use of myopic-greedy policy and shed light on the importance of provider-side considerations (i.e., effectively distributing exposure among provider groups) to improve social welfare via population growth. We also present a simple algorithm to optimize long-term objectives by considering the population effects, and demonstrate its effectiveness in synthetic and real-data experiments.

Finite Sample Identification of Partially Observed Bilinear Dynamical Systems

We consider the problem of learning a realization of a partially observed bilinear dynamical system (BLDS) from noisy input-output data. Given a single trajectory of input-output samples, we provide a finite time analysis for learning the system's Markov-like parameters, from which a balanced realization of the bilinear system can be obtained. Our bilinear system identification algorithm learns the system's Markov-like parameters by regressing the outputs to highly correlated, nonlinear, and heavy-tailed covariates. Moreover, the stability of BLDS depends on the sequence of inputs used to excite the system. These properties, unique to partially observed bilinear dynamical systems, pose significant challenges to the analysis of our algorithm for learning the unknown dynamics. We address these challenges and provide high probability error bounds on our identification algorithm under a uniform stability assumption. Our analysis provides insights into system theoretic quantities that affect learning accuracy and sample complexity. Lastly, we perform numerical experiments with synthetic data to reinforce these insights.

Learning Linear Dynamics from Bilinear Observations

We consider the problem of learning a realization of a partially observed dynamical system with linear state transitions and bilinear observations. Under very mild assumptions on the process and measurement noises, we provide a finite time analysis for learning the unknown dynamics matrices (up to a similarity transform). Our analysis involves a regression problem with heavy-tailed and dependent data. Moreover, each row of our design matrix contains a Kronecker product of current input with a history of inputs, making it difficult to guarantee persistence of excitation. We overcome these challenges, first providing a data-dependent high probability error bound for arbitrary but fixed inputs. Then, we derive a data-independent error bound for inputs chosen according to a simple random design. Our main results provide an upper bound on the statistical error rates and sample complexity of learning the unknown dynamics matrices from a single finite trajectory of bilinear observations.

Harm Mitigation in Recommender Systems under User Preference Dynamics

We consider a recommender system that takes into account the interplay between recommendations, the evolution of user interests, and harmful content. We model the impact of recommendations on user behavior, particularly the tendency to consume harmful content. We seek recommendation policies that establish a tradeoff between maximizing click-through rate (CTR) and mitigating harm. We establish conditions under which the user profile dynamics have a stationary point, and propose algorithms for finding an optimal recommendation policy at stationarity. We experiment on a semi-synthetic movie recommendation setting initialized with real data and observe that our policies outperform baselines at simultaneously maximizing CTR and mitigating harm.

Random Features Approximation for Control-Affine Systems

Modern data-driven control applications call for flexible nonlinear models that are amenable to principled controller synthesis and realtime feedback. Many nonlinear dynamical systems of interest are control affine. We propose two novel classes of nonlinear feature representations which capture control affine structure while allowing for arbitrary complexity in the state dependence. Our methods make use of random features (RF) approximations, inheriting the expressiveness of kernel methods at a lower computational cost. We formalize the representational capabilities of our methods by showing their relationship to the Affine Dot Product (ADP) kernel proposed by Casta\~neda et al. (2021) and a novel Affine Dense (AD) kernel that we introduce. We further illustrate the utility by presenting a case study of data-driven optimization-based control using control certificate functions (CCF). Simulation experiments on a double pendulum empirically demonstrate the advantages of our methods.

Learning from Streaming Data when Users Choose

In digital markets comprised of many competing services, each user chooses between multiple service providers according to their preferences, and the chosen service makes use of the user data to incrementally improve its model. The service providers' models influence which service the user will choose at the next time step, and the user's choice, in return, influences the model update, leading to a feedback loop. In this paper, we formalize the above dynamics and develop a simple and efficient decentralized algorithm to locally minimize the overall user loss. Theoretically, we show that our algorithm asymptotically converges to stationary points of of the overall loss almost surely. We also experimentally demonstrate the utility of our algorithm with real world data.

To Ask or Not To Ask: Human-in-the-loop Contextual Bandits with Applications in Robot-Assisted Feeding

Robot-assisted bite acquisition involves picking up food items that vary in their shape, compliance, size, and texture. A fully autonomous strategy for bite acquisition is unlikely to efficiently generalize to this wide variety of food items. We propose to leverage the presence of the care recipient to provide feedback when the system encounters novel food items. However, repeatedly asking for help imposes cognitive workload on the user. In this work, we formulate human-in-the-loop bite acquisition within a contextual bandit framework and propose a novel method, LinUCB-QG, that selectively asks for help. This method leverages a predictive model of cognitive workload in response to different types and timings of queries, learned using data from 89 participants collected in an online user study. We demonstrate that this method enhances the balance between task performance and cognitive workload compared to autonomous and querying baselines, through experiments in a food dataset-based simulator and a user study with 18 participants without mobility limitations.

Accounting for AI and Users Shaping One Another: The Role of Mathematical Models

As AI systems enter into a growing number of societal domains, these systems increasingly shape and are shaped by user preferences, opinions, and behaviors. However, the design of AI systems rarely accounts for how AI and users shape one another. In this position paper, we argue for the development of formal interaction models which mathematically specify how AI and users shape one another. Formal interaction models can be leveraged to (1) specify interactions for implementation, (2) monitor interactions through empirical analysis, (3) anticipate societal impacts via counterfactual analysis, and (4) control societal impacts via interventions. The design space of formal interaction models is vast, and model design requires careful consideration of factors such as style, granularity, mathematical complexity, and measurability. Using content recommender systems as a case study, we critically examine the nascent literature of formal interaction models with respect to these use-cases and design axes. More broadly, we call for the community to leverage formal interaction models when designing, evaluating, or auditing any AI system which interacts with users.