Probabilistic Reduced-Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Modeling with Oblique Projections

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic reduced-dimensional vector autoregressive (PredVAR) model to extract low-dimensional dynamics from high-dimensional noisy data. The model utilizes an oblique projection to partition the measurement space into a subspace that accommodates the reduced-dimensional dynamics and a complementary static subspace. An optimal oblique decomposition is derived for the best predictability regarding prediction error covariance. Building on this, we develop an iterative PredVAR algorithm using maximum likelihood and the expectation-maximization (EM) framework. This algorithm alternately updates the estimates of the latent dynamics and optimal oblique projection, yielding dynamic latent variables with rank-ordered predictability and an explicit latent VAR model that is consistent with the outer projection model. The superior performance and efficiency of the proposed approach are demonstrated using data sets from a synthesized Lorenz system and an industrial process from Eastman Chemical.

MLPST: MLP is All You Need for Spatio-Temporal Prediction

Traffic prediction is a typical spatio-temporal data mining task and has great significance to the public transportation system. Considering the demand for its grand application, we recognize key factors for an ideal spatio-temporal prediction method: efficient, lightweight, and effective. However, the current deep model-based spatio-temporal prediction solutions generally own intricate architectures with cumbersome optimization, which can hardly meet these expectations. To accomplish the above goals, we propose an intuitive and novel framework, MLPST, a pure multi-layer perceptron architecture for traffic prediction. Specifically, we first capture spatial relationships from both local and global receptive fields. Then, temporal dependencies in different intervals are comprehensively considered. Through compact and swift MLP processing, MLPST can well capture the spatial and temporal dependencies while requiring only linear computational complexity, as well as model parameters that are more than an order of magnitude lower than baselines. Extensive experiments validated the superior effectiveness and efficiency of MLPST against advanced baselines, and among models with optimal accuracy, MLPST achieves the best time and space efficiency.

On the Convergence of the Dynamic Inner PCA Algorithm

Dynamic inner principal component analysis (DiPCA) is a powerful method for the analysis of time-dependent multivariate data. DiPCA extracts dynamic latent variables that capture the most dominant temporal trends by solving a large-scale, dense, and nonconvex nonlinear program (NLP). A scalable decomposition algorithm has been recently proposed in the literature to solve these challenging NLPs. The decomposition algorithm performs well in practice but its convergence properties are not well understood. In this work, we show that this algorithm is a specialized variant of a coordinate maximization algorithm. This observation allows us to explain why the decomposition algorithm might work (or not) in practice and can guide improvements. We compare the performance of the decomposition strategies with that of the off-the-shelf solver Ipopt. The results show that decomposition is more scalable and, surprisingly, delivers higher quality solutions.