A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. Approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: Forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and, finally, discuss mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting both the foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

Self-Supervised Learning for Time Series Analysis: Taxonomy, Progress, and Prospects

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has recently achieved impressive performance on various time series tasks. The most prominent advantage of SSL is that it reduces the dependence on labeled data. Based on the pre-training and fine-tuning strategy, even a small amount of labeled data can achieve high performance. Compared with many published self-supervised surveys on computer vision and natural language processing, a comprehensive survey for time series SSL is still missing. To fill this gap, we review current state-of-the-art SSL methods for time series data in this article. To this end, we first comprehensively review existing surveys related to SSL and time series, and then provide a new taxonomy of existing time series SSL methods. We summarize these methods into three categories: generative-based, contrastive-based, and adversarial-based. All methods can be further divided into ten subcategories. To facilitate the experiments and validation of time series SSL methods, we also summarize datasets commonly used in time series forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and clustering tasks. Finally, we present the future directions of SSL for time series analysis.

Towards Complex Dynamic Physics System Simulation with Graph Neural ODEs

The great learning ability of deep learning models facilitates us to comprehend the real physical world, making learning to simulate complicated particle systems a promising endeavour. However, the complex laws of the physical world pose significant challenges to the learning based simulations, such as the varying spatial dependencies between interacting particles and varying temporal dependencies between particle system states in different time stamps, which dominate particles' interacting behaviour and the physical systems' evolution patterns. Existing learning based simulation methods fail to fully account for the complexities, making them unable to yield satisfactory simulations. To better comprehend the complex physical laws, this paper proposes a novel learning based simulation model- Graph Networks with Spatial-Temporal neural Ordinary Equations (GNSTODE)- that characterizes the varying spatial and temporal dependencies in particle systems using a united end-to-end framework. Through training with real-world particle-particle interaction observations, GNSTODE is able to simulate any possible particle systems with high precisions. We empirically evaluate GNSTODE's simulation performance on two real-world particle systems, Gravity and Coulomb, with varying levels of spatial and temporal dependencies. The results show that the proposed GNSTODE yields significantly better simulations than state-of-the-art learning based simulation methods, which proves that GNSTODE can serve as an effective solution to particle simulations in real-world application.

How Expressive are Spectral-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting?

Spectral-temporal graph neural network is a promising abstraction underlying most time series forecasting models that are based on graph neural networks (GNNs). However, more is needed to know about the underpinnings of this branch of methods. In this paper, we establish a theoretical framework that unravels the expressive power of spectral-temporal GNNs. Our results show that linear spectral-temporal GNNs are universal under mild assumptions, and their expressive power is bounded by our extended first-order Weisfeiler-Leman algorithm on discrete-time dynamic graphs. To make our findings useful in practice on valid instantiations, we discuss related constraints in detail and outline a theoretical blueprint for designing spatial and temporal modules in spectral domains. Building on these insights and to demonstrate how powerful spectral-temporal GNNs are based on our framework, we propose a simple instantiation named Temporal Graph GegenConv (TGC), which significantly outperforms most existing models with only linear components and shows better model efficiency.

LAVA: Data Valuation without Pre-Specified Learning Algorithms

Traditionally, data valuation is posed as a problem of equitably splitting the validation performance of a learning algorithm among the training data. As a result, the calculated data values depend on many design choices of the underlying learning algorithm. However, this dependence is undesirable for many use cases of data valuation, such as setting priorities over different data sources in a data acquisition process and informing pricing mechanisms in a data marketplace. In these scenarios, data needs to be valued before the actual analysis and the choice of the learning algorithm is still undetermined then. Another side-effect of the dependence is that to assess the value of individual points, one needs to re-run the learning algorithm with and without a point, which incurs a large computation burden. This work leapfrogs over the current limits of data valuation methods by introducing a new framework that can value training data in a way that is oblivious to the downstream learning algorithm. (1) We develop a proxy for the validation performance associated with a training set based on a non-conventional class-wise Wasserstein distance between the training and the validation set. We show that the distance characterizes the upper bound of the validation performance for any given model under certain Lipschitz conditions. (2) We develop a novel method to value individual data based on the sensitivity analysis of the class-wise Wasserstein distance. Importantly, these values can be directly obtained for free from the output of off-the-shelf optimization solvers when computing the distance. (3) We evaluate our new data valuation framework over various use cases related to detecting low-quality data and show that, surprisingly, the learning-agnostic feature of our framework enables a significant improvement over the state-of-the-art performance while being orders of magnitude faster.

Geometric Relational Embeddings: A Survey

Geometric relational embeddings map relational data as geometric objects that combine vector information suitable for machine learning and structured/relational information for structured/relational reasoning, typically in low dimensions. Their preservation of relational structures and their appealing properties and interpretability have led to their uptake for tasks such as knowledge graph completion, ontology and hierarchy reasoning, logical query answering, and hierarchical multi-label classification. We survey methods that underly geometric relational embeddings and categorize them based on (i) the embedding geometries that are used to represent the data; and (ii) the relational reasoning tasks that they aim to improve. We identify the desired properties (i.e., inductive biases) of each kind of embedding and discuss some potential future work.

Winning the CityLearn Challenge: Adaptive Optimization with Evolutionary Search under Trajectory-based Guidance

Modern power systems will have to face difficult challenges in the years to come: frequent blackouts in urban areas caused by high power demand peaks, grid instability exacerbated by intermittent renewable generation, and global climate change amplified by rising carbon emissions. While current practices are growingly inadequate, the path to widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) methods is hindered by missing aspects of trustworthiness. The CityLearn Challenge is an exemplary opportunity for researchers from multiple disciplines to investigate the potential of AI to tackle these pressing issues in the energy domain, collectively modeled as a reinforcement learning (RL) task. Multiple real-world challenges faced by contemporary RL techniques are embodied in the problem formulation. In this paper, we present a novel method using the solution function of optimization as policies to compute actions for sequential decision-making, while notably adapting the parameters of the optimization model from online observations. Algorithmically, this is achieved by an evolutionary algorithm under a novel trajectory-based guidance scheme. Formally, the global convergence property is established. Our agent ranked first in the latest 2021 CityLearn Challenge, being able to achieve superior performance in almost all metrics while maintaining some key aspects of interpretability.

On Solution Functions of Optimization: Universal Approximation and Covering Number Bounds

We study the expressibility and learnability of convex optimization solution functions and their multi-layer architectural extension. The main results are: \emph{(1)} the class of solution functions of linear programming (LP) and quadratic programming (QP) is a universal approximant for the $C^k$ smooth model class or some restricted Sobolev space, and we characterize the rate-distortion, \emph{(2)} the approximation power is investigated through a viewpoint of regression error, where information about the target function is provided in terms of data observations, \emph{(3)} compositionality in the form of a deep architecture with optimization as a layer is shown to reconstruct some basic functions used in numerical analysis without error, which implies that \emph{(4)} a substantial reduction in rate-distortion can be achieved with a universal network architecture, and \emph{(5)} we discuss the statistical bounds of empirical covering numbers for LP/QP, as well as a generic optimization problem (possibly nonconvex) by exploiting tame geometry. Our results provide the \emph{first rigorous analysis of the approximation and learning-theoretic properties of solution functions} with implications for algorithmic design and performance guarantees.

Non-stationary Risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning: Near-optimal Dynamic Regret, Adaptive Detection, and Separation Design

We study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) based on an entropic risk measure in episodic non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs). Both the reward functions and the state transition kernels are unknown and allowed to vary arbitrarily over time with a budget on their cumulative variations. When this variation budget is known a prior, we propose two restart-based algorithms, namely Restart-RSMB and Restart-RSQ, and establish their dynamic regrets. Based on these results, we further present a meta-algorithm that does not require any prior knowledge of the variation budget and can adaptively detect the non-stationarity on the exponential value functions. A dynamic regret lower bound is then established for non-stationary risk-sensitive RL to certify the near-optimality of the proposed algorithms. Our results also show that the risk control and the handling of the non-stationarity can be separately designed in the algorithm if the variation budget is known a prior, while the non-stationary detection mechanism in the adaptive algorithm depends on the risk parameter. This work offers the first non-asymptotic theoretical analyses for the non-stationary risk-sensitive RL in the literature.