IDLM: Inverse-distilled Diffusion Language Models

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have recently achieved strong results in text generation. However, their multi-step sampling leads to slow inference, limiting practical use. To address this, we extend Inverse Distillation, a technique originally developed to accelerate continuous diffusion models, to the discrete setting. Nonetheless, this extension introduces both theoretical and practical challenges. From a theoretical perspective, the inverse distillation objective lacks uniqueness guarantees, which may lead to suboptimal solutions. From a practical standpoint, backpropagation in the discrete space is non-trivial and often unstable. To overcome these challenges, we first provide a theoretical result demonstrating that our inverse formulation admits a unique solution, thereby ensuring valid optimization. We then introduce gradient-stable relaxations to support effective training. As a result, experiments on multiple DLMs show that our method, Inverse-distilled Diffusion Language Models (IDLM), reduces the number of inference steps by 4x-64x, while preserving the teacher model's entropy and generative perplexity.

Don't Throw Away Your Beams: Improving Consistency-based Uncertainties in LLMs via Beam Search

Consistency-based methods have emerged as an effective approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large language models. These methods typically rely on several generations obtained via multinomial sampling, measuring their agreement level. However, in short-form QA, multinomial sampling is prone to producing duplicates due to peaked distributions, and its stochasticity introduces considerable variance in uncertainty estimates across runs. We introduce a new family of methods that employ beam search to generate candidates for consistency-based UQ, yielding improved performance and reduced variance compared to multinomial sampling. We also provide a theoretical lower bound on the beam set probability mass under which beam search achieves a smaller error than multinomial sampling. We empirically evaluate our approach on six QA datasets and find that its consistent improvements over multinomial sampling lead to state-of-the-art UQ performance.

Uncertainty Quantification for Regression using Proper Scoring Rules

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a firm basis of learning with proper scoring rules. However, these advances were focused on classification, while extending these ideas to regression remains challenging. In this work, we introduce a unified UQ framework for regression based on proper scoring rules, such as CRPS, logarithmic, squared error, and quadratic scores. We derive closed-form expressions for the resulting uncertainty measures under practical parametric assumptions and show how to estimate them using ensembles of models. In particular, the derived uncertainty measures naturally decompose into aleatoric and epistemic components. The framework recovers popular regression UQ measures based on predictive variance and differential entropy. Our broad evaluation on synthetic and real-world regression datasets provides guidance for selecting reliable UQ measures.

Who to Trust? Aggregating Client Knowledge in Logit-Based Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) usually shares model weights or gradients, which is costly for large models. Logit-based FL reduces this cost by sharing only logits computed on a public proxy dataset. However, aggregating information from heterogeneous clients is still challenging. This paper studies this problem, introduces and compares three logit aggregation methods: simple averaging, uncertainty-weighted averaging, and a learned meta-aggregator. Evaluated on MNIST and CIFAR-10, these methods reduce communication overhead, improve robustness under non-IID data, and achieve accuracy competitive with centralized training.

Faithfulness-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for Fact-Checking the Output of Retrieval Augmented Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) enhanced with external knowledge retrieval, an approach known as Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), have shown strong performance in open-domain question answering. However, RAG systems remain susceptible to hallucinations: factually incorrect outputs that may arise either from inconsistencies in the model's internal knowledge or incorrect use of the retrieved context. Existing approaches often conflate factuality with faithfulness to the retrieved context, misclassifying factually correct statements as hallucinations if they are not directly supported by the retrieval. In this paper, we introduce FRANQ (Faithfulness-based Retrieval Augmented UNcertainty Quantification), a novel method for hallucination detection in RAG outputs. FRANQ applies different Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques to estimate factuality based on whether a statement is faithful to the retrieved context or not. To evaluate FRANQ and other UQ techniques for RAG, we present a new long-form Question Answering (QA) dataset annotated for both factuality and faithfulness, combining automated labeling with manual validation of challenging examples. Extensive experiments on long- and short-form QA across multiple datasets and LLMs show that FRANQ achieves more accurate detection of factual errors in RAG-generated responses compared to existing methods.

Uncertainty-Aware Attention Heads: Efficient Unsupervised Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive fluency, but often produce critical errors known as "hallucinations". Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are a promising tool for coping with this fundamental shortcoming. Yet, existing UQ methods face challenges such as high computational overhead or reliance on supervised learning. Here, we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we propose RAUQ (Recurrent Attention-based Uncertainty Quantification), an unsupervised approach that leverages intrinsic attention patterns in transformers to detect hallucinations efficiently. By analyzing attention weights, we identified a peculiar pattern: drops in attention to preceding tokens are systematically observed during incorrect generations for certain "uncertainty-aware" heads. RAUQ automatically selects such heads, recurrently aggregates their attention weights and token-level confidences, and computes sequence-level uncertainty scores in a single forward pass. Experiments across 4 LLMs and 12 question answering, summarization, and translation tasks demonstrate that RAUQ yields excellent results, outperforming state-of-the-art UQ methods using minimal computational overhead (<1% latency). Moreover, it requires no task-specific labels and no careful hyperparameter tuning, offering plug-and-play real-time hallucination detection in white-box LLMs.

UNCERTAINTY-LINE: Length-Invariant Estimation of Uncertainty for Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become indispensable tools across various applications, making it more important than ever to ensure the quality and the trustworthiness of their outputs. This has led to growing interest in uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for assessing the reliability of LLM outputs. Many existing UQ techniques rely on token probabilities, which inadvertently introduces a bias with respect to the length of the output. While some methods attempt to account for this, we demonstrate that such biases persist even in length-normalized approaches. To address the problem, here we propose UNCERTAINTY-LINE: (Length-INvariant Estimation), a simple debiasing procedure that regresses uncertainty scores on output length and uses the residuals as corrected, length-invariant estimates. Our method is post-hoc, model-agnostic, and applicable to a range of UQ measures. Through extensive evaluation on machine translation, summarization, and question-answering tasks, we demonstrate that UNCERTAINTY-LINE: consistently improves over even nominally length-normalized UQ methods uncertainty estimates across multiple metrics and models.

Adaptive Temperature Scaling with Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction enables the construction of high-coverage prediction sets for any pre-trained model, guaranteeing that the true label lies within the set with a specified probability. However, these sets do not provide probability estimates for individual labels, limiting their practical use. In this paper, we propose, to the best of our knowledge, the first method for assigning calibrated probabilities to elements of a conformal prediction set. Our approach frames this as an adaptive calibration problem, selecting an input-specific temperature parameter to match the desired coverage level. Experiments on several challenging image classification datasets demonstrate that our method maintains coverage guarantees while significantly reducing expected calibration error.

Uncertainty-aware abstention in medical diagnosis based on medical texts

This study addresses the critical issue of reliability for AI-assisted medical diagnosis. We focus on the selection prediction approach that allows the diagnosis system to abstain from providing the decision if it is not confident in the diagnosis. Such selective prediction (or abstention) approaches are usually based on the modeling predictive uncertainty of machine learning models involved. This study explores uncertainty quantification in machine learning models for medical text analysis, addressing diverse tasks across multiple datasets. We focus on binary mortality prediction from textual data in MIMIC-III, multi-label medical code prediction using ICD-10 codes from MIMIC-IV, and multi-class classification with a private outpatient visits dataset. Additionally, we analyze mental health datasets targeting depression and anxiety detection, utilizing various text-based sources, such as essays, social media posts, and clinical descriptions. In addition to comparing uncertainty methods, we introduce HUQ-2, a new state-of-the-art method for enhancing reliability in selective prediction tasks. Our results provide a detailed comparison of uncertainty quantification methods. They demonstrate the effectiveness of HUQ-2 in capturing and evaluating uncertainty, paving the way for more reliable and interpretable applications in medical text analysis.

Rectifying Conformity Scores for Better Conditional Coverage

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact marginal coverage. The transformation is based on an estimate of the conditional quantile of conformity scores. The resulting method is particularly beneficial for constructing adaptive confidence sets in multi-output problems where standard conformal quantile regression approaches have limited applicability. We develop a theoretical bound that captures the influence of the accuracy of the quantile estimate on the approximate conditional validity, unlike classical bounds for conformal prediction methods that only offer marginal coverage. We experimentally show that our method is highly adaptive to the local data structure and outperforms existing methods in terms of conditional coverage, improving the reliability of statistical inference in various applications.