LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models

Recent advancements in the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have paved the way for a myriad of groundbreaking applications in various fields. However, a significant challenge arises as these models often "hallucinate", i.e., fabricate facts without providing users an apparent means to discern the veracity of their statements. Uncertainty estimation (UE) methods are one path to safer, more responsible, and more effective use of LLMs. However, to date, research on UE methods for LLMs has been focused primarily on theoretical rather than engineering contributions. In this work, we tackle this issue by introducing LM-Polygraph, a framework with implementations of a battery of state-of-the-art UE methods for LLMs in text generation tasks, with unified program interfaces in Python. Additionally, it introduces an extendable benchmark for consistent evaluation of UE techniques by researchers, and a demo web application that enriches the standard chat dialog with confidence scores, empowering end-users to discern unreliable responses. LM-Polygraph is compatible with the most recent LLMs, including BLOOMz, LLaMA-2, ChatGPT, and GPT-4, and is designed to support future releases of similarly-styled LMs.

Embedded Ensembles: Infinite Width Limit and Operating Regimes

A memory efficient approach to ensembling neural networks is to share most weights among the ensembled models by means of a single reference network. We refer to this strategy as Embedded Ensembling (EE); its particular examples are BatchEnsembles and Monte-Carlo dropout ensembles. In this paper we perform a systematic theoretical and empirical analysis of embedded ensembles with different number of models. Theoretically, we use a Neural-Tangent-Kernel-based approach to derive the wide network limit of the gradient descent dynamics. In this limit, we identify two ensemble regimes - independent and collective - depending on the architecture and initialization strategy of ensemble models. We prove that in the independent regime the embedded ensemble behaves as an ensemble of independent models. We confirm our theoretical prediction with a wide range of experiments with finite networks, and further study empirically various effects such as transition between the two regimes, scaling of ensemble performance with the network width and number of models, and dependence of performance on a number of architecture and hyperparameter choices.