Introducing an Improved Information-Theoretic Measure of Predictive Uncertainty

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

Understanding the Effects of Dataset Characteristics on Offline Reinforcement Learning

In real world, affecting the environment by a weak policy can be expensive or very risky, therefore hampers real world applications of reinforcement learning. Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) can learn policies from a given dataset without interacting with the environment. However, the dataset is the only source of information for an Offline RL algorithm and determines the performance of the learned policy. We still lack studies on how dataset characteristics influence different Offline RL algorithms. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive empirical analysis of how dataset characteristics effect the performance of Offline RL algorithms for discrete action environments. A dataset is characterized by two metrics: (1) the average dataset return measured by the Trajectory Quality (TQ) and (2) the coverage measured by the State-Action Coverage (SACo). We found that variants of the off-policy Deep Q-Network family require datasets with high SACo to perform well. Algorithms that constrain the learned policy towards the given dataset perform well for datasets with high TQ or SACo. For datasets with high TQ, Behavior Cloning outperforms or performs similarly to the best Offline RL algorithms.