On the Equivalence of Random Network Distillation, Deep Ensembles, and Bayesian Inference

Uncertainty quantification is central to safe and efficient deployments of deep learning models, yet many computationally practical methods lack lacking rigorous theoretical motivation. Random network distillation (RND) is a lightweight technique that measures novelty via prediction errors against a fixed random target. While empirically effective, it has remained unclear what uncertainties RND measures and how its estimates relate to other approaches, e.g. Bayesian inference or deep ensembles. This paper establishes these missing theoretical connections by analyzing RND within the neural tangent kernel framework in the limit of infinite network width. Our analysis reveals two central findings in this limit: (1) The uncertainty signal from RND -- its squared self-predictive error -- is equivalent to the predictive variance of a deep ensemble. (2) By constructing a specific RND target function, we show that the RND error distribution can be made to mirror the centered posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian inference with wide neural networks. Based on this equivalence, we moreover devise a posterior sampling algorithm that generates i.i.d. samples from an exact Bayesian posterior predictive distribution using this modified \textit{Bayesian RND} model. Collectively, our findings provide a unified theoretical perspective that places RND within the principled frameworks of deep ensembles and Bayesian inference, and offer new avenues for efficient yet theoretically grounded uncertainty quantification methods.

Sparse Masked Attention Policies for Reliable Generalization

In reinforcement learning, abstraction methods that remove unnecessary information from the observation are commonly used to learn policies which generalize better to unseen tasks. However, these methods often overlook a crucial weakness: the function which extracts the reduced-information representation has unknown generalization ability in unseen observations. In this paper, we address this problem by presenting an information removal method which more reliably generalizes to new states. We accomplish this by using a learned masking function which operates on, and is integrated with, the attention weights within an attention-based policy network. We demonstrate that our method significantly improves policy generalization to unseen tasks in the Procgen benchmark compared to standard PPO and masking approaches.

Parallelizing Tree Search with Twice Sequential Monte Carlo

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) methods that leverage search are responsible for many milestone breakthroughs in RL. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) recently emerged as an alternative to the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm which drove these breakthroughs. SMC is easier to parallelize and more suitable to GPU acceleration. However, it also suffers from large variance and path degeneracy which prevent it from scaling well with increased search depth, i.e., increased sequential compute. To address these problems, we introduce Twice Sequential Monte Carlo Tree Search (TSMCTS). Across discrete and continuous environments TSMCTS outperforms the SMC baseline as well as a popular modern version of MCTS. Through variance reduction and mitigation of path degeneracy, TSMCTS scales favorably with sequential compute while retaining the properties that make SMC natural to parallelize.

Universal Value-Function Uncertainties

Estimating epistemic uncertainty in value functions is a crucial challenge for many aspects of reinforcement learning (RL), including efficient exploration, safe decision-making, and offline RL. While deep ensembles provide a robust method for quantifying value uncertainty, they come with significant computational overhead. Single-model methods, while computationally favorable, often rely on heuristics and typically require additional propagation mechanisms for myopic uncertainty estimates. In this work we introduce universal value-function uncertainties (UVU), which, similar in spirit to random network distillation (RND), quantify uncertainty as squared prediction errors between an online learner and a fixed, randomly initialized target network. Unlike RND, UVU errors reflect policy-conditional value uncertainty, incorporating the future uncertainties any given policy may encounter. This is due to the training procedure employed in UVU: the online network is trained using temporal difference learning with a synthetic reward derived from the fixed, randomly initialized target network. We provide an extensive theoretical analysis of our approach using neural tangent kernel (NTK) theory and show that in the limit of infinite network width, UVU errors are exactly equivalent to the variance of an ensemble of independent universal value functions. Empirically, we show that UVU achieves equal performance to large ensembles on challenging multi-task offline RL settings, while offering simplicity and substantial computational savings.

Bayesian Meta-Reinforcement Learning with Laplace Variational Recurrent Networks

Meta-reinforcement learning trains a single reinforcement learning agent on a distribution of tasks to quickly generalize to new tasks outside of the training set at test time. From a Bayesian perspective, one can interpret this as performing amortized variational inference on the posterior distribution over training tasks. Among the various meta-reinforcement learning approaches, a common method is to represent this distribution with a point-estimate using a recurrent neural network. We show how one can augment this point estimate to give full distributions through the Laplace approximation, either at the start of, during, or after learning, without modifying the base model architecture. With our approximation, we are able to estimate distribution statistics (e.g., the entropy) of non-Bayesian agents and observe that point-estimate based methods produce overconfident estimators while not satisfying consistency. Furthermore, when comparing our approach to full-distribution based learning of the task posterior, our method performs on par with variational baselines while having much fewer parameters.

How Ensembles of Distilled Policies Improve Generalisation in Reinforcement Learning

In the zero-shot policy transfer setting in reinforcement learning, the goal is to train an agent on a fixed set of training environments so that it can generalise to similar, but unseen, testing environments. Previous work has shown that policy distillation after training can sometimes produce a policy that outperforms the original in the testing environments. However, it is not yet entirely clear why that is, or what data should be used to distil the policy. In this paper, we prove, under certain assumptions, a generalisation bound for policy distillation after training. The theory provides two practical insights: for improved generalisation, you should 1) train an ensemble of distilled policies, and 2) distil it on as much data from the training environments as possible. We empirically verify that these insights hold in more general settings, when the assumptions required for the theory no longer hold. Finally, we demonstrate that an ensemble of policies distilled on a diverse dataset can generalise significantly better than the original agent.

VeRecycle: Reclaiming Guarantees from Probabilistic Certificates for Stochastic Dynamical Systems after Change

Autonomous systems operating in the real world encounter a range of uncertainties. Probabilistic neural Lyapunov certification is a powerful approach to proving safety of nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems. When faced with changes beyond the modeled uncertainties, e.g., unidentified obstacles, probabilistic certificates must be transferred to the new system dynamics. However, even when the changes are localized in a known part of the state space, state-of-the-art requires complete re-certification, which is particularly costly for neural certificates. We introduce VeRecycle, the first framework to formally reclaim guarantees for discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems. VeRecycle efficiently reuses probabilistic certificates when the system dynamics deviate only in a given subset of states. We present a general theoretical justification and algorithmic implementation. Our experimental evaluation shows scenarios where VeRecycle both saves significant computational effort and achieves competitive probabilistic guarantees in compositional neural control.

Trust-Region Twisted Policy Improvement

Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) has driven many recent breakthroughs in deep reinforcement learning (RL). However, scaling MCTS to parallel compute has proven challenging in practice which has motivated alternative planners like sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC). Many of these SMC methods adopt particle filters for smoothing through a reformulation of RL as a policy inference problem. Yet, persisting design choices of these particle filters often conflict with the aim of online planning in RL, which is to obtain a policy improvement at the start of planning. Drawing inspiration from MCTS, we tailor SMC planners specifically for RL by improving data generation within the planner through constrained action sampling and explicit terminal state handling, as well as improving policy and value target estimation. This leads to our Trust-Region Twisted SMC (TRT-SMC), which shows improved runtime and sample-efficiency over baseline MCTS and SMC methods in both discrete and continuous domains.

Contextual Similarity Distillation: Ensemble Uncertainties with a Single Model

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning and deep learning, with numerous applications ranging from efficient exploration and stable offline reinforcement learning to outlier detection in medical diagnostics. The scale of modern neural networks, however, complicates the use of many theoretically well-motivated approaches such as full Bayesian inference. Approximate methods like deep ensembles can provide reliable uncertainty estimates but still remain computationally expensive. In this work, we propose contextual similarity distillation, a novel approach that explicitly estimates the variance of an ensemble of deep neural networks with a single model, without ever learning or evaluating such an ensemble in the first place. Our method builds on the predictable learning dynamics of wide neural networks, governed by the neural tangent kernel, to derive an efficient approximation of the predictive variance of an infinite ensemble. Specifically, we reinterpret the computation of ensemble variance as a supervised regression problem with kernel similarities as regression targets. The resulting model can estimate predictive variance at inference time with a single forward pass, and can make use of unlabeled target-domain data or data augmentations to refine its uncertainty estimates. We empirically validate our method across a variety of out-of-distribution detection benchmarks and sparse-reward reinforcement learning environments. We find that our single-model method performs competitively and sometimes superior to ensemble-based baselines and serves as a reliable signal for efficient exploration. These results, we believe, position contextual similarity distillation as a principled and scalable alternative for uncertainty quantification in reinforcement learning and general deep learning.

Positive Experience Reflection for Agents in Interactive Text Environments

Intelligent agents designed for interactive environments face significant challenges in text-based games, a domain that demands complex reasoning and adaptability. While agents based on large language models (LLMs) using self-reflection have shown promise, they struggle when initially successful and exhibit reduced effectiveness when using smaller LLMs. We introduce Sweet&Sour, a novel approach that addresses these limitations in existing reflection methods by incorporating positive experiences and managed memory to enrich the context available to the agent at decision time. Our comprehensive analysis spans both closed- and open-source LLMs and demonstrates the effectiveness of Sweet&Sour in improving agent performance, particularly in scenarios where previous approaches fall short.