Predictive Inference with Weak Supervision

The expense of acquiring labels in large-scale statistical machine learning makes partially and weakly-labeled data attractive, though it is not always apparent how to leverage such data for model fitting or validation. We present a methodology to bridge the gap between partial supervision and validation, developing a conformal prediction framework to provide valid predictive confidence sets -- sets that cover a true label with a prescribed probability, independent of the underlying distribution -- using weakly labeled data. To do so, we introduce a (necessary) new notion of coverage and predictive validity, then develop several application scenarios, providing efficient algorithms for classification and several large-scale structured prediction problems. We corroborate the hypothesis that the new coverage definition allows for tighter and more informative (but valid) confidence sets through several experiments.

Fine-tuning is Fine in Federated Learning

We study the performance of federated learning algorithms and their variants in an asymptotic framework. Our starting point is the formulation of federated learning as a multi-criterion objective, where the goal is to minimize each client's loss using information from all of the clients. We propose a linear regression model, where, for a given client, we theoretically compare the performance of various algorithms in the high-dimensional asymptotic limit. This asymptotic multi-criterion approach naturally models the high-dimensional, many-device nature of federated learning and suggests that personalization is central to federated learning. Our theory suggests that Fine-tuned Federated Averaging (FTFA), i.e., Federated Averaging followed by local training, and the ridge regularized variant Ridge-tuned Federated Averaging (RTFA) are competitive with more sophisticated meta-learning and proximal-regularized approaches. In addition to being conceptually simpler, FTFA and RTFA are computationally more efficient than its competitors. We corroborate our theoretical claims with extensive experiments on federated versions of the EMNIST, CIFAR-100, Shakespeare, and Stack Overflow datasets.

Adapting to Function Difficulty and Growth Conditions in Private Optimization

We develop algorithms for private stochastic convex optimization that adapt to the hardness of the specific function we wish to optimize. While previous work provide worst-case bounds for arbitrary convex functions, it is often the case that the function at hand belongs to a smaller class that enjoys faster rates. Concretely, we show that for functions exhibiting $\kappa$-growth around the optimum, i.e., $f(x) \ge f(x^*) + \lambda \kappa^{-1} \|x-x^*\|_2^\kappa$ for $\kappa > 1$, our algorithms improve upon the standard ${\sqrt{d}}/{n\varepsilon}$ privacy rate to the faster $({\sqrt{d}}/{n\varepsilon})^{\tfrac{\kappa}{\kappa - 1}}$. Crucially, they achieve these rates without knowledge of the growth constant $\kappa$ of the function. Our algorithms build upon the inverse sensitivity mechanism, which adapts to instance difficulty (Asi & Duchi, 2020), and recent localization techniques in private optimization (Feldman et al., 2020). We complement our algorithms with matching lower bounds for these function classes and demonstrate that our adaptive algorithm is \emph{simultaneously} (minimax) optimal over all $\kappa \ge 1+c$ whenever $c = \Theta(1)$.

Private Adaptive Gradient Methods for Convex Optimization

We study adaptive methods for differentially private convex optimization, proposing and analyzing differentially private variants of a Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm with adaptive stepsizes, as well as the AdaGrad algorithm. We provide upper bounds on the regret of both algorithms and show that the bounds are (worst-case) optimal. As a consequence of our development, we show that our private versions of AdaGrad outperform adaptive SGD, which in turn outperforms traditional SGD in scenarios with non-isotropic gradients where (non-private) Adagrad provably outperforms SGD. The major challenge is that the isotropic noise typically added for privacy dominates the signal in gradient geometry for high-dimensional problems; approaches to this that effectively optimize over lower-dimensional subspaces simply ignore the actual problems that varying gradient geometries introduce. In contrast, we study non-isotropic clipping and noise addition, developing a principled theoretical approach; the consequent procedures also enjoy significantly stronger empirical performance than prior approaches.

On Misspecification in Prediction Problems and Robustness via Improper Learning

We study probabilistic prediction games when the underlying model is misspecified, investigating the consequences of predicting using an incorrect parametric model. We show that for a broad class of loss functions and parametric families of distributions, the regret of playing a "proper" predictor -- one from the putative model class -- relative to the best predictor in the same model class has lower bound scaling at least as $\sqrt{\gamma n}$, where $\gamma$ is a measure of the model misspecification to the true distribution in terms of total variation distance. In contrast, using an aggregation-based (improper) learner, one can obtain regret $d \log n$ for any underlying generating distribution, where $d$ is the dimension of the parameter; we exhibit instances in which this is unimprovable even over the family of all learners that may play distributions in the convex hull of the parametric family. These results suggest that simple strategies for aggregating multiple learners together should be more robust, and several experiments conform to this hypothesis.

Neural Bridge Sampling for Evaluating Safety-Critical Autonomous Systems

Learning-based methodologies increasingly find applications in safety-critical domains like autonomous driving and medical robotics. Due to the rare nature of dangerous events, real-world testing is prohibitively expensive and unscalable. In this work, we employ a probabilistic approach to safety evaluation in simulation, where we are concerned with computing the probability of dangerous events. We develop a novel rare-event simulation method that combines exploration, exploitation, and optimization techniques to find failure modes and estimate their rate of occurrence. We provide rigorous guarantees for the performance of our method in terms of both statistical and computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on a variety of scenarios, illustrating its usefulness as a tool for rapid sensitivity analysis and model comparison that are essential to developing and testing safety-critical autonomous systems.

Distributionally Robust Losses for Latent Covariate Mixtures

While modern large-scale datasets often consist of heterogeneous subpopulations---for example, multiple demographic groups or multiple text corpora---the standard practice of minimizing average loss fails to guarantee uniformly low losses across all subpopulations. We propose a convex procedure that controls the worst-case performance over all subpopulations of a given size. Our procedure comes with finite-sample (nonparametric) convergence guarantees on the worst-off subpopulation. Empirically, we observe on lexical similarity, wine quality, and recidivism prediction tasks that our worst-case procedure learns models that do well against unseen subpopulations.

Knowing what you know: valid confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel prediction

We develop conformal prediction methods for constructing valid predictive confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel problems without assumptions on the data generating distribution. A challenge here is that typical conformal prediction methods---which give marginal validity (coverage) guarantees---provide uneven coverage, in that they address easy examples at the expense of essentially ignoring difficult examples. By leveraging ideas from quantile regression, we build methods that always guarantee correct coverage but additionally provide (asymptotically optimal) conditional coverage for both multiclass and multilabel prediction problems. To address the potential challenge of exponentially large confidence sets in multilabel prediction, we build tree-structured classifiers that efficiently account for interactions between labels. Our methods can be bolted on top of any classification model---neural network, random forest, boosted tree---to guarantee its validity. We also provide an empirical evaluation suggesting the more robust coverage of our confidence sets.