Fourth-Moment Geometry of Rademacher Sums

Let $\varepsilon_1,\ldots,\varepsilon_n$ be independent Rademacher signs and let $a=(a_1,\ldots,a_n)\in\R^n$ satisfy the normalization below. For the normalized Rademacher sum, we determine how its higher moments depend on the fourth-order mass. Combining a sharp fixed-q moment envelope with a separate argument below the convexity threshold gives the Gaussian stability inequality for the full range $p\geq4$ of this linear-in-q bound. The same fourth-order framework determines the sharp finite dimensional $L_p/L_4$ Khintchine constant for $p\geq5$, with the flat coefficient vector as the extremizer. These results settle the conjectures of Jakimiuk and of Barański, Murawski, Nayar, and Oleszkiewicz stated below. We also prove Jakimiuk's conjectured quadratic stability estimate at $p=3$. The resulting bounds retain information about sparsity and effective dimension, with applications to Rademacher random projections and randomly signed errors; those applications are not developed further here. Their Laplace-transform form also gives coefficient-sensitive tail bounds. The proofs are discovered with substantial assistance from ChatGPT 5.6 Sol.

VALG: An Agentic System for ML Theory Research

Machine learning theory studies learning procedures through mathematical setups in which the data model, training protocol, oracle access, loss, metric, and randomness define the phenomenon that a theorem is meant to explain. Solving an open problem therefore requires the problem formulation, theorem target, and proof mechanism to be developed in concert. Researchers formulate hypotheses, test them through preliminary theoretical or empirical analysis, and refine both assumptions and proofs. We investigate whether this process can be organized as an autonomous agentic workflow for ML theory research. We develop VALG, an agentic system that combines multi-level Verification, Adaptive formulation of Learning-theory problems, and Graph-structured proof development. Within each source-relative theorem branch, VALG maintains a fixed mathematical specification, checks the theorem-level composition of a typed proof-dependency graph, and constructs and reviews local proofs in dependency order. When a proof attempt fails, VALG identifies whether the obstruction lies in a derivation, the proof structure, or the theorem formulation and routes the next attempt accordingly. Formulation-level obstructions initiate an explicitly related variant or relaxation, preserving the mathematical relation between the resulting theorem and the source problem. We evaluate VALG on nine subproblems from five COLT 2026 open problems. Two runs produce internally finalized theorem candidates that match the scope of their source briefs; the remaining seven yield restricted-method results, special cases, or conditional theorems. These case studies show how VALG keeps source-scope matches, relaxations, conditional results, and blocked attempts mathematically distinct. VALG is open source at https://github.com/DechenZhang/VALG-ML-Theory-Agent.

An Optimal Agnostic PAC Algorithm

Let $H\subseteq\{-1,+1\}^X$ be a class of finite VC dimension $d\ge1$. Writing $L$ for the binary risk and $L^*=\min_{h\in H}L(h)$, we construct a learner achieving the statistically optimal risk bound: from an i.i.d.\ sample of size $n$, for every $0<δ\le 1/2$, with probability at least $1-δ$, \[ L(\widehat h) \le L^*+ 7\cdot10^8\left( \sqrt{\frac{L^*(d+\log(1/δ))}{n}} +\frac{d+\log(1/δ)}{n} \right). \] This settles the sample complexity of agnostic PAC learning up to universal constants at every fixed $L^*$, matching the lower bounds of Devroye, Györfi, and Lugosi [A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition, Springer, 1996].

Distributionally Robust Listwise Preference Optimization

Existing robust preference optimization for language-model alignment mainly studies pairwise supervision and places robustness at the dataset, prompt, or preference-pair level. We instead study listwise preference optimization under ranking-label uncertainty: given a prompt and a candidate list, the observed ranking over that list may be ambiguous due to annotator inconsistency, near-ties, lossy rankwise feedback, or reward-model noise. We propose a pointwise total-variation robust Plackett--Luce objective that directly robustifies the ranking label conditional on the candidate list. The robust loss admits an exact decomposition into the nominal PL loss plus a worst-case PL correction, and the worst-case ranking is obtained by sorting current implicit scores in ascending order, reducing the inner maximization from $K!$ enumeration to $O(K\log K)$. This tractable structure yields strong offline and online optimization guarantees. In the offline fixed-list setting, the robust objective is convex and projected stochastic subgradient reaches global $ε$-suboptimality with $O(ε^{-2})$ sample complexity. In the online policy-induced setting, where candidate lists are generated by the current policy, we establish weak convexity and $\widetilde O(ε^{-2})$ Moreau-envelope stationarity. Experiments in offline LLM alignment show that the proposed robust correction largely preserves performance under clean labels and improves robustness under noise. In online alignment, it makes reward-model-ranked candidate expansion more reliable and improves both reward-model and external GPT-4 judge metrics.

What should post-training optimize? A test-time scaling law perspective

Large language models are increasingly deployed with test-time strategies: sample $N$ responses, score them with a reward model or verifier, and return the best. This deployment rule exposes a mismatch in post-training: standard objectives optimize the mean reward of a single response, whereas best-of-$N$ performance is governed by the upper tail of the reward distribution. Recent test-time-aware objectives partly address this mismatch, but typically assume that training can use the same per-prompt rollout budget as deployment, which is impractical when post-training must cover many prompts while deployment can allocate much larger per-prompt test-time compute. We study this budget-mismatch regime, where only $m\ll N$ per-prompt rollouts are available during training but the target objective is best-of-$N$ deployment. Under structural assumptions on the reward tails, we show that the policy gradient of the best-of-$N$ objective can be approximated from a much smaller rollout group by extrapolating upper-tail statistics. This yields a family of Tail-Extrapolated estimators for best-of-$N$-oriented post-training: a simple direct estimator, Tail-Extrapolated Advantage (TEA), and a fixed-order debiased Prefix-TEA estimator based on moment cancellation. Experiments on instruction-following tasks show that TEA and Prefix-TEA improve best-of-$N$ performance across different language models, reward models and datasets under various training and test-time budget settings.

Leave-One-Out Prediction for General Hypothesis Classes

Leave-one-out (LOO) prediction provides a principled, data-dependent measure of generalization, yet guarantees in fully transductive settings remain poorly understood beyond specialized models. We introduce Median of Level-Set Aggregation (MLSA), a general aggregation procedure based on empirical-risk level sets around the ERM. For arbitrary fixed datasets and losses satisfying a mild monotonicity condition, we establish a multiplicative oracle inequality for the LOO error of the form \[ LOO_S(\hat{h}) \;\le\; C \cdot \frac{1}{n} \min_{h\in H} L_S(h) \;+\; \frac{Comp(S,H,\ell)}{n}, \qquad C>1. \] The analysis is based on a local level-set growth condition controlling how the set of near-optimal empirical-risk minimizers expands as the tolerance increases. We verify this condition in several canonical settings. For classification with VC classes under the 0-1 loss, the resulting complexity scales as $O(d \log n)$, where $d$ is the VC dimension. For finite hypothesis and density classes under bounded or log loss, it scales as $O(\log |H|)$ and $O(\log |P|)$, respectively. For logistic regression with bounded covariates and parameters, a volumetric argument based on the empirical covariance matrix yields complexity scaling as $O(d \log n)$ up to problem-dependent factors.

Ratio Covers of Convex Sets and Optimal Mixture Density Estimation

We study density estimation in Kullback-Leibler divergence: given an i.i.d. sample from an unknown density $p$, the goal is to construct an estimator $\widehat p$ such that $\mathrm{KL}(p,\widehat p)$ is small with high probability. We consider two settings involving a finite dictionary of $M$ densities: (i) model aggregation, where $p$ belongs to the dictionary, and (ii) convex aggregation (mixture density estimation), where $p$ is a mixture of densities from the dictionary. Crucially, we make no assumption on the base densities: their ratios may be unbounded and their supports may differ. For both problems, we identify the best possible high-probability guarantees in terms of the dictionary size, sample size, and confidence level. These optimal rates are higher than those achievable when density ratios are bounded by absolute constants; for mixture density estimation, they match existing lower bounds in the special case of discrete distributions. Our analysis of the mixture case hinges on two new covering results. First, we provide a sharp, distribution-free upper bound on the local Hellinger entropy of the class of mixtures of $M$ distributions. Second, we prove an optimal ratio covering theorem for convex sets: for every convex compact set $K\subset \mathbb{R}_+^d$, there exists a subset $A\subset K$ with at most $2^{8d}$ elements such that each element of $K$ is coordinate-wise dominated by an element of $A$ up to a universal constant factor. This geometric result is of independent interest; notably, it yields new cardinality estimates for $\varepsilon$-approximate Pareto sets in multi-objective optimization when the attainable set of objective vectors is convex.

Data Reconstruction: Identifiability and Optimization with Sample Splitting

Training data reconstruction from KKT conditions has shown striking empirical success, yet it remains unclear when the resulting KKT equations have unique solutions and, even in identifiable regimes, how to reliably recover solutions by optimization. This work hereby focuses on these two complementary questions: identifiability and optimization. On the identifiability side, we discuss the sufficient conditions for KKT system of two-layer networks with polynomial activations to uniquely determine the training data, providing a theoretical explanation of when and why reconstruction is possible. On the optimization side, we introduce sample splitting, a curvature-aware refinement step applicable to general reconstruction objectives (not limited to KKT-based formulations): it creates additional descent directions to escape poor stationary points and refine solutions. Experiments demonstrate that augmenting several existing reconstruction methods with sample splitting consistently improves reconstruction performance.

Achieving Optimal Static and Dynamic Regret Simultaneously in Bandits with Deterministic Losses

In adversarial multi-armed bandits, two performance measures are commonly used: static regret, which compares the learner to the best fixed arm, and dynamic regret, which compares it to the best sequence of arms. While optimal algorithms are known for each measure individually, there is no known algorithm achieving optimal bounds for both simultaneously. Marinov and Zimmert [2021] first showed that such simultaneous optimality is impossible against an adaptive adversary. Our work takes a first step to demonstrate its possibility against an oblivious adversary when losses are deterministic. First, we extend the impossibility result of Marinov and Zimmert [2021] to the case of deterministic losses. Then, we present an algorithm achieving optimal static and dynamic regret simultaneously against an oblivious adversary. Together, they reveal a fundamental separation between adaptive and oblivious adversaries when multiple regret benchmarks are considered simultaneously. It also provides new insight into the long open problem of simultaneously achieving optimal regret against switching benchmarks of different numbers of switches. Our algorithm uses negative static regret to compensate for the exploration overhead incurred when controlling dynamic regret, and leverages Blackwell approachability to jointly control both regrets. This yields a new model selection procedure for bandits that may be of independent interest.

Predicting and improving test-time scaling laws via reward tail-guided search

Test-time scaling has emerged as a critical avenue for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Though the straight-forward ''best-of-$N$'' (BoN) strategy has already demonstrated significant improvements in performance, it lacks principled guidance on the choice of $N$, budget allocation, and multi-stage decision-making, thereby leaving substantial room for optimization. While many works have explored such optimization, rigorous theoretical guarantees remain limited. In this work, we propose new methodologies to predict and improve scaling properties via tail-guided search. By estimating the tail distribution of rewards, our method predicts the scaling law of LLMs without the need for exhaustive evaluations. Leveraging this prediction tool, we introduce Scaling-Law Guided (SLG) Search, a new test-time algorithm that dynamically allocates compute to identify and exploit intermediate states with the highest predicted potential. We theoretically prove that SLG achieves vanishing regret compared to perfect-information oracles, and achieves expected rewards that would otherwise require a polynomially larger compute budget required when using BoN. Empirically, we validate our framework across different LLMs and reward models, confirming that tail-guided allocation consistently achieves higher reward yields than Best-of-$N$ under identical compute budgets. Our code is available at https://github.com/PotatoJnny/Scaling-Law-Guided-search.