Improving Time Series Forecasting via Instance-aware Post-hoc Revision

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in various real-world applications and has attracted significant attention in recent decades. While recent methods have achieved remarkable accuracy by incorporating advanced inductive biases and training strategies, we observe that instance-level variations remain a significant challenge. These variations--stemming from distribution shifts, missing data, and long-tail patterns--often lead to suboptimal forecasts for specific instances, even when overall performance appears strong. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic framework, PIR, designed to enhance forecasting performance through Post-forecasting Identification and Revision. Specifically, PIR first identifies biased forecasting instances by estimating their accuracy. Based on this, the framework revises the forecasts using contextual information, including covariates and historical time series, from both local and global perspectives in a post-processing fashion. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with mainstream forecasting models demonstrate that PIR effectively mitigates instance-level errors and significantly improves forecasting reliability.

A Survey of Models for Cognitive Diagnosis: New Developments and Future Directions

Cognitive diagnosis has been developed for decades as an effective measurement tool to evaluate human cognitive status such as ability level and knowledge mastery. It has been applied to a wide range of fields including education, sport, psychological diagnosis, etc. By providing better awareness of cognitive status, it can serve as the basis for personalized services such as well-designed medical treatment, teaching strategy and vocational training. This paper aims to provide a survey of current models for cognitive diagnosis, with more attention on new developments using machine learning-based methods. By comparing the model structures, parameter estimation algorithms, model evaluation methods and applications, we provide a relatively comprehensive review of the recent trends in cognitive diagnosis models. Further, we discuss future directions that are worthy of exploration. In addition, we release two Python libraries: EduData for easy access to some relevant public datasets we have collected, and EduCDM that implements popular CDMs to facilitate both applications and research purposes.

Efficiently Measuring the Cognitive Ability of LLMs: An Adaptive Testing Perspective

Large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, have shown some human-like cognitive abilities. For comparing these abilities of different models, several benchmarks (i.e. sets of standard test questions) from different fields (e.g., Literature, Biology and Psychology) are often adopted and the test results under traditional metrics such as accuracy, recall and F1, are reported. However, such way for evaluating LLMs can be inefficient and inaccurate from the cognitive science perspective. Inspired by Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) used in psychometrics, we propose an adaptive testing framework for LLM evaluation. Rather than using a standard test set and simply reporting accuracy, this approach dynamically adjusts the characteristics of the test questions, such as difficulty, based on the model's performance. This allows for a more accurate estimation of the model's abilities, using fewer questions. More importantly, it allows LLMs to be compared with humans easily, which is essential for NLP models that aim for human-level ability. Our diagnostic reports have found that ChatGPT often behaves like a ``careless student'', prone to slip and occasionally guessing the questions. We conduct a fine-grained diagnosis and rank the latest 6 instruction-tuned LLMs from three aspects of Subject Knowledge, Mathematical Reasoning, and Programming, where GPT4 can outperform other models significantly and reach the cognitive ability of middle-level students. Different tests for different models using efficient adaptive testing -- we believe this has the potential to become a new norm in evaluating large language models.