Generalized Beliefs for Cooperative AI

Self-play is a common paradigm for constructing solutions in Markov games that can yield optimal policies in collaborative settings. However, these policies often adopt highly-specialized conventions that make playing with a novel partner difficult. To address this, recent approaches rely on encoding symmetry and convention-awareness into policy training, but these require strong environmental assumptions and can complicate policy training. We therefore propose moving the learning of conventions to the belief space. Specifically, we propose a belief learning model that can maintain beliefs over rollouts of policies not seen at training time, and can thus decode and adapt to novel conventions at test time. We show how to leverage this model for both search and training of a best response over various pools of policies to greatly improve ad-hoc teamplay. We also show how our setup promotes explainability and interpretability of nuanced agent conventions.

Biological Evolution and Genetic Algorithms: Exploring the Space of Abstract Tile Self-Assembly

A physically-motivated genetic algorithm (GA) and full enumeration for a tile-based model of self-assembly (JaTAM) is implemented using a graphics processing unit (GPU). We observe performance gains with respect to state-of-the-art implementations on CPU of factor 7.7 for the GA and 2.9 for JaTAM. The correctness of our GA implementation is demonstrated using a test-bed fitness function, and our JaTAM implementation is verified by classifying a well-known search space $S_{2,8}$ based on two tile types. The performance gains achieved allow for the classification of a larger search space $S^{32}_{3,8}$ based on three tile types. The prevalence of structures based on two tile types demonstrates that simple organisms emerge preferrably even in complex ecosystems. The modularity of the largest structures found motivates the assumption that to first order, $S_{2,8}$ forms the building blocks of $S_{3,8}$. We conclude that GPUs may play an important role in future studies of evolutionary dynamics.

Model-Free Opponent Shaping

In general-sum games, the interaction of self-interested learning agents commonly leads to collectively worst-case outcomes, such as defect-defect in the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). To overcome this, some methods, such as Learning with Opponent-Learning Awareness (LOLA), shape their opponents' learning process. However, these methods are myopic since only a small number of steps can be anticipated, are asymmetric since they treat other agents as naive learners, and require the use of higher-order derivatives, which are calculated through white-box access to an opponent's differentiable learning algorithm. To address these issues, we propose Model-Free Opponent Shaping (M-FOS). M-FOS learns in a meta-game in which each meta-step is an episode of the underlying ("inner") game. The meta-state consists of the inner policies, and the meta-policy produces a new inner policy to be used in the next episode. M-FOS then uses generic model-free optimisation methods to learn meta-policies that accomplish long-horizon opponent shaping. Empirically, M-FOS near-optimally exploits naive learners and other, more sophisticated algorithms from the literature. For example, to the best of our knowledge, it is the first method to learn the well-known Zero-Determinant (ZD) extortion strategy in the IPD. In the same settings, M-FOS leads to socially optimal outcomes under meta-self-play. Finally, we show that M-FOS can be scaled to high-dimensional settings.

Mirror Learning: A Unifying Framework of Policy Optimisation

Modern deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are motivated by either the general policy improvement (GPI) or trust-region learning (TRL) frameworks. However, algorithms that strictly respect these theoretical frameworks have proven unscalable. Surprisingly, the only known scalable algorithms violate the GPI/TRL assumptions, e.g. due to required regularisation or other heuristics. The current explanation of their empirical success is essentially "by analogy": they are deemed approximate adaptations of theoretically sound methods. Unfortunately, studies have shown that in practice these algorithms differ greatly from their conceptual ancestors. In contrast, in this paper we introduce a novel theoretical framework, named Mirror Learning, which provides theoretical guarantees to a large class of algorithms, including TRPO and PPO. While the latter two exploit the flexibility of our framework, GPI and TRL fit in merely as pathologically restrictive corner cases thereof. This suggests that the empirical performance of state-of-the-art methods is a direct consequence of their theoretical properties, rather than of aforementioned approximate analogies. Mirror learning sets us free to boldly explore novel, theoretically sound RL algorithms, a thus far uncharted wonderland.

Fixed Points in Cyber Space: Rethinking Optimal Evasion Attacks in the Age of AI-NIDS

Cyber attacks are increasing in volume, frequency, and complexity. In response, the security community is looking toward fully automating cyber defense systems using machine learning. However, so far the resultant effects on the coevolutionary dynamics of attackers and defenders have not been examined. In this whitepaper, we hypothesise that increased automation on both sides will accelerate the coevolutionary cycle, thus begging the question of whether there are any resultant fixed points, and how they are characterised. Working within the threat model of Locked Shields, Europe's largest cyberdefense exercise, we study blackbox adversarial attacks on network classifiers. Given already existing attack capabilities, we question the utility of optimal evasion attack frameworks based on minimal evasion distances. Instead, we suggest a novel reinforcement learning setting that can be used to efficiently generate arbitrary adversarial perturbations. We then argue that attacker-defender fixed points are themselves general-sum games with complex phase transitions, and introduce a temporally extended multi-agent reinforcement learning framework in which the resultant dynamics can be studied. We hypothesise that one plausible fixed point of AI-NIDS may be a scenario where the defense strategy relies heavily on whitelisted feature flow subspaces. Finally, we demonstrate that a continual learning approach is required to study attacker-defender dynamics in temporally extended general-sum games.

Implicit Communication as Minimum Entropy Coupling

In many common-payoff games, achieving good performance requires players to develop protocols for communicating their private information implicitly -- i.e., using actions that have non-communicative effects on the environment. Multi-agent reinforcement learning practitioners typically approach this problem using independent learning methods in the hope that agents will learn implicit communication as a byproduct of expected return maximization. Unfortunately, independent learning methods are incapable of doing this in many settings. In this work, we isolate the implicit communication problem by identifying a class of partially observable common-payoff games, which we call implicit referential games, whose difficulty can be attributed to implicit communication. Next, we introduce a principled method based on minimum entropy coupling that leverages the structure of implicit referential games, yielding a new perspective on implicit communication. Lastly, we show that this method can discover performant implicit communication protocols in settings with very large spaces of messages.

RainBench: Towards Global Precipitation Forecasting from Satellite Imagery

Extreme precipitation events, such as violent rainfall and hail storms, routinely ravage economies and livelihoods around the developing world. Climate change further aggravates this issue. Data-driven deep learning approaches could widen the access to accurate multi-day forecasts, to mitigate against such events. However, there is currently no benchmark dataset dedicated to the study of global precipitation forecasts. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{RainBench}, a new multi-modal benchmark dataset for data-driven precipitation forecasting. It includes simulated satellite data, a selection of relevant meteorological data from the ERA5 reanalysis product, and IMERG precipitation data. We also release \textbf{PyRain}, a library to process large precipitation datasets efficiently. We present an extensive analysis of our novel dataset and establish baseline results for two benchmark medium-range precipitation forecasting tasks. Finally, we discuss existing data-driven weather forecasting methodologies and suggest future research avenues.