Rule of Thumb: Explaining Artificial Intelligence Systems using Partial Information

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) seeks to explain how an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system arrived at a particular decision. We propose ''Rule of Thumb'' (RoT) explanations, a new approach to XAI based upon a novel formulation that identifies the most relevant features for predicting the behaviour of an AI system, for a particular datapoint. We show how RoT is well-suited to enable XAI in: (a) zero-shot classification using large language models (LLMs), (b) auditing of opaque AI systems without model access, and (c) the use of AI in scientific discovery. Additionally, RoT meets specific requirements from leading AI regulations, provides a familiar interface and visualisations for XAI practitioners, is model-agnostic, and is substantially faster than alternatives. Code available at: https://github.com/KaiRawal/Rule-of-Thumb-Explaining-Artificial-Intelligence-Systems-using-Partial-Information

A Technical Typology of AI Systems in Public Administration

Research on artificial intelligence (AI) in the public sector often treats "AI" as a single category, neglecting technical distinctions between different AI systems. But these distinctions affect how different systems impact core public values like accountability, procedural justice, and non-discrimination. This paper argues that public administration research would benefit from more technical precision on "AI" and makes three contributions to this end. First, we introduce a typology of five categories of AI systems: hand-coded, glass-box, black-box, general-purpose, and agentic systems. We calibrate the typology to public administration by grouping system types by their distinct implications for public values. Second, we evaluate technical precision in recent public administration research about AI by coding 91 highly-cited papers (2019-2025) using our typology. We find widespread imprecision: most papers (55\%) leave the studied system underspecified, 31\% motivate their work with a different system than they study, and 41\% make more general conclusions than the studied system supports. Finally, we give practical recommendations for future research. We highlight common pitfalls to avoid, and suggest that researchers should, at a minimum, provide enough technical detail to locate the studied system in our typology. To this end, we provide a practical guide -- a short set of diagnostic questions answerable from public information and without specialist technical knowledge.

The Heterogeneous Safety Impacts of Benign Multilingual Fine-Tuning

Fine-tuning a large language model is a ubiquitous method for enhancing its capability on a specific downstream task. However, prior work has shown that this increase in capability comes with a cost: it can increase a model's tendency to respond to unsafe adversarial prompts, even when fine-tuning with non-adversarial data. We present the first comprehensive empirical study of this phenomenon in multilingual settings by fine-tuning Llama-3.2, Qwen3, and Gemma-3 models using benign data translated across nine languages. We find that safety outcomes are highly sensitive to both the choice of fine-tuning language and the evaluation language, with adversarial compliance rates increasing four-fold in some settings. Multilingual safety drift is decoupled from general capability metrics, and occurs heterogeneously across languages and models. Fine-tuning in non-English languages often induces smaller internal representational drifts than English, but these shifts lead models to default to either exaggerated compliance or refusal. As such, assessing fine-tuning impacts solely in English provides inadequate assurance for deployment. To facilitate further research into these cross-lingual safety blind spots, we release the Multilingual-Benign-Tune dataset and the SORRY-Bench-Multilingual evaluation suite.

Running the Gauntlet: Re-evaluating the Capabilities of Agents Beyond Familiar Environments

As agentic systems continue to evolve and are widely deployed in real-world scenarios, there is a growing demand to faithfully evaluate their capabilities. However, current benchmarks are typically built on popular applications with relatively simple tasks and focus on a narrow set of capabilities while overlooking broader dimensions, resulting in saturated performance on modern agents and failing to probe their limitations. To this end, we introduce GauntletBench, a web-based benchmark for evaluating agent generalisation in challenging scenarios, focusing on three underexplored capabilities (temporal perception, graphical understanding, and 3D reasoning), across five less-covered professional applications (Video Editor, Workflow Builder, 3D Modeller, Flight Analyser, and Circuit Designer), each with 20 vision-intensive tasks (100 in total). Our benchmark provides a modular pipeline that comprises an environment compatible with both open- and closed-source agent frameworks, a controlled web-based application, a well-structured task suite, and an automated evaluation engine with diverse metrics. Contrary to widespread expectations, our empirical results reveal that frontier agentic systems remain far from achieving human-level performance. Even the state-of-the-art agent achieves only a 19.1% success rate on our GauntletBench, highlighting the limitations in these overlooked capabilities and generalisation. By comparison, non-expert human annotators achieve over 80% success on our challenging yet feasible tasks, revealing the substantial gap between current agent capabilities and those required for complex real-world scenarios.

Adaptive Calibration for Fair and Performant Facial Recognition

We introduce Adaptive Calibration (AC), a novel calibration strategy for facial recognition that maps cosine similarity between normalized embeddings to well-calibrated probabilities. By incorporating local context into calibration, Adaptive Calibration corrects for a fundamental mismatch in cosine similarity, whereby the same distance can correspond to different match probabilities in different embedding regions. Our approach improves both overall performance and results in a fairer calibration without requiring demographic metadata. Our approach consistently dominates existing methods both on accuracy and fairness metrics across a variety of pretrained models and standard benchmarks. AC provides a practical solution for equitable facial recognition, without requiring demographic group annotations, and while improving overall performance. Unlike existing approaches, our method provides continuous, region-specific calibration that avoids "leveling down" where fairness comes at the cost of degraded performance for some groups.

Toward Calibrated, Fair, and accurate Deepfake Detection

Deepfake detectors show large performance gaps across demographic groups. Existing fairness approaches require demographic labels, retraining, or sacrifice accuracy. We introduce Face-Fairness (FF), a plug-and-play framework for bias mitigation. Our primary contribution, Face-Feature Tuning (FFT), is the first demographic label-free fairness method demonstrated for deepfake detection: a lightweight calibrator that performs a logit remapping conditioned on frozen face embeddings. We complement FFT with two variants: FF-Max, which maximizes worst-group accuracy when demographics are available, and FF-Discover, which does the same with embedding-discovered groups. Across in-domain and cross-dataset test settings, FF consistently reduces FPR/TPR gaps and improves minimum group accuracy while maintaining (often improving) overall accuracy. The approach is detector-agnostic, adds negligible runtime overhead, and requires no access to identity attributes.

Grounding Text Embeddings in Stakeholder Associations

Text embeddings are widely used to analyse large corpora of complex texts. However, it is unclear whether the embeddings capture the same semantic distances as the human experts using them. Ensuring alignment between embedding representations and human intentions is essential for valid analyses. We present the Stakeholder Grounding Exercise, a method for making expert associations explicit and grounding embedding model results in human understanding. In our primary case study on Danish policy issues, we find that neural text embeddings are substantially less reliable than human experts (19-26 pp gap), and that this misalignment propagates to downstream clustering performance (Spearman $ρ=0.9$ between exercise ranking and cluster quality). A secondary study on US Federal AI use cases replicates the gap (16pp) in English, using a digital protocol and a different community of experts -- demonstrating that the gap is not an artefact of a single instrument or domain. The Stakeholder Grounding Exercise offers a practical method for assessing whether embedding models capture the semantic distinctions that matter most to domain experts.

Known By Their Actions: Fingerprinting LLM Browser Agents via UI Traces

As LLM-based agents increasingly browse the web on users' behalf, a natural question arises: can websites passively identify which underlying model powers an agent? Doing so would represent a significant security risk, enabling targeted attacks tailored to known model vulnerabilities. Across 14 frontier LLMs and four web environments spanning information retrieval and shopping tasks, we show that an agent's actions and interaction timings, captured via a passive JavaScript tracker, are sufficient to identify the underlying model with up to 96\% F1. We formalise this attack surface by demonstrating that classifiers trained on agent actions generalise across model sizes and families. We further show that strong classifiers can be trained from few interaction traces and that agent identity can be inferred early within an episode. Injecting randomised timing delays between actions substantially degrades classifier performance, but does not provide robust protection: a classifier retrained on delayed traces largely recovers performance. We release our harness and a labelled corpus of agent traces \href{https://github.com/KabakaWilliam/known_actions}{here}.

LLMs Encode Their Failures: Predicting Success from Pre-Generation Activations

Running LLMs with extended reasoning on every problem is expensive, but determining which inputs actually require additional compute remains challenging. We investigate whether their own likelihood of success is recoverable from their internal representations before generation, and if this signal can guide more efficient inference. We train linear probes on pre-generation activations to predict policy-specific success on math and coding tasks, substantially outperforming surface features such as question length and TF-IDF. Using E2H-AMC, which provides both human and model performance on identical problems, we show that models encode a model-specific notion of difficulty that is distinct from human difficulty, and that this distinction increases with extended reasoning. Leveraging these probes, we demonstrate that routing queries across a pool of models can exceed the best-performing model whilst reducing inference cost by up to 70\% on MATH, showing that internal representations enable practical efficiency gains even when they diverge from human intuitions about difficulty. Our code is available at: https://github.com/KabakaWilliam/llms_know_difficulty

Agent Benchmarks Fail Public Sector Requirements

Deploying Large Language Model-based agents (LLM agents) in the public sector requires assuring that they meet the stringent legal, procedural, and structural requirements of public-sector institutions. Practitioners and researchers often turn to benchmarks for such assessments. However, it remains unclear what criteria benchmarks must meet to ensure they adequately reflect public-sector requirements, or how many existing benchmarks do so. In this paper, we first define such criteria based on a first-principles survey of public administration literature: benchmarks must be \emph{process-based}, \emph{realistic}, \emph{public-sector-specific} and report \emph{metrics} that reflect the unique requirements of the public sector. We analyse more than 1,300 benchmark papers for these criteria using an expert-validated LLM-assisted pipeline. Our results show that no single benchmark meets all of the criteria. Our findings provide a call to action for both researchers to develop public sector-relevant benchmarks and for public-sector officials to apply these criteria when evaluating their own agentic use cases.