CO-BED: Information-Theoretic Contextual Optimization via Bayesian Experimental Design

We formalize the problem of contextual optimization through the lens of Bayesian experimental design and propose CO-BED -- a general, model-agnostic framework for designing contextual experiments using information-theoretic principles. After formulating a suitable information-based objective, we employ black-box variational methods to simultaneously estimate it and optimize the designs in a single stochastic gradient scheme. We further introduce a relaxation scheme to allow discrete actions to be accommodated. As a result, CO-BED provides a general and automated solution to a wide range of contextual optimization problems. We illustrate its effectiveness in a number of experiments, where CO-BED demonstrates competitive performance even when compared to bespoke, model-specific alternatives.

Learnable Topological Features for Phylogenetic Inference via Graph Neural Networks

Structural information of phylogenetic tree topologies plays an important role in phylogenetic inference. However, finding appropriate topological structures for specific phylogenetic inference tasks often requires significant design effort and domain expertise. In this paper, we propose a novel structural representation method for phylogenetic inference based on learnable topological features. By combining the raw node features that minimize the Dirichlet energy with modern graph representation learning techniques, our learnable topological features can provide efficient structural information of phylogenetic trees that automatically adapts to different downstream tasks without requiring domain expertise. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method on a simulated data tree probability estimation task and a benchmark of challenging real data variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference problems.

Causal-Discovery Performance of ChatGPT in the context of Neuropathic Pain Diagnosis

ChatGPT has demonstrated exceptional proficiency in natural language conversation, e.g., it can answer a wide range of questions while no previous large language models can. Thus, we would like to push its limit and explore its ability to answer causal discovery questions by using a medical benchmark (Tu et al. 2019) in causal discovery.

WSC-Trans: A 3D network model for automatic multi-structural segmentation of temporal bone CT

Cochlear implantation is currently the most effective treatment for patients with severe deafness, but mastering cochlear implantation is extremely challenging because the temporal bone has extremely complex and small three-dimensional anatomical structures, and it is important to avoid damaging the corresponding structures when performing surgery. The spatial location of the relevant anatomical tissues within the target area needs to be determined using CT prior to the procedure. Considering that the target structures are too small and complex, the time required for manual segmentation is too long, and it is extremely challenging to segment the temporal bone and its nearby anatomical structures quickly and accurately. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a deep learning-based algorithm, a 3D network model for automatic segmentation of multi-structural targets in temporal bone CT that can automatically segment the cochlea, facial nerve, auditory tubercle, vestibule and semicircular canal. The algorithm combines CNN and Transformer for feature extraction and takes advantage of spatial attention and channel attention mechanisms to further improve the segmentation effect, the experimental results comparing with the results of various existing segmentation algorithms show that the dice similarity scores, Jaccard coefficients of all targets anatomical structures are significantly higher while HD95 and ASSD scores are lower, effectively proving that our method outperforms other advanced methods.

SAM-RL: Sensing-Aware Model-Based Reinforcement Learning via Differentiable Physics-Based Simulation and Rendering

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is recognized with the potential to be significantly more sample efficient than model-free RL. How an accurate model can be developed automatically and efficiently from raw sensory inputs (such as images), especially for complex environments and tasks, is a challenging problem that hinders the broad application of MBRL in the real world. In this work, we propose a sensing-aware model-based reinforcement learning system called SAM-RL. Leveraging the differentiable physics-based simulation and rendering, SAM-RL automatically updates the model by comparing rendered images with real raw images and produces the policy efficiently. With the sensing-aware learning pipeline, SAM-RL allows a robot to select an informative viewpoint to monitor the task process. We apply our framework to real-world experiments for accomplishing three manipulation tasks: robotic assembly, tool manipulation, and deformable object manipulation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SAM-RL via extensive experiments. Supplemental materials and videos are available on our project webpage at https://sites.google.com/view/sam-rl.

Rhino: Deep Causal Temporal Relationship Learning With History-dependent Noise

Discovering causal relationships between different variables from time series data has been a long-standing challenge for many domains such as climate science, finance, and healthcare. Given the complexity of real-world relationships and the nature of observations in discrete time, causal discovery methods need to consider non-linear relations between variables, instantaneous effects and history-dependent noise (the change of noise distribution due to past actions). However, previous works do not offer a solution addressing all these problems together. In this paper, we propose a novel causal relationship learning framework for time-series data, called Rhino, which combines vector auto-regression, deep learning and variational inference to model non-linear relationships with instantaneous effects while allowing the noise distribution to be modulated by historical observations. Theoretically, we prove the structural identifiability of Rhino. Our empirical results from extensive synthetic experiments and two real-world benchmarks demonstrate better discovery performance compared to relevant baselines, with ablation studies revealing its robustness under model misspecification.

Learn the Time to Learn: Replay Scheduling in Continual Learning

Replay methods have shown to be successful in mitigating catastrophic forgetting in continual learning scenarios despite having limited access to historical data. However, storing historical data is cheap in many real-world applications, yet replaying all historical data would be prohibited due to processing time constraints. In such settings, we propose learning the time to learn for a continual learning system, in which we learn replay schedules over which tasks to replay at different time steps. To demonstrate the importance of learning the time to learn, we first use Monte Carlo tree search to find the proper replay schedule and show that it can outperform fixed scheduling policies in terms of continual learning performance. Moreover, to improve the scheduling efficiency itself, we propose to use reinforcement learning to learn the replay scheduling policies that can generalize to new continual learning scenarios without added computational cost. In our experiments, we show the advantages of learning the time to learn, which brings current continual learning research closer to real-world needs.

Optimistic Optimization of Gaussian Process Samples

Bayesian optimization is a popular formalism for global optimization, but its computational costs limit it to expensive-to-evaluate functions. A competing, computationally more efficient, global optimization framework is optimistic optimization, which exploits prior knowledge about the geometry of the search space in form of a dissimilarity function. We investigate to which degree the conceptual advantages of Bayesian Optimization can be combined with the computational efficiency of optimistic optimization. By mapping the kernel to a dissimilarity, we obtain an optimistic optimization algorithm for the Bayesian Optimization setting with a run-time of up to $\mathcal{O}(N \log N)$. As a high-level take-away we find that, when using stationary kernels on objectives of relatively low evaluation cost, optimistic optimization can be strongly preferable over Bayesian optimization, while for strongly coupled and parametric models, good implementations of Bayesian optimization can perform much better, even at low evaluation cost. We argue that there is a new research domain between geometric and probabilistic search, i.e. methods that run drastically faster than traditional Bayesian optimization, while retaining some of the crucial functionality of Bayesian optimization.

NeurIPS Competition Instructions and Guide: Causal Insights for Learning Paths in Education

In this competition, participants will address two fundamental causal challenges in machine learning in the context of education using time-series data. The first is to identify the causal relationships between different constructs, where a construct is defined as the smallest element of learning. The second challenge is to predict the impact of learning one construct on the ability to answer questions on other constructs. Addressing these challenges will enable optimisation of students' knowledge acquisition, which can be deployed in a real edtech solution impacting millions of students. Participants will run these tasks in an idealised environment with synthetic data and a real-world scenario with evaluation data collected from a series of A/B tests.

Efficient Real-world Testing of Causal Decision Making via Bayesian Experimental Design for Contextual Optimisation

The real-world testing of decisions made using causal machine learning models is an essential prerequisite for their successful application. We focus on evaluating and improving contextual treatment assignment decisions: these are personalised treatments applied to e.g. customers, each with their own contextual information, with the aim of maximising a reward. In this paper we introduce a model-agnostic framework for gathering data to evaluate and improve contextual decision making through Bayesian Experimental Design. Specifically, our method is used for the data-efficient evaluation of the regret of past treatment assignments. Unlike approaches such as A/B testing, our method avoids assigning treatments that are known to be highly sub-optimal, whilst engaging in some exploration to gather pertinent information. We achieve this by introducing an information-based design objective, which we optimise end-to-end. Our method applies to discrete and continuous treatments. Comparing our information-theoretic approach to baselines in several simulation studies demonstrates the superior performance of our proposed approach.