Bayesian Optimization-based Tire Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation for Real-World Data

This work presents a methodology to estimate tire parameters and their uncertainty using a Bayesian optimization approach. The literature mainly considers the estimation of tire parameters but lacks an evaluation of the parameter identification quality and the required slip ratios for an adequate model fit. Therefore, we examine the use of Stochastical Variational Inference as a methodology to estimate both - the parameters and their uncertainties. We evaluate the method compared to a state-of-the-art Nelder-Mead algorithm for theoretical and real-world application. The theoretical study considers parameter fitting at different slip ratios to evaluate the required excitation for an adequate fitting of each parameter. The results are compared to a sensitivity analysis for a Pacejka Magic Formula tire model. We show the application of the algorithm on real-world data acquired during the Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League and highlight the uncertainties in identifying the curvature and shape parameters due to insufficient excitation. The gathered insights can help assess the acquired data's limitations and instead utilize standardized parameters until higher slip ratios are captured. We show that our proposed method can be used to assess the mean values and the uncertainties of tire model parameters in real-world conditions and derive actions for the tire modeling based on our simulative study.

MAGIC: Near-Optimal Data Attribution for Deep Learning

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

Purposefully Induced Psychosis (PIP): Embracing Hallucination as Imagination in Large Language Models

Hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely regarded as errors - outputs that deviate from factual accuracy. However, in creative or exploratory contexts, these "mistakes" may represent unexpected avenues for innovation. We introduce Purposefully Induced Psychosis (PIP), a novel approach that amplifies LLM hallucinations for imaginative tasks such as speculative fiction, interactive storytelling, and mixed-reality simulations. Drawing on Herman Melville's Moby-Dick, where Pip's "madness" reveals profound insight, we reframe hallucinations as a source of computational imagination rather than a flaw. Our method fine-tunes LLMs to encourage speculative, metaphorical, and surreal outputs - hallucinations that are useful when factual accuracy is not the chief objective. Inspired by the consensual illusions of theater and stage magic, PIP situates these creative missteps in contexts where users willingly suspend disbelief, thereby transforming "errors" into catalysts for new ways of thinking. We discuss potential applications, design principles for ensuring user consent, preliminary observations, and implications for broader AI ethics and human-AI collaboration.

Learning to erase quantum states: thermodynamic implications of quantum learning theory

The energy cost of erasing quantum states depends on our knowledge of the states. We show that learning algorithms can acquire such knowledge to erase many copies of an unknown state at the optimal energy cost. This is proved by showing that learning can be made fully reversible and has no fundamental energy cost itself. With simple counting arguments, we relate the energy cost of erasing quantum states to their complexity, entanglement, and magic. We further show that the constructed erasure protocol is computationally efficient when learning is efficient. Conversely, under standard cryptographic assumptions, we prove that the optimal energy cost cannot be achieved efficiently in general. These results also enable efficient work extraction based on learning. Together, our results establish a concrete connection between quantum learning theory and thermodynamics, highlighting the physical significance of learning processes and enabling efficient learning-based protocols for thermodynamic tasks.

Capturing AI's Attention: Physics of Repetition, Hallucination, Bias and Beyond

We derive a first-principles physics theory of the AI engine at the heart of LLMs' 'magic' (e.g. ChatGPT, Claude): the basic Attention head. The theory allows a quantitative analysis of outstanding AI challenges such as output repetition, hallucination and harmful content, and bias (e.g. from training and fine-tuning). Its predictions are consistent with large-scale LLM outputs. Its 2-body form suggests why LLMs work so well, but hints that a generalized 3-body Attention would make such AI work even better. Its similarity to a spin-bath means that existing Physics expertise could immediately be harnessed to help Society ensure AI is trustworthy and resilient to manipulation.

These Magic Moments: Differentiable Uncertainty Quantification of Radiance Field Models

This paper introduces a novel approach to uncertainty quantification for radiance fields by leveraging higher-order moments of the rendering equation. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for downstream tasks including view planning and scene understanding, where safety and robustness are paramount. However, the high dimensionality and complexity of radiance fields pose significant challenges for uncertainty quantification, limiting the use of these uncertainty quantification methods in high-speed decision-making. We demonstrate that the probabilistic nature of the rendering process enables efficient and differentiable computation of higher-order moments for radiance field outputs, including color, depth, and semantic predictions. Our method outperforms existing radiance field uncertainty estimation techniques while offering a more direct, computationally efficient, and differentiable formulation without the need for post-processing. Beyond uncertainty quantification, we also illustrate the utility of our approach in downstream applications such as next-best-view (NBV) selection and active ray sampling for neural radiance field training. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world scenes confirm the efficacy of our approach, which achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining simplicity.

Pareidolic Illusions of Meaning: ChatGPT, Pseudolaw and the Triumph of Form over Substance

The early 2020s has seen the rise of two strange and potentially quite impactful social phenomena, namely pseudolaw, where users rely upon pseudolegal arguments that mimic the form and ritual of legal argumentation but fundamentally distort the content of law, and generative AI/LLMs, which generate content that uses probabilistic calculations to create outputs that look like human generated text. This article argues that the juxtaposition of the two phenomena helps to reveal that they both share two fundamental traits as both elevate form and appearance over substance and content, and users of both routinely mistake the form for the substance. In drawing upon legal theory, computer science, linguistics and cognitive psychology, the article argues that both phenomena rely upon creating illusions of meaning that users mistake for the underlying primary phenomenon. I then explore four implications of this conception of both phenomena. Firstly, both rely on human tendencies of conceptual pareidolia resulting in the erroneous perception of meaningful linguistic legal patterns from nebulous inputs. Secondly, both rely upon the confidence heuristic, the human cognitive bias for treating confidence as a proxy for competence. Thirdly, both succeed when the primary concern is with the form of the output and not its content. Fourthly, both rely heavily upon the magical thinking of users and the desire for the promise of the approach to be real. The article argues that the legal context helps to reveal a solution for the problems caused by both phenomena as it is only where users possess sufficient legal and technological literacy that it becomes possible to reveal to them the illusionary nature of the phenomena.

Z-Magic: Zero-shot Multiple Attributes Guided Image Creator

The customization of multiple attributes has gained popularity with the rising demand for personalized content creation. Despite promising empirical results, the contextual coherence between different attributes has been largely overlooked. In this paper, we argue that subsequent attributes should follow the multivariable conditional distribution introduced by former attribute creation. In light of this, we reformulate multi-attribute creation from a conditional probability theory perspective and tackle the challenging zero-shot setting. By explicitly modeling the dependencies between attributes, we further enhance the coherence of generated images across diverse attribute combinations. Furthermore, we identify connections between multi-attribute customization and multi-task learning, effectively addressing the high computing cost encountered in multi-attribute synthesis. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Z-Magic outperforms existing models in zero-shot image generation, with broad implications for AI-driven design and creative applications.

On Statistical Estimation of Edge-Reinforced Random Walks

Reinforced random walks (RRWs), including vertex-reinforced random walks (VRRWs) and edge-reinforced random walks (ERRWs), model random walks where the transition probabilities evolve based on prior visitation history~\cite{mgr, fmk, tarres, volkov}. These models have found applications in various areas, such as network representation learning~\cite{xzzs}, reinforced PageRank~\cite{gly}, and modeling animal behaviors~\cite{smouse}, among others. However, statistical estimation of the parameters governing RRWs remains underexplored. This work focuses on estimating the initial edge weights of ERRWs using observed trajectory data. Leveraging the connections between an ERRW and a random walk in a random environment (RWRE)~\cite{mr, mr2}, as given by the so-called "magic formula", we propose an estimator based on the generalized method of moments. To analyze the sample complexity of our estimator, we exploit the hyperbolic Gaussian structure embedded in the random environment to bound the fluctuations of the underlying random edge conductances.

Magic in Human-Robot Interaction (HRI)

"Magic" is referred to here and there in the robotics literature, from "magical moments" afforded by a mobile bubble machine, to "spells" intended to entertain and motivate children--but what exactly could this concept mean for designers? Here, we present (1) some theoretical discussion on how magic could inform interaction designs based on reviewing the literature, followed by (2) a practical description of using such ideas to develop a simplified prototype, which received an award in an international robot magic competition. Although this topic can be considered unusual and some negative connotations exist (e.g., unrealistic thinking can be referred to as magical), our results seem to suggest that magic, in the experiential, supernatural, and illusory senses of the term, could be useful to consider in various robot design contexts, also for artifacts like home assistants and autonomous vehicles--thus, inviting further discussion and exploration.