When Career Data Runs Out: Structured Feature Engineering and Signal Limits for Founder Success Prediction

Predicting startup success from founder career data is hard. The signal is weak, the labels are rare (9%), and most founders who succeed look almost identical to those who fail. We engineer 28 structured features directly from raw JSON fields -- jobs, education, exits -- and combine them with a deterministic rule layer and XGBoost boosted stumps. Our model achieves Val F0.5 = 0.3030, Precision = 0.3333, Recall = 0.2222 -- a +17.7pp improvement over the zero-shot LLM baseline. We then run a controlled experiment: extract 9 features from the prose field using Claude Haiku, at 67% and 100% dataset coverage. LLM features capture 26.4% of model importance but add zero CV signal (delta = -0.05pp). The reason is structural: anonymised_prose is generated from the same JSON fields we parse directly -- it is a lossy re-encoding, not a richer source. The ceiling (CV ~= 0.25, Val ~= 0.30) reflects the information content of this dataset, not a modeling limitation. In characterizing where the signal runs out and why, this work functions as a benchmark diagnostic -- one that points directly to what a richer dataset would need to include.

HAD: Heterogeneity-Aware Distillation for Lifelong Heterogeneous Learning

Lifelong learning aims to preserve knowledge acquired from previous tasks while incorporating knowledge from a sequence of new tasks. However, most prior work explores only streams of homogeneous tasks (\textit{e.g.}, only classification tasks) and neglects the scenario of learning across heterogeneous tasks that possess different structures of outputs. In this work, we formalize this broader setting as lifelong heterogeneous learning (LHL). Departing from conventional lifelong learning, the task sequence of LHL spans different task types, and the learner needs to retain heterogeneous knowledge for different output space structures. To instantiate the LHL, we focus on LHL in the context of dense prediction (LHL4DP), a realistic and challenging scenario. To this end, we propose the Heterogeneity-Aware Distillation (HAD) method, an exemplar-free approach that preserves previously gained heterogeneous knowledge by self-distillation in each training phase. The proposed HAD comprises two complementary components, including a distribution-balanced heterogeneity-aware distillation loss to alleviate the global imbalance of prediction distribution and a salience-guided heterogeneity-aware distillation loss that concentrates learning on informative edge pixels extracted with the Sobel operator. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed HAD method significantly outperforms existing methods in this new scenario.

Information-Theoretic Limits of Safety Verification for Self-Improving Systems

Can a safety gate permit unbounded beneficial self-modification while maintaining bounded cumulative risk? We formalize this question through dual conditions -- requiring sum delta_n < infinity (bounded risk) and sum TPR_n = infinity (unbounded utility) -- and establish a theory of their (in)compatibility. Classification impossibility (Theorem 1): For power-law risk schedules delta_n = O(n^{-p}) with p > 1, any classifier-based gate under overlapping safe/unsafe distributions satisfies TPR_n <= C_alpha * delta_n^beta via Holder's inequality, forcing sum TPR_n < infinity. This impossibility is exponent-optimal (Theorem 3). A second independent proof via the NP counting method (Theorem 4) yields a 13% tighter bound without Holder's inequality. Universal finite-horizon ceiling (Theorem 5): For any summable risk schedule, the exact maximum achievable classifier utility is U*(N, B) = N * TPR_NP(B/N), growing as exp(O(sqrt(log N))) -- subpolynomial. At N = 10^6 with budget B = 1.0, a classifier extracts at most U* ~ 87 versus a verifier's ~500,000. Verification escape (Theorem 2): A Lipschitz ball verifier achieves delta = 0 with TPR > 0, escaping the impossibility. Formal Lipschitz bounds for pre-LayerNorm transformers under LoRA enable LLM-scale verification. The separation is strict. We validate on GPT-2 (d_LoRA = 147,456): conditional delta = 0 with TPR = 0.352. Comprehensive empirical validation is in the companion paper [D2].

Rethinking Representations for Cross-Domain Infrared Small Target Detection: A Generalizable Perspective from the Frequency Domain

The accurate target-background separation in infrared small target detection (IRSTD) highly depends on the discriminability of extracted representations. However, most existing methods are confined to domain-consistent settings, while overlooking whether such discriminability can generalize to unseen domains. In practice, distribution shifts between training and testing data are inevitable due to variations in observational conditions and environmental factors. Meanwhile, the intrinsic indistinctiveness of infrared small targets aggravates overfitting to domain-specific patterns. Consequently, the detection performance of models trained on source domains can be severely degraded when deployed in unseen domains. To address this challenge, we propose a spatial-spectral collaborative perception network (S$^2$CPNet) for cross-domain IRSTD. Moving beyond conventional spatial learning pipelines, we rethink IRSTD representations from a frequency perspective and reveal inconsistencies in spectral phase as the primary manifestation of domain discrepancies. Based on this insight, we develop a phase rectification module (PRM) to derive generalizable target awareness. Then, we employ an orthogonal attention mechanism (OAM) in skip connections to preserve positional information while refining informative representations. Moreover, the bias toward domain-specific patterns is further mitigated through selective style recomposition (SSR). Extensive experiments have been conducted on three IRSTD datasets, and the proposed method consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance under diverse cross-domain settings.

ROMAN: A Multiscale Routing Operator for Convolutional Time Series Models

We introduce ROMAN (ROuting Multiscale representAtioN), a deterministic operator for time series that maps temporal scale and coarse temporal position into an explicit channel structure while reducing sequence length. ROMAN builds an anti-aliased multiscale pyramid, extracts fixed-length windows from each scale, and stacks them as pseudochannels, yielding a compact representation on which standard convolutional classifiers can operate. In this way, ROMAN provides a simple mechanism to control the inductive bias of downstream models: it can reduce temporal invariance, make temporal pooling implicitly coarse-position-aware, and expose multiscale interactions through channel mixing, while often improving computational efficiency by shortening the processed time axis. We formally analyze the ROMAN operator and then evaluate it in two complementary ways by measuring its impact as a preprocessing step for four representative convolutional classifiers: MiniRocket, MultiRocket, a standard CNN-based classifier, and a fully convolutional network (FCN) classifier. First, we design synthetic time series classification tasks that isolate coarse position awareness, long-range correlation, multiscale interaction, and full positional invariance, showing that ROMAN behaves consistently with its intended mechanism and is most useful when class information depends on temporal structure that standard pooled convolution tends to suppress. Second, we benchmark the same models with and without ROMAN on long-sequence subsets of the UCR and UEA archives, showing that ROMAN provides a practically useful alternative representation whose effect on accuracy is task-dependent, but whose effect on efficiency is often favorable. Code is available at https://github.com/gon-uri/ROMAN

Square Superpixel Generation and Representation Learning via Granular Ball Computing

Superpixels provide a compact region-based representation that preserves object boundaries and local structures, and have therefore been widely used in a variety of vision tasks to reduce computational cost. However, most existing superpixel algorithms produce irregularly shaped regions, which are not well aligned with regular operators such as convolutions. Consequently, superpixels are often treated as an offline preprocessing step, limiting parallel implementation and hindering end-to-end optimization within deep learning pipelines. Motivated by the adaptive representation and coverage property of granular-ball computing, we develop a square superpixel generation approach. Specifically, we approximate superpixels using multi-scale square blocks to avoid the computational and implementation difficulties induced by irregular shapes, enabling efficient parallel processing and learnable feature extraction. For each block, a purity score is computed based on pixel-intensity similarity, and high-quality blocks are selected accordingly. The resulting square superpixels can be readily integrated as graph nodes in graph neural networks (GNNs) or as tokens in Vision Transformers (ViTs), facilitating multi-scale information aggregation and structured visual representation. Experimental results on downstream tasks demonstrate consistent performance improvements, validating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Property-Level Flood Risk Assessment Using AI-Enabled Street-View Lowest Floor Elevation Extraction and ML Imputation Across Texas

This paper argues that AI-enabled analysis of street-view imagery, complemented by performance-gated machine-learning imputation, provides a viable pathway for generating building-specific elevation data at regional scale for flood risk assessment. We develop and apply a three-stage pipeline across 18 areas of interest (AOIs) in Texas that (1) extracts LFE and the height difference between street grade and the lowest floor (HDSL) from Google Street View imagery using the Elev-Vision framework, (2) imputes missing HDSL values with Random Forest and Gradient Boosting models trained on 16 terrain, hydrologic, geographic, and flood-exposure features, and (3) integrates the resulting elevation dataset with Fathom 1-in-100 year inundation surfaces and USACE depth-damage functions to estimate property-specific interior flood depth and expected loss. Across 12,241 residential structures, street-view imagery was available for 73.4% of parcels and direct LFE/HDSL extraction was successful for 49.0% (5,992 structures). Imputation was retained for 13 AOIs where cross-validated performance was defensible, with selected models achieving R suqre values from 0.159 to 0.974; five AOIs were explicitly excluded from prediction because performance was insufficient. The results show that street-view-based elevation mapping is not universally available for every property, but it is sufficiently scalable to materially improve regional flood-risk characterization by moving beyond hazard exposure to structure-level estimates of interior inundation and expected damage. Scientifically, the study advances LFE estimation from a pilot-scale proof of concept to a regional, end-to-end workflow. Practically, it offers a replicable framework for jurisdictions that lack comprehensive Elevation Certificates but need parcel-level information to support mitigation, planning, and flood-risk management.

LGFNet: Local-Global Fusion Network with Fidelity Gap Delta Learning for Multi-Source Aerodynamics

The precise fusion of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) data, wind tunnel tests data, and flight tests data in aerodynamic area is essential for obtaining comprehensive knowledge of both localized flow structures and global aerodynamic trends across the entire flight envelope. However, existing methodologies often struggle to balance high-resolution local fidelity with wide-range global dependency, leading to either a loss of sharp discontinuities or an inability to capture long-range topological correlations. We propose Local-Global Fusion Network (LGFNet) for multi-scale feature decomposition to extract this dual-natured aerodynamic knowledge. To this end, LGFNet combines a spatial perception layer that integrates a sliding window mechanism with a relational reasoning layer based on self-attention, simultaneously reinforcing the continuity of fine-grained local features (e.g., shock waves) and capturing long-range flow information. Furthermore, the fidelity gap delta learning (FGDL) strategy is proposed to treat CFD data as a "low-frequency carrier" to explicitly approximate nonlinear discrepancies. This approach prevents unphysical smoothing while inheriting the foundational physical trends from the simulation baseline. Experiments demonstrate that LGFNet achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in both accuracy and uncertainty reduction across diverse aerodynamic scenarios.

AstraAI: LLMs, Retrieval, and AST-Guided Assistance for HPC Codebases

We present AstraAI, a command-line interface (CLI) coding framework for high-performance computing (HPC) software development. AstraAI operates directly within a Linux terminal and integrates large language models (LLMs) with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and Abstract Syntax Tree (AST)-based structural analysis to enable context-aware code generation for complex scientific codebases. The central idea is to construct a high-fidelity prompt that is passed to the LLM for inference. This prompt augments the user request with relevant code snippets retrieved from the underlying framework codebase via RAG and structural context extracted from AST analysis, providing the model with precise information about relevant functions, data structures, and overall code organization. The framework is designed to perform scoped modifications to source code while preserving structural consistency with the surrounding code. AstraAI supports both locally hosted models from Hugging Face and API-based frontier models accessible via the American Science Cloud, enabling flexible deployment across HPC environments. The system generates code that aligns with existing project structures and programming patterns. We demonstrate AstraAI on representative HPC code generation tasks within AMReX, a DOE-supported HPC software infrastructure for exascale applications.

Convergent Representations of Linguistic Constructions in Human and Artificial Neural Systems

Understanding how the brain processes linguistic constructions is a central challenge in cognitive neuroscience and linguistics. Recent computational studies show that artificial neural language models spontaneously develop differentiated representations of Argument Structure Constructions (ASCs), generating predictions about when and how construction-level information emerges during processing. The present study tests these predictions in human neural activity using electroencephalography (EEG). Ten native English speakers listened to 200 synthetically generated sentences across four construction types (transitive, ditransitive, caused-motion, resultative) while neural responses were recorded. Analyses using time-frequency methods, feature extraction, and machine learning classification revealed construction-specific neural signatures emerging primarily at sentence-final positions, where argument structure becomes fully disambiguated, and most prominently in the alpha band. Pairwise classification showed reliable differentiation, especially between ditransitive and resultative constructions, while other pairs overlapped. Crucially, the temporal emergence and similarity structure of these effects mirror patterns in recurrent and transformer-based language models, where constructional representations arise during integrative processing stages. These findings support the view that linguistic constructions are neurally encoded as distinct form-meaning mappings, in line with Construction Grammar, and suggest convergence between biological and artificial systems on similar representational solutions. More broadly, this convergence is consistent with the idea that learning systems discover stable regions within an underlying representational landscape - recently termed a Platonic representational space - that constrains the emergence of efficient linguistic abstractions.