Benchmarking Temporal Web3 Intelligence: Lessons from the FinSurvival 2025 Challenge

Temporal Web analytics increasingly relies on large-scale, longitudinal data to understand how users, content, and systems evolve over time. A rapidly growing frontier is the \emph{Temporal Web3}: decentralized platforms whose behavior is recorded as immutable, time-stamped event streams. Despite the richness of this data, the field lacks shared, reproducible benchmarks that capture real-world temporal dynamics, specifically censoring and non-stationarity, across extended horizons. This absence slows methodological progress and limits the transfer of techniques between Web3 and broader Web domains. In this paper, we present the \textit{FinSurvival Challenge 2025} as a case study in benchmarking \emph{temporal Web3 intelligence}. Using 21.8 million transaction records from the Aave v3 protocol, the challenge operationalized 16 survival prediction tasks to model user behavior transitions.We detail the benchmark design and the winning solutions, highlighting how domain-aware temporal feature construction significantly outperformed generic modeling approaches. Furthermore, we distill lessons for next-generation temporal benchmarks, arguing that Web3 systems provide a high-fidelity sandbox for studying temporal challenges, such as churn, risk, and evolution that are fundamental to the wider Web.

Vibe Researching as Wolf Coming: Can AI Agents with Skills Replace or Augment Social Scientists?

AI agents -- systems that execute multi-step reasoning workflows with persistent state, tool access, and specialist skills -- represent a qualitative shift from prior automation technologies in social science. Unlike chatbots that respond to isolated queries, AI agents can now read files, run code, query databases, search the web, and invoke domain-specific skills to execute entire research pipelines autonomously. This paper introduces the concept of vibe researching -- the AI-era parallel to ``vibe coding'' (Karpathy, 2025) -- and uses scholar-skill, a 21-skill plugin for Claude Code covering the full research pipeline from idea to submission, as an illustrative case. I develop a cognitive task framework that classifies research activities along two dimensions -- codifiability and tacit knowledge requirement -- to identify a delegation boundary that is cognitive, not sequential: it cuts through every stage of the research pipeline, not between stages. I argue that AI agents excel at speed, coverage, and methodological scaffolding but struggle with theoretical originality and tacit field knowledge. The paper concludes with an analysis of three implications for the profession -- augmentation with fragile conditions, stratification risk, and a pedagogical crisis -- and proposes five principles for responsible vibe researching.

When Pretty Isn't Useful: Investigating Why Modern Text-to-Image Models Fail as Reliable Training Data Generators

Recent text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models produce visually stunning images and demonstrate excellent prompt following. But do they perform well as synthetic vision data generators? In this work, we revisit the promise of synthetic data as a scalable substitute for real training sets and uncover a surprising performance regression. We generate large-scale synthetic datasets using state-of-the-art T2I models released between 2022 and 2025, train standard classifiers solely on this synthetic data, and evaluate them on real test data. Despite observable advances in visual fidelity and prompt adherence, classification accuracy on real test data consistently declines with newer T2I models as training data generators. Our analysis reveals a hidden trend: These models collapse to a narrow, aesthetic-centric distribution that undermines diversity and label-image alignment. Overall, our findings challenge a growing assumption in vision research, namely that progress in generative realism implies progress in data realism. We thus highlight an urgent need to rethink the capabilities of modern T2I models as reliable training data generators.

RMIT-ADM+S at the MMU-RAG NeurIPS 2025 Competition

This paper presents the award-winning RMIT-ADM+S system for the Text-to-Text track of the NeurIPS~2025 MMU-RAG Competition. We introduce Routing-to-RAG (R2RAG), a research-focused retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) architecture composed of lightweight components that dynamically adapt the retrieval strategy based on inferred query complexity and evidence sufficiency. The system uses smaller LLMs, enabling operation on a single consumer-grade GPU while supporting complex research tasks. It builds on the G-RAG system, winner of the ACM~SIGIR~2025 LiveRAG Challenge, and extends it with modules informed by qualitative review of outputs. R2RAG won the Best Dynamic Evaluation award in the Open Source category, demonstrating high effectiveness with careful design and efficient use of resources.

Overconfident Errors Need Stronger Correction: Asymmetric Confidence Penalties for Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become the leading paradigm for enhancing reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, standard RLVR algorithms suffer from a well-documented pathology: while they improve Pass@1 accuracy through sharpened sampling, they simultaneously narrow the model's reasoning boundary and reduce generation diversity. We identify a root cause that existing methods overlook: the uniform penalization of errors. Current approaches -- whether data-filtering methods that select prompts by difficulty, or advantage normalization schemes -- treat all incorrect rollouts within a group identically. We show that this uniformity allows overconfident errors (incorrect reasoning paths that the RL process has spuriously reinforced) to persist and monopolize probability mass, ultimately suppressing valid exploratory trajectories. To address this, we propose the Asymmetric Confidence-aware Error Penalty (ACE). ACE introduces a per-rollout confidence shift metric, c_i = log(pi_theta(y_i|x) / pi_ref(y_i|x)), to dynamically modulate negative advantages. Theoretically, we demonstrate that ACE's gradient can be decomposed into the gradient of a selective regularizer restricted to overconfident errors, plus a well-characterized residual that partially moderates the regularizer's strength. We conduct extensive experiments fine-tuning Qwen2.5-Math-7B, Qwen3-8B-Base, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct on the DAPO-Math-17K dataset using GRPO and DAPO within the VERL framework. Evaluated on MATH-500 and AIME 2025, ACE composes seamlessly with existing methods and consistently improves the full Pass@k spectrum across all three model families and benchmarks.

F10.7 Index Prediction: A Multiscale Decomposition Strategy with Wavelet Transform for Performance Optimization

In this study, we construct Dataset A for training, validation, and testing, and Dataset B to evaluate generalization. We propose a novel F10.7 index forecasting method using wavelet decomposition, which feeds F10.7 together with its decomposed approximate and detail signals into the iTransformer model. We also incorporate the International Sunspot Number (ISN) and its wavelet-decomposed signals to assess their influence on prediction performance. Our optimal method is then compared with the latest method from S. Yan et al. (2025) and three operational models (SWPC, BGS, CLS). Additionally, we transfer our method to the PatchTST model used in H. Ye et al. (2024) and compare our method with theirs on Dataset B. Key findings include: (1) The wavelet-based combination methods overall outperform the baseline using only F10.7 index. The prediction performance improves as higher-level approximate and detail signals are incrementally added. The Combination 6 method integrating F10.7 with its first to fifth level approximate and detail signals outperforms methods using only approximate or detail signals. (2) Incorporating ISN and its wavelet-decomposed signals does not enhance prediction performance. (3) The Combination 6 method significantly surpasses S. Yan et al. (2025) and three operational models, with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE reduced by 18.22%, 15.09%, and 8.57%, respectively, against the former method. It also excels across four different conditions of solar activity. (4) Our method demonstrates superior generalization and prediction capability over the method of H. Ye et al. (2024) across all forecast horizons. To our knowledge, this is the first application of wavelet decomposition in F10.7 prediction, substantially improving forecast performance.

Energy-Based Injury Protection Database: Including Shearing Contact Thresholds for Hand and Finger Using Porcine Surrogates

While robotics research continues to propose strategies for collision avoidance in human-robot interaction, the reality of constrained environments and future humanoid systems makes contact inevitable. To mitigate injury risks, energy-constraining control approaches are commonly used, often relying on safety thresholds derived from blunt impact data in EN ISO 10218-2:2025. However, this dataset does not extend to edged or pointed collisions. Without scalable, clinically grounded datasets covering diverse contact scenarios, safety validation remains limited. Previous studies have laid the groundwork by assessing surrogate-based velocity and mass limits across various geometries, focusing on perpendicular impacts. This study expands those datasets by including shearing contact scenarios in unconstrained collisions, revealing that collision angle significantly affects injury outcomes. Notably, unconstrained shearing contacts result in fewer injuries than perpendicular ones. By reevaluating all prior porcine surrogate data, we establish energy thresholds across geometries and contact types, forming the first energy-based Injury Protection Database. This enables the development of meaningful energy-limiting controllers that ensure safety across a wide range of realistic collision events.

Watson & Holmes: A Naturalistic Benchmark for Comparing Human and LLM Reasoning

Existing benchmarks for AI reasoning provide limited insight into how closely these capabilities resemble human reasoning in naturalistic contexts. We present an adaptation of the Watson & Holmes detective tabletop game as a new benchmark designed to evaluate reasoning performance using incrementally presented narrative evidence, open-ended questions and unconstrained language responses. An automated grading system was developed and validated against human assessors to enable scalable and replicable performance evaluation. Results show a clear improvement in AI model performance over time. Over nine months of 2025, model performance rose from the lower quartile of the human comparison group to approximately the top 5%. Around half of this improvement reflects steady advancement across successive model releases, while the remainder corresponds to a marked step change associated with reasoning-oriented model architectures. Systematic differences in the performance of AI models compared to humans, dependent on features of the specific detection puzzle, were mostly absent with the exception of a fall in performance for models when solving longer cases (case lengths being in the range of 1900-4000 words), and an advantage at inductive reasoning for reasoning models at early stages of case solving when evidence was scant.

YOLOv10-Based Multi-Task Framework for Hand Localization and Laterality Classification in Surgical Videos

Real-time hand tracking in trauma surgery is essential for supporting rapid and precise intraoperative decisions. We propose a YOLOv10-based framework that simultaneously localizes hands and classifies their laterality (left or right) in complex surgical scenes. The model is trained on the Trauma THOMPSON Challenge 2025 Task 2 dataset, consisting of first-person surgical videos with annotated hand bounding boxes. Extensive data augmentation and a multi-task detection design improve robustness against motion blur, lighting variations, and diverse hand appearances. Evaluation demonstrates accurate left-hand (67\%) and right-hand (71\%) classification, while distinguishing hands from the background remains challenging. The model achieves an $mAP_{[0.5:0.95]}$ of 0.33 and maintains real-time inference, highlighting its potential for intraoperative deployment. This work establishes a foundation for advanced hand-instrument interaction analysis in emergency surgical procedures.

From Labor to Collaboration: A Methodological Experiment Using AI Agents to Augment Research Perspectives in Taiwan's Humanities and Social Sciences

Generative AI is reshaping knowledge work, yet existing research focuses predominantly on software engineering and the natural sciences, with limited methodological exploration for the humanities and social sciences. Positioned as a "methodological experiment," this study proposes an AI Agent-based collaborative research workflow (Agentic Workflow) for humanities and social science research. Taiwan's Claude.ai usage data (N = 7,729 conversations, November 2025) from the Anthropic Economic Index (AEI) serves as the empirical vehicle for validating the feasibility of this methodology. This study operates on two levels: the primary level is the design and validation of a methodological framework - a seven-stage modular workflow grounded in three principles: task modularization, human-AI division of labor, and verifiability, with each stage delineating clear roles for human researchers (research judgment and ethical decisions) and AI Agents (information retrieval and text generation); the secondary level is the empirical analysis of AEI Taiwan data - serving as an operational demonstration of the workflow's application to secondary data research, showcasing both the process and output quality (see Appendix A). This study contributes by proposing a replicable AI collaboration framework for humanities and social science researchers, and identifying three operational modes of human-AI collaboration - direct execution, iterative refinement, and human-led - through reflexive documentation of the operational process. This taxonomy reveals the irreplaceability of human judgment in research question formulation, theoretical interpretation, contextualized reasoning, and ethical reflection. Limitations including single-platform data, cross-sectional design, and AI reliability risks are acknowledged.