Can LLMs Learn Macroeconomic Narratives from Social Media?

This study empirically tests the $\textit{Narrative Economics}$ hypothesis, which posits that narratives (ideas that are spread virally and affect public beliefs) can influence economic fluctuations. We introduce two curated datasets containing posts from X (formerly Twitter) which capture economy-related narratives (Data will be shared upon paper acceptance). Employing Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods, we extract and summarize narratives from the tweets. We test their predictive power for $\textit{macroeconomic}$ forecasting by incorporating the tweets' or the extracted narratives' representations in downstream financial prediction tasks. Our work highlights the challenges in improving macroeconomic models with narrative data, paving the way for the research community to realistically address this important challenge. From a scientific perspective, our investigation offers valuable insights and NLP tools for narrative extraction and summarization using Large Language Models (LLMs), contributing to future research on the role of narratives in economics.

Does Fine-Tuning LLMs on New Knowledge Encourage Hallucinations?

When large language models are aligned via supervised fine-tuning, they may encounter new factual information that was not acquired through pre-training. It is often conjectured that this can teach the model the behavior of hallucinating factually incorrect responses, as the model is trained to generate facts that are not grounded in its pre-existing knowledge. In this work, we study the impact of such exposure to new knowledge on the capability of the fine-tuned model to utilize its pre-existing knowledge. To this end, we design a controlled setup, focused on closed-book QA, where we vary the proportion of the fine-tuning examples that introduce new knowledge. We demonstrate that large language models struggle to acquire new factual knowledge through fine-tuning, as fine-tuning examples that introduce new knowledge are learned significantly slower than those consistent with the model's knowledge. However, we also find that as the examples with new knowledge are eventually learned, they linearly increase the model's tendency to hallucinate. Taken together, our results highlight the risk in introducing new factual knowledge through fine-tuning, and support the view that large language models mostly acquire factual knowledge through pre-training, whereas fine-tuning teaches them to use it more efficiently.

Using Text Injection to Improve Recognition of Personal Identifiers in Speech

Accurate recognition of specific categories, such as persons' names, dates or other identifiers is critical in many Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) applications. As these categories represent personal information, ethical use of this data including collection, transcription, training and evaluation demands special care. One way of ensuring the security and privacy of individuals is to redact or eliminate Personally Identifiable Information (PII) from collection altogether. However, this results in ASR models that tend to have lower recognition accuracy of these categories. We use text-injection to improve the recognition of PII categories by including fake textual substitutes of PII categories in the training data using a text injection method. We demonstrate substantial improvement to Recall of Names and Dates in medical notes while improving overall WER. For alphanumeric digit sequences we show improvements to Character Error Rate and Sentence Accuracy.

Measuring the Robustness of Natural Language Processing Models to Domain Shifts

Large Language Models have shown promising performance on various tasks, including fine-tuning, few-shot learning, and zero-shot learning. However, their performance on domains without labeled data still lags behind those with labeled data, which we refer as the Domain Robustness (DR) challenge. Existing research on DR suffers from disparate setups, lack of evaluation task variety, and reliance on challenge sets. In this paper, we explore the DR challenge of both fine-tuned and few-shot learning models in natural domain shift settings. We introduce a DR benchmark comprising diverse NLP tasks, including sentence and token-level classification, QA, and generation, each task consists of several domains. We propose two views of the DR challenge: Source Drop (SD) and Target Drop (TD), which alternate between the source and target in-domain performance as reference points. We find that in significant proportions of domain shifts, either SD or TD is positive, but not both, emphasizing the importance of considering both measures as diagnostic tools. Our experimental results demonstrate the persistent existence of the DR challenge in both fine-tuning and few-shot learning models, though it is less pronounced in the latter. We also find that increasing the fine-tuned model size improves performance, particularly in classification.

TrueTeacher: Learning Factual Consistency Evaluation with Large Language Models

Factual consistency evaluation is often conducted using Natural Language Inference (NLI) models, yet these models exhibit limited success in evaluating summaries. Previous work improved such models with synthetic training data. However, the data is typically based on perturbed human-written summaries, which often differ in their characteristics from real model-generated summaries and have limited coverage of possible factual errors. Alternatively, large language models (LLMs) have recently shown promising results in directly evaluating generative tasks, but are too computationally expensive for practical use. Motivated by these limitations, we introduce TrueTeacher, a method for generating synthetic data by annotating diverse model-generated summaries using a LLM. Unlike prior work, TrueTeacher does not rely on human-written summaries, and is multilingual by nature. Experiments on the TRUE benchmark show that a student model trained using our data, substantially outperforms both the state-of-the-art model with similar capacity, and the LLM teacher. In a systematic study, we compare TrueTeacher to existing synthetic data generation methods and demonstrate its superiority and robustness to domain-shift. Using the the mFACE dataset, we also show that our method generalizes to multilingual scenarios. Finally, we release a large-scale synthetic dataset with 1.4M examples generated using TrueTeacher.

On the Robustness of Dialogue History Representation in Conversational Question Answering: A Comprehensive Study and a New Prompt-based Method

Most works on modeling the conversation history in Conversational Question Answering (CQA) report a single main result on a common CQA benchmark. While existing models show impressive results on CQA leaderboards, it remains unclear whether they are robust to shifts in setting (sometimes to more realistic ones), training data size (e.g. from large to small sets) and domain. In this work, we design and conduct the first large-scale robustness study of history modeling approaches for CQA. We find that high benchmark scores do not necessarily translate to strong robustness, and that various methods can perform extremely differently under different settings. Equipped with the insights from our study, we design a novel prompt-based history modeling approach, and demonstrate its strong robustness across various settings. Our approach is inspired by existing methods that highlight historic answers in the passage. However, instead of highlighting by modifying the passage token embeddings, we add textual prompts directly in the passage text. Our approach is simple, easy-to-plug into practically any model, and highly effective, thus we recommend it as a starting point for future model developers. We also hope that our study and insights will raise awareness to the importance of robustness-focused evaluation, in addition to obtaining high leaderboard scores, leading to better CQA systems.

RED-ACE: Robust Error Detection for ASR using Confidence Embeddings

ASR Error Detection (AED) models aim to post-process the output of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems, in order to detect transcription errors. Modern approaches usually use text-based input, comprised solely of the ASR transcription hypothesis, disregarding additional signals from the ASR model. Instead, we propose to utilize the ASR system's word-level confidence scores for improving AED performance. Specifically, we add an ASR Confidence Embedding (ACE) layer to the AED model's encoder, allowing us to jointly encode the confidence scores and the transcribed text into a contextualized representation. Our experiments show the benefits of ASR confidence scores for AED, their complementary effect over the textual signal, as well as the effectiveness and robustness of ACE for combining these signals. To foster further research, we publish a novel AED dataset consisting of ASR outputs on the LibriSpeech corpus with annotated transcription errors.

KoBE: Knowledge-Based Machine Translation Evaluation

We propose a simple and effective method for machine translation evaluation which does not require reference translations. Our approach is based on (1) grounding the entity mentions found in each source sentence and candidate translation against a large-scale multilingual knowledge base, and (2) measuring the recall of the grounded entities found in the candidate vs. those found in the source. Our approach achieves the highest correlation with human judgements on 9 out of the 18 language pairs from the WMT19 benchmark for evaluation without references, which is the largest number of wins for a single evaluation method on this task. On 4 language pairs, we also achieve higher correlation with human judgements than BLEU. To foster further research, we release a dataset containing 1.8 million grounded entity mentions across 18 language pairs from the WMT19 metrics track data.